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in 2008 Michael bur saw the crash before anyone else he placed his bets took massive losses at first and nearly everyone thought he was wrong until he wasn't fast forward to today and he's making another huge move he's dumping stocks shifting his money into places no one expected and signaling that something big is coming the real question is is bur about to be right again or is he making another call too early his latest 13f filing shows that he sold over $32 million worth of stock and bought $36 million in new positions but here's what doesn't make sense he's selling his stakes in Chinese giants like Alibaba and jdom yet he's increasing his position in pindu Duo a company in the same niche of business he's trimming healthc care stocks yet making one of his biggest new bets on HCA Healthcare and at a time when most investors are looking for safety he's going against the grain by putting Millions into SD Lauder a high-end luxury Cosmetics brand something about this portfolio shift doesn't add up so what is it what is bur's strategy is this the start of something bigger and most importantly should you be paying attention in this video I'll break down every stock Michael bur just sold and bought what it means and why it matters I'll break down the $32 million in stocks he dumped the $36 million he reinvested and what this shift says about the market is he predicting a crash or just repositioning for a new cycle let's break it down first let's take a look at what he just sold and why he's getting out before it's too late Michael bur rarely sells off stocks without a good reason in this latest filing he unloaded over 32 million dollar worth of stocks with some positions being completely wiped out he sold every single share of Shift 4 payments Olex and real RE shift 4 payments 4 was his largest exit selling off 10 to4 Million worth of stock this company which operates Payment Processing Services has been riding the wave of digital transactions however the fintech space is becoming more competitive and Regulatory pressure is increasing maybe bur saw warning signs that others were ignoring the stock has been volatile and if the economy slows down businesses cutting back on spending could hit companies like shift for hard Olex Ox was another full exit worth 1.4 million this one is interesting Olex is in the beauty sector a space that traditionally does well even in downturns but the company has struggled with Revenue declines and legal battles over product safety it's possible that bur saw this as an unnecessary risk and decided to take the loss before things got worse real real re is another one he abandoned entirely selling off $3.5 million this company specializes in secondhand luxury goods a market that saw massive growth during the pandemic but as inflation squeezes consumer spending luxury resale may not be as resilient as people once thought if buyers start pulling back businesses like real real could see their margins shrink fast beyond the complete exits bur also made some major reductions in stocks he used to be heavily invested in Alibaba bab and JD .
JD both got slashed down 25% and 40% respectively this is a big shift considering how much exposure bur had to Chinese Tech also considering he bought in Q3 China's economy has been facing uncertainty with government crackdowns slowing growth and increasing risks of geopolitical tension but here's the twist bur didn't cut all his Chinese Holdings he actually increased his stake in pindo Duo so what does he see there that he doesn't in Alaba or jd.com this could be because alibaba's price shot up last year and bur wanted to secure a portion of profit and the rest invested another surprising move Molina Healthcare moh which was reduced by 16.67% at first this seems odd given that he increased his investments in other healthc care stocks more on that later but Molina is focused on government spons sponsored health plans like Medicaid and Medicare if bur sees policy changes or budget cuts coming that could explain why he's pulling back there's a clear theme Here burri is moving away from high-risk Tech and speculative growth plays and reducing exposure to companies that rely on discretionary spending that could be a sign that he's expecting economic uncertainty ahead and he doesn't want to be holding stocks that are vulnerable in a downturn but here's where things get really interesting he isn't just selling stocks he's actively reallocating that money into new positions and the companies he's betting on might give us a clue about where he thinks the economy is headed next let's take a look at what Michael bur just bought and why he's putting over $36 million into these stocks one of his biggest new positions Estee Lauder e where he invested around $7.5 million a luxury Cosmetics company might seem like an odd Choice especially when many consumers are cutting back on discretionary spending but historically high-end Beauty Brands tend to hold up well during economic down turns it's called the lipstick effect when people can't afford big luxuries they still indulge in smaller feel-good purchases bur might see STD Lauder as a defensive play in a slowing economy then there's pin dooo PDD where he invested around another $7 million this is where things get really interesting while bur cut his stakes in Alibaba and jd.com he actually increased his position in pindu Duo why one theory is that pindu duo operates differently from the other Chinese e-commerce Giants it focuses on lowcost group buying and has been expanding aggressively into International markets if Chinese consumers en their wallets pindu Duo could benefit by offering cheaper alternatives compared to Alibaba or JD HCA Healthcare HCA is another big buy with bur putting