저자: WarrenBuffett · 외국인
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워런 버핏은 현금은 장기적으로 가치가 떨어지는 나쁜 투자이며 좋은 사업 보유가 낫다고 주장한다. 달러는 장기적으로 가치가 하락(인플레이션 경향)하며, 이는 대부분 통화에 해당한다고 설명한다. 다만 모든 자산이 달러 헤지라는 식으로 일반화하지는 않는다. 투자는 모든 것을 맞힐 필요 없이 소수의 명확히 이해하는 기업에 집중하는 것이 중요하다. 많은 기업을 이해할 필요는 없고 몇 번의 옳은 결정이면 충분하다. 금은 67피트 정육면체 규모로 약 7조 달러이며, 같은 가치의 미국 농지와 엑슨모빌 등을 소유하는 편이 낫다고 비교한다. 가치 평가는 주가가 아닌 사업 자체를 먼저 분석해 적정 가치를 산출한 뒤 주가와 비교하는 방식이다. 페트로차이나를 약 1,000억 달러 가치로 보고 매수한 사례를 든다. 나쁜 사업에서 손절이 늦어지는 것을 인정하며, 섬유사업 실패와 덱스터 슈즈 인수 실패(미국 내 생산 중단 간과)를 교훈으로 든다. 자기계발 투자가 최고의 투자이며 커뮤니케이션 능력이 중요하다고 강조한다. 참고: 본 영상은 2016년 자료이며 특정 자산의 단기 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
He's the chairman, CEO, and largest shareholder of Berkshire Hathaway. He's considered to be one of the world's most successful investors. If you want to learn about investment strategies, you want to learn from Warren Buffett. Mentor me, Warren. When you look at the future, there's also the argument made that this is something that goes with your philosophy today.
Get out of cash and get into assets, because we don't know what's going to happen to the dollar. Well, cash is always a bad investment. I mean, when people said cash is king a year ago, I mean, that's crazy. I mean, cash wasn't producing anything, and it was sure to go down in value over time. And then you always want to be sure you have enough.
It's like oxygen. You want to be sure it's around. But you don't need to have excessive amounts of it around. And cash, we will always have enough cash around. But any time we have surplus cash around, I'm unhappy. I mean, I would much rather have good businesses than cash. we've got a chance in the last year if they're about to deploy weekly came in with something over forty billion account we've got about twenty billion now and we've had some earnings so we would put a lot of cash to work and i like that no i'm much further on a good business uh...
that cash uh... and it is a hedge against the dollar You can say all assets are a hedge against the dollar. All you know is that the dollar is going to be worthless 10, 20, 30 years from now. I say worth less, not worthless. You want to watch that. But it will be, you know, and that's true of almost every currency that I can think of.
The question is how much it depreciates in value. But cash is not a place at that. Why is that? The dollar is going to be worth less. Because we'll print more of them in relation to the amount of goods that are moving. You know, if we dropped a million dollars of cash into every household in the United States today, everybody would feel very good, except the people that invest in things that were denominated in dollars.
Exactly. There will be no tendency toward deflation in this country over time, or in virtually any country. A tendency toward inflation. Absolutely. The important thing is to decide, is to be able to define which ones you can come to an intelligent decision on and which ones are beyond your capacity to evaluate.
You don't have to be right about thousands and thousands and thousands of companies. You only have to be right about a couple. I met Bill Gates on July 5th, 1991. We were out in Seattle. And Bill said, you've got to have a computer. And I said, why? And he said, well, he said, you can do your income tax on it.
I said, I don't have any income. Berkshire doesn't pay a dividend. He said, well, you can keep track of your portfolio. And I said, I only have one stock. And he says, it's going to change everything. And I said, well, will it change whether people chew gum? And he said, well, probably not. And I said, well, we'll change what kind of gum they chew.
I said, well, then I'll stick to chewing gum and you stick to computers. I don't have to understand all kinds of business. There's all kinds of business I don't understand. But there's thousands of opportunities there. I did understand the Bank of America. And I'm able to do that. I'm able to understand some given percentage, but Ted Williams wrote a book called The Science of Hitting, and in The Science of Hitting, he's got a diagram, shows him at the plate, and he's got the strike zone divided into 77 squares, each the size of a baseball.
