저자: RakeshJhunjhunwala · 외국인
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인도 투자 거장 라케시 준준왈라의 초기 투자 경험과 시장 철학을 다룬 인터뷰 Part 2. 1992년 강세장과 2000년 IT 버블, 2003년 약세장 저점 강세 전망 등을 회고하며, 장기적으로 인도 경제 성장에 대한 낙관을 강조함. 1992년: 예산안 발표 직전 포지션 조정 및 예산 발표 후 주식 대량 매수 경험을 회고. 당시 ACC 주식 등을 매수해 큰 수익을 얻었다고 함. 밸류에이션 관점: 50~100배 PER 같은 과열 수준을 현실적으로 보고 매도 판단을 내려야 한다는 원칙 강조. 감정보다 펀더멘털과 시장 심리를 함께 봐야 한다고 언급. 2000년 IT 버블: 소프트웨어주를 많이 매수했으나 고점 부근에서 물려 손실을 봤다고 회고. 과열 신호(PER 120배, 대중의 주식 열풍)를 경계해야 한다고 언급. 공기업(PSU) 민영화: 민영화는 불가피하며 가치주로서 PSU 주식이 저평가되어 있다고 판단. 2000년부터 공격적으로 매수했고 2003년 강세장에서 보상받음. 2001~2003년 약세장: 9·11 이후 공포가 과도하다고 보고 2002~2003년 저점에서 신흥 강세장을 공개적으로 주장한 것이 대표적 콜. 인도 경제 전망: 인도는 인프라·관료주의·부패 등 약점이 있으나 장기적으로 성장할 것이며, 인도 주식시장은 국가 성장과 함께 간다고 봄. 일본 닛케이 사례를 들어 장기 강세 가능성 언급. 리스크 및 조건: 과거 경험상 손실과 실수를 인정하며, 낙관은 필요하지만 과열 시점 판단이 중요하다고 강조. 출연자 전망: 사회자는 자산 자체 예측 없이 인터뷰를 진행. 대상 자산(국내외 종목·지수·금리·환율 등)에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측 발언은 확인되지 않음.
다듬은 글
happens I can't tell you Ramesh be there to understand the very sentiment and everybody from the panwala to Mr nimes in the morning and Mr Kamal all of them extremely all the market players A to Z and I thought and I had made some money I had my net worth had become one and a half to crores so I had the ability to take a risk so then I thought and I took a bet and again I first tell you that on the morning of the budget the budget used to come in the afternoon in the evening at that time I developed cold feet and then I thought Boston I've taken this position and if things were against me and everybody might talk to us bearish so what I did I did I had a lot of long positions and in certain scripts I went short hedge hedged and because I thought if the body doesn't work out as I as I have envisaged it it will damage me financially and then as soon as a budget came I mean the various stocks went up it was clear to you the market was headed higher high and I just I just doubled my positions as soon as the budget came which is out not when not many people know this rackage but I know you go to the printing presses to get a first copy of the budget isn't it true is very very profitable because this time when the relief was given granted to idbi we read it in the fine print and I could manage to buy a really large number of shares between 48 and between 45 and 40.
it's an old habit of yours yeah you must need to find print uh Rakesh let's go back to 1992 which is a defining bull market uh luck and opportunity both struck at the same time for you tell us how you sized up that market well we always knew that first of all we knew the valuations were incredulous no but first you made money in the run-up didn't you yeah then you know after mother's budget came we made some money in trading then I took really a lot of shares I remember I took delivery of 14 shares of ACC and I had no office and I am one of my brothers clerks used to sit in the night and fill the shares and even at those times Rupees at no office night we should fill the shares then less is I sold it 3500 to 10 000.
