저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
Jim Rogers는 달러 체제 도전과 금·위안화 장기 보유를 강조하며, 단기적으로는 금이 1,000달러 아래로 떨어질 수 있다고 봤다. 미국 무역전쟁은 결국 모두에게 손해이며 트럼프 주변 인사들이 무역전쟁에 열성적이라 우려했다. 금: 1,000달러 하회 가능성을 언급했고, 위기 시 시장 붕괴(마진콜)로 금도 급락할 수 있다고 봤다. 금은 동전 형태로 보유한다고 밝혔다. 위안화: 보유 중이며 달러 대비 상대적으로 덜 하락할 것이라 봤다. 디지털 결제가 중국에서 현금을 대체하고 있다고 진단. 러시아: 루블 표시 국채를 매수했고 주식도 보유, 과거 비관에서 낙관으로 전환. 농업 호황을 예상. 중국: 장기 유망 시장으로 보며 중국 주식이 고점 대비 40~50% 하락해 있어 매수 매력이 있다고 봤다. 중국 정부가 파산을 허용할 것이라 언급. 미국 증시: 단기 한 차례 추가 상승 가능성을 열어두었고 2020년 하반기~2021년 초 하락 가능성을 언급. 출연자 전망: 본인을 '최악의 시장 타이밍 전문가'라 칭하며 예측에 유보적 태도를 보였다.
다듬은 글
US dollar or by the us because of the US dollar so they're looking to to develop competing currencies uh Russia China other countries as well so it is a process this usually takes a while took many years for the US dollar to replace the pound sterling but it is now underway won't happen this year won't happen next year but it's the beginning of another fla for the US dollar Jim um I wanted to ask you and recently you were speaking in a um and you were discussing you know how uh you know digital currencies how pervasive they are in China and you know given how much their in1 and in2 have grown over the past decade I mean it's never before seen as far as the speed and sheer size there's a big camp out there who think that the Yuan will eventually be devalued at some point but you did say and you mentioned in the discussion that you know someday down the line you may end up buying you on you know you know and and I suppose my question is what factors would you have to see before you actually wanted to start buying Yuan and holding your capital in Yuan well I own some in mby uh it's probably my second largest holding of currency I mean it's it's minuscule compared to my US dollar Holdings but uh no I'm I'm already there uh everything may go down against the dollar you know when the turmoil comes and the US dollar goes up a lot everything will go down against it I suspect that the ren M will go down less than anything else but no when those days come when ter when Cur currency turmoil comes again you're going to see a lot of strange gations yeah but but James I had rather own the ren miny than most other current I don't want to own the Euro I don't want to own the pound uh I don't even want to own the Swiss frank you know most currencies are very seriously flawed compared to the ren MBE which also has flaws but in the meantime I own it now as we're still on the topic of the US and China I was interested in getting your perspective on the trade War we're seeing right now where do you see this going I should ask you Elijah we all should ask unfortunately Mr Trump has no clue you know he constantly changes his own mind and his own views uh I do see that he keeps Gathering more and more people around him who are keen on trade Wars so when things get bad again he's going to come up with another trade tariff trade War whatever however you want to call it and in the end we're all going to have serious problems nobody's ever won a trade War it's not good for anybody everybody who's tried it in the past has learned let's stop this as soon as we can but unfortunately Mr Trump doesn't know history and the people around him are very keen on trade War you should worri both be worried we should all be worried the um Jim you often bring up gold I think everybody who interviews you likes to talk about gold because you you definitely were involved in the 1970s 1980 bull market last time and uh this 21st century one you definitely have a lot of commentary out there and internet about it uh oftentimes you talk about you know if this you know turmoil that we just priv private previously discussed comes around you're going to see a lot of gations in currencies possibly see the dollar get stronger like it did in 2008 for short term you might see gold sell off and that that would probably be the opportunity you know we had gold uh go to a low point in 2015 of 10 50 and almost a 50% retracement like you typically talk about in commodity bull markets they don't go up in a straight line they always retrace about 50% um so 1050 has been the interm low recently in late 2015 do you foresee potentially it reaching that again or possibly going lower if we really get some real termoil well James you should ask aijah I'm the world's worst Market timer I'm the horrible short-term Trader I expect go under a thousand at which point I hope I'm smart enough to buy a lot of gold before this is over gold is going to go up a huge amount and whenever people lose confidence in governments or currencies they always have bought gold and silver maybe they shouldn't but who cares they always have and they always will so I I'm looking for another I've never sold any gold I'm looking for another chance to buy more but if if you don't mind me asking people never ask this but I if you don't mind I mean it's kind of a personal question but what type of gold vehicle do you like would do you like bullion do you like coins I mainly buy coins I do have some Futures uh but I uh I mainly buy buy coins because coins are internationally recognizable and easily transportable you know in a crisis and let's hope we don't have a crisis but if we do you've got a block of bullion you can't really go down to the grocery store and buy a loaf of bread guy doesn't know if it's real gold and even if he knows it's gold and wants it he can't make change so coins to me are much better way to to deal with gold one one more followup what's your favorite coin I'm sure you had a preference well I have a few of the US dollar coins the the uh the the I'll show you one The Sovereign uh very good because they're a little