And he says, if I only swing at pitches in my sweet zone, which he shows there, and he has what his batting average would be, which is 400. If he had to swing at low outside pitches, but still in the strike zone, his average would be 230. He said the most important thing in hitting is waiting for the right pitch.
Now, he was at a disadvantage because if the count was 0-2 or 1-2 or so on, even if that ball was down where he was only going to bat 230, he had to swing at it. In investing, there's no called strikes. People can throw Microsoft at me and you name it, any stock, General Motors, and I don't have to swing.
Nobody's gonna call me out on called strikes. I only get a strike called if I swing at a pitch and miss. So I can wait there and look at thousands of companies day after day, And only when I see something I understand, and when I like the price at which it's selling, then if I swing, if I hit it fine, if I miss it, it's a strike.
But it's an enormously advantageous game. And it's a terrible mistake to think you have to have an opinion on everything. You only have to have an opinion on a few things. In fact, I've told students, if when they got out of school, they got a punch card with 20 punches on it, and that's all the investment decisions they got to make in their entire life, they would get very rich, because they would think very hard about each one, and you don't need 20 right decisions to get very rich.
Four or five will probably do it over time. I don't worry too much about the things. I don't understand it. If you understand some of these businesses that are coming along and can spot things on, if you can spot on Amazon, for example, I mean, it's a tremendous accomplishment what Jeff Bezos has done.
And I tip my hat to him. He's a wonderful businessman. He's a good guy, too. But could I have anticipated that he would be the success and 10 others wouldn't be? I'm not good enough to do that. But I don't, fortunately, I don't have to. on Amazon, and I did form an opinion on the Bank of America, and I formed an opinion on Coca-Cola.
I mean, Coca-Cola's been around since 1886. There's 1.8 billion, 1.8 billion eight ounce servings of Coca-Cola products sold every day. Now, if you take one penny and get one penny extra, that's $18 million a day. And 18 million times 365 is 7 billion, three less, 730 billion, or $6,570,000,000. So annually, $6,570,000,000 from one penny.
Do you think Coca-Cola's worth a penny more than Joe's Cola? I think so. And I've got about 127 years of history that would indicate it. So those are the kind of decisions I like to make and you may have an entirely different field of expertise than I would have and probably much more up to date in terms of the kind of businesses that we're seeing about and you can get very rich if you just understand a few of them and understand their future.
The real test of whether you would like it as an investment is whether you would be happy if it never got quoted again, and just in terms of what the asset did for you. I will say this about gold. If you took all of the gold in the world, it would roughly make a cube 67 feet on a side. So if you took all the gold in the world, we could have a cube that went down there 67 feet, 67 feet high, and that would be the whole thing.
Now for that same cube of gold, it would be worth at today's market prices about seven trillion dollars that's probably about a third of the value of all the stocks in the united states so you can have a choice of owning a third of all the stocks in the united states or you can have a choice of owning that little block of gold which can't do anything but kind of shine there and make you feel like midas or creases or something of the sort now for seven trillion dollars there are roughly a billion far acres of farmland in the united states they're valued at about two and a half trillion dollars it's about half the continental united states is farmland uh you could have all of the farm land in the United States, you could have about seven Exxon Mobils, and you could have a trillion dollars of walking around money.
And if you offered me the choice of looking at some 67-foot cube of gold and looking at it all day, you know, maybe touching it in font, fondling it occasionally, you know, and then saying, you know, do something for me. And it says, I don't do anything. I just stand here and look pretty. And the alternative to that was to have all the farmland of the country, everything, cotton, corn, soybeans, seven Exxon Mobils.
Just think of that. Add a trillion dollars of walking around money. I, you know, maybe call me crazy, but I'll take the farmland of the Exxon Mobils. What's your advice about that? You can't constantly sit there and wait and say, oh, it's going to go higher, it's going to go higher. We don't even think about that.