but I remember that Rakesh but a lot of people once they make money on the long side of the business fall in love with the stocks what made you decide that stocks overpriced and they don't go to the sky actually I will see if you say a container and optimism I will describe myself as a realistic as a realist so what is reality 50 times earnings 45 times earnings 100 times earnings the speculation should teach you to be realistic because she's trading or speculation requires you to accept reality as it is rather than reality as you would like like to have it foreign despite the price tripling from those prices I won't say no regrets Ramesh but now I have learned that you know I will not sell only by fundamentals and opinions I will also sell looking at market conditions psychology that is taught me you know this psychology and but we always knew that this this drive of this rise Beyond you know in January to 92 and Beyond was all being you know it first of all the valuations were incredulous unsustainable you having equities at three times four times replacement cost you could sell 10 lakhs Karnataka ball bearing a closed down company at 80 rupees I know you made a fortune in 1992 we need to make a fortune for television 18 we'll come back we'll chat some more on the Wizards of the last street with Rakesh childrenwala welcome back to the Wizards of the last Street we're talking to the wizard himself Rakesh fast forward 2000 you must have been there didn't you no I won't say Mr beat it was a first time when life and markets where surely up to 2000 I did very well in the 2000 bull run all run I bought a lot of software stocks and I put on delayed because you know even today I am half computer illiterate so I never could understand or comprehend the importance of software I realized in 97 98 and I bought a lot of software stocks and I Source 80 of them at the peak only I was on the wrong foot when the markets went on post 2000 in 2001 when the markets went down yeah that was I was not bearish I was not bullish although I'm not bearish correct but in 2000 also you had those feelings that the market was excessively complacent about technology valuations yeah that was I mean see whenever valuations reach a point in for the 120 times earnings and McKenzie comes out of the report and every grandmother Chacha Chachi everybody into stocks and just lurching to buy stocks it's time to be I was very bullish at PSU stocks that time that was the one call you met that uh the privatization of psu's inevitable like death itself my call was okay privatization is inevitable and even today my college the Privacy inevitable you're on a very small part of the privatization program I think the faster we'd do it the more we'll save for this country anyway you know the valuation the first of all the earning models the domination of public sector undertakings and the valuations and the fact that the growth in earnings because of the domination was it was it done and valuation is Incredibles you could buy you know shipping Corporation at point three book and at a yield of 12 percent and in fact they gave you a one-time dividend that equal the stock price so there were some great bargains available but again there's a mistake that you turn bullish perhaps too early uh kind of gains public sector stocks have given my whole ideally brought aggressively in I got bullish in 2000 I bought aggressively in 2000 in 2002 and we got the reward in 2003.
at the bottom of the bear Market you were the only guy and what I think put you in the Hall of Fame you wrote an article for the economic Times proclaiming uh secular new bull market today of course it's fashionable to say that but at that time you were a lonely voice I have one thing in my nature that when I believe in something I'm not easily convinced if I'm convinced I believe in it and I keep up to it I'm not easily disconnect and you put your money over your mouth and I'm not afraid to put the money on the table and I am you know I'm a opinated character those opinions don't come easily they don't go away easily and they cannot be influenced easily so when you saw after September 11th Ramesh what had recently happened three thousand Americans had died right foot that was Point number one so I thought all the fear post September 11th was originally misplaced second for 10 years the market had not gone anywhere right then you know we had achieved demateralization in the fastest time possible in the world we had a modernized trading system not only the Quantum of profits gonna be done a Dupont analysis the quality of profit set cost but Rakesh post 2001 when you still remain bearish despite the Gloom and dope there's a fear that there was you know Warfare between nations German Warfare biological what does at least in the back of your head but remember I remember you know I think the First Quality in India investors to be an optimist and remember what peterlin says that Wars have come and Terror has come and natural disasters have common company profits have come up so you have to be the Eternal optimistic of your invest in stocks really and that was the kind of Despair the kind of valuations the kind of quality of earnings the increase on the return on Equity had gone up and every company went to was fighting for every profit if I say a profit but a call was not bullish on the markets as much bullish in India isn't that true but let's link to the markets I don't think you're going to achieve a real bull market in any country's stock markets unless the country goes into a bull marketable market India is going to have India's good or secular growth and I don't think that Indian stock markets are going to go up if Indian if India does not develop the Nikki went from 4000 to 40 000 Japan became a second largest economy in the world but what is it that the critics miss that you got I mean a lot of people didn't share your optimism with the Indian economy what was their failing see I think the first thing that most people miss out and I could be wrong the it still the call is still open is the fact that as Indians we are very impatient and we rightly feel that we can have far better growth than what we have I think that makes us lose out in recognizing what we have already achieved and the circumstances in which you achieved I believe India is a runner without shoes we have no infrastructure we have a stifling bureaucracy a lot of corruption in spite of that we are where we are right and if India is built shoes so genius was recognizing that things have changed for the better yeah it was surely and you know this was combined not only with the with the accidentally low valuations right with the with the sheer you know fear of equity Equity was a bad word right and you know the highest number inside of buying and markets at those levels although they were not gaining they were not losing when markets were indicating they come what may they refuse to go down that is the Press is that you have a five ten thousand crore plus uh wealth is that true where Ramesh you know they asked John Paul Getty and one of the longest reins of as the richest man of the world they asked him how much do you have he said if you can count it you don't have it well guys that I know I don't have that kind of wealth I wish I had it God willing I'll have it we'll discuss your strategies we know you're worth a lot more but maybe you get the answer out of the next episode of the Wizards of the last street with Rakesh jinjinvala please do join us
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