저자: RakeshJhunjhunwala · 외국인
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첫 줄: 라케시 준준왈라의 초기 투자 경력과 1992년 예산 전 강세 베팅을 회고하는 인터뷰이며, 구체적 미래 가격 예측은 없다. 1985년 입문 배경: 회계사 출신으로 1985년 주식 시장에 입문했고, 아버지의 조언(친구에게 돈 빌리지 말 것, 말은 곧 채무라는 원칙 등)을 따랐다. 초기 자금 조달: 고객 자금을 연 18% 이자로 빌려 굴린 후 자기 자본을 키웠고, 1989년 무렵 순자산이 약 1.5크로르 수준으로 늘었다고 회고한다. 초기 종목 경험: 타타 계열 등 전력주를 보유했고 배당이 이자 비용 일부를 메웠다는 경험을 설명한다. 세사고(Cesago) 주식을 27~28루피에 매수해 35~36루피까지 오른 사례가 언급된다. 1992년 예산 베팅: 당시 VP 싱 정부의 사회주의적 예산 우려가 시장에 팽배했으나, 그는 VP 싱이 기업 친화적 자유화를 이끈 인물이라 판단해 강세 베팅했다. 예산 발표 직전 불안을 느껴 일부 종목을 헤지했지만, 예산 후 주가 상승을 보고 포지션을 두 배로 늘렸다고 말한다. 리스크/교훈: 헤지와 분산 대응, 사회·정치 불확실성 속 역발상 투자의 중요성을 강조한다. 대상 자산(삼성전자, 코스피 등)에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
foreign to the One-Stop shop where you can rub shoulders with an extraordinary group of men India stressed with this economic Destiny began with these walls taking charge of the large Street learn the incidents and The Inspirations that helped shape them join me Ramesh Damani as you morph into the minds of the Wizards of Dalal Street my guest today is someone who emerged as the young tiger of the financial markets during the harshad Mehta Bull Run of 1992 but by 2000 the Skeptics were on his Trail calling him a has been refusing to slip into Oblivion he used the severe bear Market of 2002 to Caribou himself back into the mainstream by boldly proclaiming the birth of a new bull market the man who they say saw tomorrow Rakesh thanks a lot for joining us today pleasure I want to take the market through your early years in the market you started fairly young in the stock market didn't you I was entering the stock market I'm 1960 born I think my sister got married 1975 remember from that year I used to read the newspaper and I used to see that prices fluctuate and I was always a very inquisitive child and my father always encouraged my inquisitiveness and my father used to do some investing some Trading size to be after him that Daddy why do prices fluctuate why do you buy stocks they used to tell me that read the news and you see something comes about Grass gwalior Lake State College prices go up and downs so because news comes then you know some balance sheets I used to see here what is this balance sheet so a young person never understood much but I used to understand oh share Capital resolve and surplus means very good company has got land money so I had a childhood curiosity and a childhood interest but even a bureaucrat son I mean weren't you propelled into the IIs ifs type of stream well I was able to look at Sun but fortunately I have a very Democratic father and also we are from business background businesses in our blood speculation and trading is in our blood we are from Rajasthan General District and my fathers were democratically very encouraging that and he taught me a lot and he encouraged me to do whatever I found interesting inquisitive but my sense is that when you decided to become a broker say for example he wasn't exactly embracing you yeah maybe even that was Far later when I was about 29 and 1989 90 no he never I tell you I will now forget I became a chat account in 1985 and when I come from a very middle class background my father had no business and I had to make my life myself so he told me after I completed my chart accountancy in 1985 then what do you want to do so I want to go to the stock market so he told me three four things which are very big I mean I think which are the basis of my career today he said don't go to any of my friends don't ask me for any money don't do this I'll do this right that is going to ask anyone for any money ever right don't forget your word is your bond you have a house you can live here you're a shop fellow you're a child accountant you can earn 15 20 000 a month you can look after yourself be Fearless any morally encourage me 1985 is when you entered the market okay it was the first stock which was your original idea well I had no money and my brother was a practicing chart accountants we had a client whom introduced me to and she had a lot of money and she wanted to have announced return so I you know she was very well proved for I said why do you want to you know go into stocks but I can do one thing that bank deposits pay you used to pay about 10 percent that time so I said I told her you will lend me some money I give you 18 interest so she said security to this I said I said I have no security I had 500 rupees in the bank which is what I you know when I saved through my articles and something my father had put in the bank when I was a child so I told her that what I can do is you give me a check of one lakh I give you a security after 15 days then you give me a check of one and a half life again I'll give you a security and after some persuasion she agreed so that's why I got the first two and a half lakhs because we date our self-interest rates for a high 18 and after 15 days we have settlements for 15 days yeah so that's why I give her the secondary but in 89 by the time you for I mean three four years into the market you were now becoming 80 85 to 89 I this lady gave me two and a half lakhs then one other there were Christian gentleman to my still even today I've been 24 interest you know I still had his money he gave me five lakhs I went and gave him a security he returned it to me I told him Mr midnight so you don't know what you're doing you're giving me money I have I'm in the stock market he said no Rakesh I trust you I had this seven and a half lakhs when I learned about 18 lakhs rupees in trading in 1985 86 and investing Trading then the stock market went through a fairly right the logic of the Tata path the yield was greater than the interest yield was greater than also you know the earnings was very good and there was