What we think about is how much is it selling for? How much do we think it's worth? When we bought it at $35 billion, effectively, I felt the company was probably worth... At least 100 billion. How did it come to your attention? How do you find a stock like PetroChina? I sit there in my office and I read an annual report, which fortunately was in English, and it described a very good company and told about the oil reserves, told about the refining, told about the chemicals, everything else.
And I sat there and read it, and I thought to myself, this company's worth about $100 billion. Now, I didn't look at the price first. I look at the business first and try and figure out what it's worth, because if I look at the price first, I'll get influenced by that. So I look at the company first.
I try to value it, and then I look at the price, and if the price is way less than what I've just valued at, I'm going to buy it. And how do you value it? Well, that's the trick. But it's essentially what I would pay for the whole business if I could buy it. How do you know when to throw in the towel on an investment or a business?
When to throw in the towel on an... On an investment or a business. Or a business. Yeah, well, what you know is you do it too late. I went in the textile business by accident in 1965, and I threw in the towel about 20 years later, and that was about 20 years too late. there's a great tendency to want to hold on, justify old decisions.
I mean, that's a human trait. And when you really know you've got a bad business is when you have a good manager and you're getting bad results. I mean, when you're getting bad results with a bad manager, you still have to examine the question of whether you can get better results if you've got a better manager.
Usually you can't. I've said in the past, when a... management with a reputation for excellence encounters a business with a reputation for bad economics, it's the reputation of the business that remains intact. And I've proved that many times. There are businesses that are just plain tough. There may be too many competitors, but there's reasons why they don't drop out.
Well, we started out in textiles, and we made over half of the linings for men's suits in the country. We went through World War II and got awards, and Sears Roebuck named us their supplier of the year and all of that sort of thing. And then we'd say, well, we'd like to increase the price of these linings a quarter of a cent a yard.
And Sears would say, it must be out of your mind. There's 10 other guys that will sell it to us at the old price. And nobody ever went into a Sears store and said, I'd like a blue serge suit with a halfway lining. It didn't exist. We had no connection to the consumer. And there are lots of lousy businesses.
And there's lots of wonderful businesses. And my job over the years has been to try and figure out which is which. And I've made plenty of mistakes. I bought a company called Dexter Shoes. In the early 90s, I paid $400-plus million for it, and it made a lot of money before I bought it. But, you know, as soon as I bought it, they pulled some switch or something, and it immediately started losing money.
And it was because of foreign competition and so on, or maybe it was because I owned it, I don't know. And it went to zero. And the worst thing was that I paid for it in stock. So that 400 million in stock I gave at the time is now worth about five billion. So every time Berkshire stock goes down, I feel a little bit better because of my Opportunity lost on this business.
But when I looked at Dexter Shoe, they had a good position in retailers, they turned out good shoes, they had a great workforce, all kinds of things, but I just forgot one thing, that they weren't gonna make shoes in the United States anymore. So you make mistakes, and it does pay to recognize quickly when you've made them.
If you've got a good person running a business and it isn't making any money, you're in the wrong business and you've got to face up to that. Generally speaking, investing in yourself is the best thing you can do. Anything that improves your own talents. Nobody can take it away from you. They can run up huge deficits and the dollar can become worth far less.
You can have all kinds of things happen, but if you've got talent yourself, and you've maximized your talent, you've got a terrific asset. And so that doesn't mean everybody should go to college, but it does mean that any way you find to improve, communication skills are enormously important. I mean, I took a Dale Carnegie course that I paid $100 for and it was worth a college degree.
At least I thought it was. Maybe this interview will convince people otherwise. Thank you guys so much for watching. I made the Mentor Me series because I wanted to spend a little bit more time with super successful people and I hope some of their magic pixie dust rubs off on us. So I'd love to know what you thought of this video and what lessons you learned that you're going to apply to your life and how.
I'm really curious to find out. Leave it in the comments below. I'll join the discussion. Thank you so much for watching. Continue to believe and I'll see you soon.
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