in $4.5 million this one makes a lot of sense healthc care is a defensive sector people need medical care regardless of what's happening in the economy HCA operates hospitals and Health Care Facilities across the US making it a stable business even if econom conditions worsen but you might question he just sold another stock from the healthcare industry the difference as I said is thatoh depends on government sponsored and HCA does not it's clear that bur is shifting a portion of his portfolio into industries that are more Recession Proof then we have Oscar Health oscr Brooker Corp brkr and VF Corp vfc these aren't as massive as his Estee Lauder or pindu Duo positions but they still signal something important Oscar health is an insurance tech company Brooker Corp is in the life scienes and diagnostic space and VF Corp owns well-known apparel Brands like Vans The North Face and Timberland bu is picking stocks in industries that people can't completely cut out of their lives even during tough times another surprising addition magnar Corp magn which operates in the material sector an American Coastal insurance acic which is focused on property insurance materials companies often benefit from infrastructure spending and insurance tends to remain stable even in downturns so what's the bigger picture here the trend is clear bur is Shifting away from speculative Tech and growth stocks and moving into defensive sectors like Health Care consumer staples and insurance the important word here is moving away from speculative he's not completely abandoning risk but he's being much more selective about where he's putting his money let's start with what he's moving away from the fact that he cut his positions in Alibaba and jd.com while keeping pinoo tells us something he's not necessarily bearish on China as a whole but he is losing confidence in the larger more traditional e-commerce Giants and also securing gains there are regulatory risks slower consumer spending or competitive threats that make Alibaba and jd.com weaker bets but pindu duo with its unique group buying model and lower cost offerings might be better positioned for a tougher economic climate then there's shift for payments Olex and real reel these were full exits meaning bur didn't just reduce his exposure he got out completely fintech Beauty and luxury resale may have been great plays during the bull market but there are also sectors that could get hit hard in a downturn if consumers start cutting back spending on these kinds of businesses could slow down fast now let's talk about where he's moving his money the biggest signal here is his shift toward defensive sectors Healthcare now makes up over 24% of its portfolio with stocks like HCA Healthcare Molina Healthcare which though reduced still has some position and Oscar Health Healthcare stocks tend to perform well in uncertain markets because people still need medical care no matter what happens in the economy then there's SD Lauder it might seem like a strange pick but this actually fits the same theme when times get tough people still buy small luxuries a high-end Beauty brand like SD Lauder could be a recession resistant play especially if other discretionary spending slows down and unlike Olex which is losing Revenue Estee Lauder has managed to maintain its yearly Revenue so what does this tell us it looks like bur is bracing for economic uncertainty he's moving away from riskier sectors cutting exposure to speculative Tech and loading up on stocks that tend to hold up in bare markets but is he predicting an outright crash or is this just a shift in Market leadership from high growth stocks to more stable income generating companies to answer that the first big takeaway bur is prioritizing stability over speculation if you look at the stocks he's selling they're mostly companies that rely on strong consumer spending fast growth or Market optimism on the other hand the stocks he's buying Health Care insurance and consumer staples are sectors that people rely on no matter what the economy is doing this could mean he expects a Slowdown Rising inflation or some kind of Market turbulence that makes safer Investments more attractive this shift isn't happening in a vacuum the stock market has been running hot but at the same time we're seeing signs of unstable interest rates Rising debt and consumer spending fatigue if the economy weakens the highflying growth stocks of the last few years could struggle while defensive Industries like health care and insurance could outperform so the question is should everyday investors follow bur's lead the answer isn't that simple bur is known for being early sometimes years early he called the 2008 crash but his bet against the housing market looked like a disaster before it finally paid off he also shorted the stock market in 2021 expecting a major crash only to reverse course when markets stayed resilient so just because he's shifting toward defensive stocks now doesn't mean the market is about to collapse tomorrow but there's still something important here the market has had an incredible run but it doesn't go up forever at some point there will be a shift and when that happens the companies that have been thriving in a booming economy may not be the same ones that perform well in a downturn this doesn't mean you should go sell all your stocks and hide in cash but it does mean that now is a good time to evaluate your portfolio are you overly exposed to high growth high-risk stocks do you have enough stable Investments can hold up if things get Rocky these are the kinds of questions bu's moves should make every investor think about Jeremy Grantham thinks there is a cataclysmic decline ahead click the video on screen to find out
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