smaller and they've been around for two or three hundred years many people in the world know them uh Chinese pandas gold pandas are great because in Asia they're very recognized uh I own others but those are probably the three that I own the most of well thank you now jimm you were talking about how you see gold possibly going under $1,000 What specifically makes you think that it will fall further well if I'm right and we do have this turmoil I'm talking about usually they dump everything uh you know whether we like it or not you can sit there and say all day long look the fundamentals of this are great the margin clerk doesn't care the margin clerk says Mr Rogers I can't help you I got to sell you out and that happens to people and whether we like like it or not again you look back at other bare markets go gold and nearly everything collapses at one point and may not happen this time but it usually does now you mentioned in your talk recently about um eventually government's all pushing toward a digital currencies and such I mean how far out in the future do you expect um for instance you have a daughter in her in her adult life uh do you assume do you presume that she'll be mostly in digital cash will be a novelty thing it will be something that no one even uses I'm quite sure it's already happening if you go to China they don't have C I tried to buy an ice cream in China recently I couldn't because all I had was money cash Ren M and all she could take was you know put your card here on this put your phone here on the spot so in then she gave me the ice cream I wish I'd been buying a Mercedes or something I mean cash has almost disappeared in China and other countries in Asia so it's happening now uh it's happening in Asia faster than other places but that's because Asia is mainly ahead of the certainly ahead of the US in many digital and and internet happenings uh governments love uh having money on the internet because money's expensive as you know they got to print it they got to deal with it they got to transport it etc etc so they love uh internet money and they have much more control you know they can call you up and say James you've been drinking too much coffee this month you know cut back I mean they know everything about you when your money all the money's on the on the internet and they love that I don't like it but governments love when follow up to that in this next Crisis that could come about in the banking system do you see the United States even you know there've been discussions about it but negative interest rates are still out there and you know right now interest rates have been going up and the talk is that they'll raise more this year but I mean maybe that's just to clear the room for dropping rates next time there's a crisis is it possible that the US could possibly ever see nerp well what's going to happen James is when the next Crisis comes uh when things start getting bad everybody's going to call the central bank and say you must save us uh which means you must save me and the government's going to panic the central bank will Panic they're just bureaucrats and and academics they will do whatever they can they lower interest rates buy bonds negative interest rates who whatever they they think they have to do to save the markets the markets will have a very nice rally when that happens but unfortunately rally will not last that'll be the last Peak and then we get out because the market by then will know this is really serious and the market has more money than the central banks and at that point we'll have a nice horrible bare Market yeah now currently do you see that the US um stock market is in a bare Market because if you look at the chart of the Dow it looks um you know it's making lower lows um and it's you know we saw 3 or four months ago um that hug huge correction about 10% so do you see that we've hit the peak for the down Elijah I'm going to tell you again I'm the single worst Market timer you will ever meet I'm the single worst Trader you will ever meet I don't I think that there's at least one more time of the markets going higher but and I'm invested that way but I am I who knows I don't know it would be pretty easy if we could look and say okay this is it but I suspect there's still another rally to come you know it could be caused by lots of things if if North Korea and South Korea settle that's going to cause a lot of euphoria around the world I mean who knows who knows what might cause it and it might not happen but I don't think it's quite over I'm more inclined towards the fall of this year or maybe early next year and Jim I just because I haven't done I mean I've read some of your books but I as far as my Recollections of your experience in the 70s and 80s could you give us a little bit of what your experience was in the commodity markets back then especially pertaining to Precious Metals um one thing that often happens just I'm sorry to jump real quick often happens people talk about the precious metal full Market in 1980 and they just go immediately to the Hunt Brothers but they fail to recognize that all four precious metals spiked within a few months of one another in early 1980s so go ahead I'm sorry well I remembered well um we owned a lot of silver uh we even owned some gold then gold started you know shooting straight up and like everybody else who's been around for a while we started shorting the spike shorted gold in $675 an hour and two weeks later three weeks later it was $875 an hour it was painful and it wasn't a lot of fun of course three years later or two years later it collapsed totally collapsed but no I remember those days very very well I had actually