저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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2021년 5월 영상. 미·중 무역전쟁은 실제 전면전으로 번지기보다 미국이 중국보다 잃을 것이 많아 완화될 가능성이 크다고 봄. 중국 수출에서 미국 비중은 과거보다 줄었고 아시아 주요 교역 상대는 이제 중국. 달러는 트럼프 행정부의 경쟁력 목표상 강세가 한두 달 지속되다 약세로 돌아설 것으로 전망. 주식: 미국·글로벌 증시는 2018년 1월 26일 S&P 약 2,872에서 고점을 찍었다고 봄. 붕괴보다는 1969~1982년처럼 등락을 반복하며 하락하는 장기 약세 시나리오 가능성 언급. 중국 주식은 매우 장기적으로 미국 주식보다 선호. 금·은: S&P500 대비 금 비율이 1980년 0.2 수준까지 떨어졌던 점을 들어, 향후 몇 년 내 S&P가 금에 크게 뒤처질 수 있다고 봄. 다만 투자자들이 아직 주식과 암호화폐에 쏠려 있어 금 상승은 시간이 걸릴 수 있음. 은이 기술적으로 금보다 상승 여력이 크다고 봄. 본인은 1980년대 말부터 금을 사 모았고 매도한 적 없음. 자산 인플레이션: 1981년 이후 채권·주식·부동산·예술품이 함께 오른 자산 인플레이션이 계속될 것으로 보나, 부채 문제로 모든 자산이 하락하는 극단적 디플레이션 시나리오도 가능하며 이때 금은 덜 하락하거나 오를 수 있다고 함. 암호화폐: 가치를 전혀 가늠할 수 없다며 향후 90~98%는 무가치해질 수 있다고 봄. 비트코인 가격 조작 의혹 학술연구 언급. 치앙마이 등 주식을 안 하던 사람들까지 암호화폐에 뛰어드는 현상을 과열 경고 신호로 해석. 블록체인 기술 자체는 남을 것으로 봄. 출연자 리스크·조건: 전망 대부분 장기 관점이며 단기 타이밍은 불확실하다고 명시. 금 실물 보유는 장기 분산 목적.
다듬은 글
dear subscribers as you know we shared many information for you and we are studying very hard to find current news for you however i cannot use this channel for future please follow our new channel called as daily news report and watch our video to support us link in description also you can reach the video we shared on daily news report by clicking on the top right button we highly recommend watching subscribing and sharing we will continue to share some news on this channel where we take precautions against some situations for future thank you for supporting us and us trade war that seems to be developing what is your perspective do you think it can get worse from here and a real trade war actually will develop well i doubt that will get as far as a real trade war because i believe that the u.s will realize that actually it has more to lose than china for china the exports to the us are meaningful but they're not as important as they would have been 40 years ago when i went to hong kong in 1973 until the end of the 1980s the saying was if america sneezes asia catches a cold because up to 70 percent of asian exports went to the us directly or indirectly but this is no longer the case nowadays in asia the largest trading partners are actually asian countries all asian countries export more to china than to the us with the exception of india and globally china exports more to commodity producers and to countries that have a free trade agreement with china then to the u.s so the u.s is still an important trading partner but it's no longer the most important trading partner hey dr faber um i just wanted to ask you your thoughts i know this is more of a short term question there's a lot of people out there who are us dollar bullish at least in the short to medium term they think there's going to be a rebound i know last year it devalued 10 percent versus other large trading fiat currencies do you see any any type of rebound on the xy and if so why potentially well there has been a big long position in euros and the short position in u.s dollars in recent weeks and obviously just a talk about the trade war leads to essentially the dollar strengthening but i don't think these strengths will last very long because when you think about it the u.s under mr trump would actually like to make america great again in other words he wants to make america more competitive trump is complaining about the weakness of other currencies in the world in other words that in his view the dollar is too strong compared to other currencies in the world i'm not sure he can think that far but anyway that is the implication so the last thing the u.s administration wants today is to have a strong dollar because that makes the u.s even less competitive so i think that the dollar may strengthen maybe for another month or two and then eventually weaken again as it becomes obvious that uh the other countries with or without tariffs or a trade war remain very competitive now as for the stock market do you believe that asian stocks or specifically chinese stocks are you more bullish on them than the u.s stocks yes in the very long run but i think if we i believe we've seen a high for the u.s stock market and global markets essentially on january 26 2018 with the s p at 2 872.
we're now approximately 200 points lower than we were at the time now the market is unlikely to crash in my opinion but what could easily happen is a market decline as we had between 1969 and 1982. we didn't collapse in those days although we had a major bear market between january 1973 and december 74 almost two years but we didn't have really a crash it was just sliding a slope of hope where markets would go down and then rebound and they would go down lower than a rebound and go down even more and so i think that may be a scenario that may unfold and that's a father i'm looking at a chart that has the dow gold ratio for uh you know 100 years and looking at that time point that you discussed from 69 to 1982 roughly it looks like you know the dow gold ratio back then it reached at a point about 1.4 or so at the peak in january of 1980.