some top there is you know the companies were getting a fixed return in accordance with the electricity act right there was some talk that they will link it to the amount of power generated at those times you know even the percentage of capacity used was Far lower than today is 100 percent utilize correct and there's a good yield 150 rupees I bought there used to give a dividend of 18 rupees that covered part of your interest costs but by 89 you hit your stride I mean you were looking at bigger things it was more than just making a living yeah I went through two three uh you know those barriers I would say depressive years but I never speculated I had a badge I used to go to the ring I used to observe right and you know I also I mean I felt then that the only way then I asked my family for some financial help with the I mean my father said I will stick by what I said you want to go to the stock market right and stock broking was not considered a fashionable profession I can tell you one thing although my you know the I live in I live with my father in that house today in the same house today and when my dad you know he already did not find she helped me it was very critical that I lived in a joint family I got married in 87.
and I had no income at two two three very bad years in the market now that I lost money but I didn't earn much the markets itself didn't give the opportunity give me opportunity and I was very always very careful as always but in 89 what made you make that confident cause there's still good you know so but although I was not earning anything because my father was looking after the house looking after the kitchen and I was living with him I had no problem suppose I was not in the joint family in the market I'd rather take up a job no savings no savings you know I had a savings but if you kept spending it yes and I didn't want to spend it right so then I realized that see the passport to grow this capital and no father is going to give it no father-in-law is going to give it so that Capital had to come through Trading and then that's when I decided then I had a friend Mr Bajaj he was with bullish in so he told me about sisago and I believe that 27 rupees you know cesago and you know the Ironwood prices are fixed annually the prices were announced for the next year and stocks was available at 27 28 rupees so that was really the first fund of my life that I bought about two and a half flag shares of Cesar 27-28 then I got honored to enough lecture 35 36.
what we'll do is we'll take a break when you come back we'll chat some more with Rakesh junjanwala about his contrary and bets welcome back to the Wizards of the last Street we're talking to the wizard himself Rakesh in 89 did he teach you to be a contrarian the us against them philosophy that you've always stood for in the markets aspects are and then if I differ I differ I think in my investment in my my thought of things you know being a contrarian not a rule and not being ruled out but great Fortunes in the market are made when you stand alone against the crowd against the conventional wisdom right and you don't get many an opportunity although you get opportunities I agree with you that the great fortunes are made by standing against the crowd but my idea is not to stand necessarily against the crowd my I'm participating in this bull rallying who were one of the first person to point out of course we get to that later in the uh the show but let's go to 1992 it is a defining period in the Indian stock market budget we finished I can tell you why I was bullish you know I don't know if you know the background that VP Singh had become Prime Minister you know first party first coalition government in the center right and the and the end VP Singh you know the market had welcomed him with a huge rise then there was all talk just as there was last year about the community of socialism but it was a finance minister and the budget is going to be very very socialist oriented and all bull talk that they're going to impose a tax on education and I know that state you know the educational State subject and for revenue of 100 crores and the government coalition government power they are not going to I mean the Constitution so all kind of fears you know the marketing I thought that you know the first part of the liberalization program in 83 was launched by Mr VP saying only way lower the and I thought he always a thakur he's a businessman to understand the business so I thought he will never give a budget which will hurt business and couple of his budgets is finance missiles very good very positive and actually he was the Prime Minister of giving the broad direction to the budget and therefore every and you know everybody was humongously means I can't tell you to be there to understand the very sentiment and everybody from the panwala to Mr nimes all of them extremely bad all the market players A to Z and I thought and I had made some money I had my net worth had become one and a half to crores so I had the ability to take a risk so then I thought and I took a bet and again I must tell you that on the morning of the budget the budget used to come in the afternoon in the evening at that time I developed cold feet and then I thought both that I've taken this position and if things were against me and everybody might talk to is bearish so what I did I did I had a lot of long positions and in certain scripts I went short hedge hedged and because I thought if the body doesn't work on his eye as I have envisaged it it will damage me financially and then as soon as a budget came I mean the weight of stocks went up it was clear to you the market was headed higher high and I just I just doubled my
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