started buying gold for my own self I didn't have much money we even had gold in my closet it was illegal in the early 70s for Americans it quickly became legal no I've been messing around with gold for decades yeah now if you look back you know at the uh 1980s bull market and precious metals what would be like the single uh biggest advice for people who are interested in investing now in precious metals that you'd give for them that you learned back in the 1980s well Elijah forget the 80s I from the history if you've read any history of of the world you know everybody should own some gold as an insurance policy of nothing else everybody all of us have health insurance fire insurance car insurance we hope we never use our fire insurance but if we need it we're glad we have it so gold should be considered is that with that element as far as I'm concerned and if you then you know what you're doing and you get your timing right then you might make a lot of money in Gold but everybody every soul in the world should have some gold and silver in their closet or wherever they want to keep it as an insurance policy and the more you know about gold maybe you get your timing right maybe you'll own a lot of gold if I get it right and gold go it does go under a th I hope I'm smart enough to buy a lot of gold and silver um recently Jim I saw a chart that was put out in the uh gold Community about various M Zer m1s m2s and official gold U backing and looks like today Russian Rubble is the most gold back currency officially in the world I think the mzero account is requires about $2400 an ounce in US dollar gold terms to back up their entire in zero Supply at the current moment uh you know Russia I don't know if you've ever invested there I think you have um you mentioned recently that China is a place in the long term that you think will be a great Market to be invested in um what other Industries or sectors are things that you look out ahead you know next decade or two that you're really interested in well for what it's worth I I own Uh Russian government bonds in Rubles I bought more last this week I just bought bore this week uh again short-term Russian government bonds in Rubles Russia has much less debt than most countries partly because nobody would lend money nobody would lend money to the Soviet Union there's one reason they don't have much debt uh and I see positive changes I should say to you James I was negative on this on Russia for 48 years I was a long-term Bearer now I'm bullish on on Russia and the ruble and government bonds and and and stocks I own Russian shares as well uh agriculture I'm extremely optimistic about not just in Russia you know America's put sanctions on Russia so Russian agriculture is booming now they have to produce their own and they they cannot buy from other people which is f i mean we're shooting ourselves in the foot we the us because now the Russians are making all kind of money from agriculture worldwide agriculture many reasons to buy agriculture worldwide that's probably one of the reasons I mean there are other Industries around the world Chinese pollution is horrible China's filthy they're spending scads of money trying to clean up China I mean there are some industries that are going to do well even if the World falls into a pit you know even if Europe falls into the sea there some industries that are going to do well agriculture Chinese pollution a few others thanks now speaking coming back to China here you've talked about in uh in the presentation that you gave about the future of money you also talked about this um James was uh noting that you see really the most exciting Emerging Markets are North Korea and China and North Korea you can't really invest in so China is the most interesting one that you can invest in so can you expand a little bit on why you see China um being very prosperous in the future oh I also just mentioned Russia I I do have investments in Russia and I bought more Russian rubal bonds last week uh the United States stock market is near its all-time high Germany other major markets are near their all-time highs the Chinese market is 40 or 50% below its all-time high Japan is 50% below its all-time high uh Russia's hated I prefer buying markets that are depressed rather than jumping on a moving bus because when you jump on a moving bus you might get very badly hurt so China's large very large creditor Nation they save over 30% of their income they work from dawn to dusk I mean many things are going right in China that's not to say they're not going to be problems in China when the rest of us have problems there will be uh the Chinese government you know 15 years ago 10 years ago had little debt now even in China there's debt and the Chinese government Beijing has said when we have problems we're going to let people go bankrupt I wish Washington would say that I wish London would say that I wish Tokyo would say that but the Chinese the Chinese Communists are better capitalists than we are because they say they're going to let people go bankrupt and that's going to shock a lot of people including me and I know what's coming so there will be problems in China but in the mean time I had rather buy Chinese shares than us shares well great I I'm kind of running out of questions I I want to thank you for taking the time it's I know it's a little late in Singapore um thanks for meeting up with us this evening but James I'm delighted you run out of questions because I've run out of answers been a great interiew did you want to share with the viewers if they're interested in learning more uh any last thoughts you had and then uh where they can find you online oh
Comments 0