저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
관세 불확실성이 지속되어 주식·채권 모두 장기간 횡보(stagnation)할 가능성이 크며, 2월 고점 재돌파는 당분간 어렵다고 주장. 중국 125% 관세와 10% 기본관세 상황에서 평균 관세율이 상승했고 협상 결과는 불투명. 무역적자는 기축통화 지위 때문에 완전히 해소되기 어렵다는 입장. 연준은 불확실성으로 6월 회의까지 금리를 동결할 가능성이 높고, 경기침체는 배제되지 않았으나 최근 시장 하락폭(약 3~4조 달러 규모)을 근거로 주가가 여전히 높은 수준이 아니라는 점 강조. 주식은 신중, 전반적으로 횡보 전망.
다듬은 글
In this video, Jeremy Seagull shares a cautious outlook on the markets, suggesting that a return to February's highs is unlikely in the near future. He emphasizes that while recent market movements show some signs of recovery, the economic landscape is clouded by uncertainties from tariffs and trade negotiations.
Overall, he asserts that both stocks and bonds will likely experience stagnation for an extended period of time, countering the notion that reaching new market highs will be straightforward. 125% tariff on China, the 10% blanket tariff. The average tariff actually went up yesterday with the raise in China and uh JP Morgan calculated at 23% which right now is higher than the Smooth Holly tariff um uh at this moment.
So, you know, we're not out of the woods on the tariff. I mean, there's, you know, we'll see what gets negotiated. It definitely, you know, will have to be a negotiation with China. I don't know whether Trump holds as many cards as he thinks. Um, uh, he holds on that. Um, but I know that Trump will declare a victory.
And by the way, it is good to the extent that he has 75 countries he will be negotiating with. But the shock of what happened, I don't think you can get that out of uh consumer's mind or investors mind for for quite a while. And um so I don't think we can challenge those February highs um um for quite some time.
And again, that that that is just a situation of people being burned in the past thinking like, okay, we got to wait and see how how this really falls out. Yeah. Well, but the fact is that you still have a a big tariff on you, which is going to going to raise some prices. Um the fact that oh my god, this volatility uh you know, I hadn't seen that.
I didn't expect that. Could that happen again? Uh listen, I've got to be cautious about equities. Um and and by the way, I mean, you know, I don't know if you people listened. Dan Ives was on about a half an hour before Squawkbox, big bull on tech. He said, you know, hey, the this isn't over there. There, you know, this this shock, the the decline in orders, there's still uncertainty.
Now, in my opinion, he's not going to put he's not going to put this back, but uh, you know, July 9th is still a date out there. Uh it it appears the 10% tariff is permanent, which is uh still five times as what we had, you know, before the the the Trump uh uh uh presidency. So that's still although isn't that the 10% isn't that still a temporary permanent if you can negotiate better deals and and get to a position where you feel like there's less inequity that that tariff would eventually get dropped on a maybe country bycountry basis too.
Yes, hopefully that will that is across the board and and we'll see what what happens. Listen, even if we negotiated I mean if every country said let's go to free trade. All right. um US would still have a trade deficit. I mean, it's part of being a reserve currency. We we pump out capital. The world uses it.
They use it for transactions. They use it for liquid assets. Um you know, uh we had a 900 what uh you know, billion dollar trade deficit. If if Trump negotiates and gets, you know, two or 3000 billion dollars back, and you know, all my, you know, colleagues said that's that's crazy. That would be un unbelievable.
That's, you know, that's less than 1% of GDP at best possible. Well, the stock market fell 10%. It's still 10 10 times that amount. Uh 10 10 uh uh $3 trillion, $4 trillion uh below where it was before all this tariff mess is happening. And uh by the way, everyone, maybe recession is off the table. I don't think slowdown is off the table.
Um, and because I mean I I don't think anyone is I mean they're going to take they're going to take recession off the table. No question. Now the Fed is holding. They don't have to worry. You know, they're going to be holding in May and holding until now they're listen with July 9th out there. They'll probably be holding on the June meeting which is an important meeting too.
Um uh because again of that uncertainty. So, we're going to have hold hold hold hold hold hold hold hold hold hold hold hold hold hold hold we're not going to have lower interest rates on that we're not going to have lower interest rates on the refunding of $9 trillion on the debt um you know I don't want to paint a terrible scenario because I'm so happy you know he took off the reciprocal tariffs yesterday but um again I I think it's I think it's going to be tough you know people are talking about new highs now being a you know an an easy goal um and um I I I think the the market's going to be treading water for for quite a while on on uh on stocks and on bonds.
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