now the dow obviously is not the greatest measure of the stock market because it's 30 rotating companies that get changed out all the time depending on how well they're doing i think ge is the only one that's still around from the original it's been a terrible stock that's true um but you know i'm just looking even s p 500 gold ratio you know right now we're around just two or so roughly s p versus gold but in 1980 it hit 0.2 so if we went back to a situation where it was like 1980 that's a 10 multiplier of gold versus you know s p 500 do you foresee that happening let's say in the 2020s possibly is that potential something that could that could be the peak of this well i could easily foresee that that happening again in the sense that the s p would grossly underperform gold in the years to come that wouldn't surprise me at all and but the point is it may not happen right away i think it may happen in future but it may take maybe a few years until we're there because the the belief right now among investors is very strongly geared towards uh equities globally and especially towards among young investors it's skilled towards cryptocurrencies so at the moment gold and silver are not particularly popular among young investors but i think this will change especially when a major fraud will be revealed in the crypto space that uh people will lose faith in cryptos as a store of value and that they will again buy gold i mean my advice is i don't know when gold will go up i suppose it will go up relative to other assets now there's one point i need to clarify here everybody thinks that asset inflation as we had a century since 1981 for bonds bronze valley since 1981 september 81 and equities august 82 equities rallied over the last 34 years real estate sizes went up arts prices went up collectibles went up and so so people and investors are conditioned that this will continue they may have some arguments about which assets will perform the best but i think that this asset inflation will continue but i'd like to introduce an element where maybe all assets will go down and gold would go down far less than other assets or maybe even increase in value that is a possibility extremely deflationary scenario i'm talking here not necessarily about the huge price deflation but i'm talking here about a huge asset inflation where asset price is really tank that is a possibility because don't forget that this is a subject that is not discussed all that much which is normal towards the end of the global market the subject of debt has taken a back step in other words yeah people mentioned the government sect but then they argue well it's so large already and so far it hasn't caused that it happened you can expand much further and the feds can expand its balance sheet much further and so these things is what people believe but may in fact uh not help asset prices in fact they may depress asset enterprises can you expand on why you see cryptocurrencies falling in the future and people moving out of that space well i didn't say they will fall my sense is that i as a citizen have no idea what these cryptocurrencies should be worth i have really no idea it's a little bit like you and i we would print a new currency or a new bank note say a 500 bank note or one million dollar bank or whatnot and we would restrict the number of bills that we would print to say a million or 10 million or 20 million whatever and our neighbor seeing that we were able to sell these uh freshly printed uh banknotes he says that's a great idea i start my own printing machine he prints also something like new paper currency and so on and so on so forth and the crypto craze has created now more than 1500 different cryptocurrencies and whether they will all be worse anything that is a big question i have my reservations about that now can the one or the other have some value yeah maybe but i don't know what the value will be and if i have no idea what the value will be i'm not terribly interested to invest a large amount of money in this concept yeah i'm not sure if you're familiar with the dr faber i think there was an academic study about mount cox and uh the price of bitcoin going from 150 to a thousand dollars and it's you can google it i think it's called um price uh manipulation in the bitcoin ecosystem it's a long academic study about the data um and no one was you know except for the people who ran mount cox no one got indicted for this so my hunch is that bitcoin traders were just simply emboldened and if you look at the concentration of who owns bitcoins it's only a thousand or so it will own about forty percent of the bitcoin in the world so for them to collude together and ramp the price up and down and make money in futures now on on the comics is it's possible to make money both ways so i'm sure that i can envision yeah as i said i don't know how much it will be worse and what i ca what i have observed however and that should be her warning signal i have a house here in the north of thailand specifically in chiang mai and chiang mai is a city that consists mostly of people who have no share ownership they never own the single bond they never trade foreign exchange and there's just a few maybe you know like a handful of people that i would know that occasionally trade stocks but the bulk of people don't have any interest in stocks they have no money to buy stocks answers and so on they if they have a money they will buy a house but all these people over the last say one year uh people who never speculated they are now all involved in cryptocurrency and this is not just happening here in chiang mai i get emails from people in estonia i get emails from people in hungary and the words in korea in china everywhere in japan they all gamble on these cryptos and whenever the public is so fully involved in one object of speculation it's always a warning signal but anyway the future will tell i don't want to say anything negative about cryptos i don't want to say anything positive i think the blockchain technology is here to stay but it's not new this was developed before and i have no idea about the end value of cryptos i suppose that 90 to 98 of cryptos currency will be worthless but maybe the one or the other will have some value now moving on here you said you're if i heard you right you're bullish on gold and you think that people will move into gold and silver what is your perspective on which is better gold or silver well right now from my technical indicators i watch i think silver has probably the greater upside potential but i'd like to qualify my bullishness by saying i have been buying gold since the late 1980s most of the gold i bought was around 300 an ounce and i continued to buy during the bull market between 1999 and 2011 and i continued to buy i've never sold an ounce of gold for me the price where it's here or goes lower or higher doesn't change my lifestyle but i want to have some reserves that are not held in paper and i hold some gold in switzerland and some here in asia need dr father just to drill down on that for a minute is there a specific type of gold bullying that you prefer i assume you'll go bullying outright yeah i own physical gold yes and some physical but it's in coin form like krugerrand or there are some coins issued by creditors so these are type of uh essentially pure gold investment uh investments great thank you i also got some gold shares oh yeah yes but not much right just for a little bit we'll have a huge move but it hasn't happened yet i think they are again in a range from which they could have say a 30 upside move all right well mark
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