저자: BillMillerIV · 외국인
요약 보기
Bill Miller IV는 비트코인에 대해 그 어느 때보다 낙관적이라고 밝힘. 현재 시총 약 1.3조 달러 대비 공정가치 괴리가 커졌다고 주장하며, 미국 재정적자(연 1.8조 달러)와 비교해 비트코인의 적정가치가 훨씬 높다고 봄. 단기 가격 예측은 어렵다면서도 금 대비 최근 부진은 서사 인식의 지연 때문이라고 설명. 장기 관점의 투자와 디지털 자본 관리 체계로서의 비트코인 가치를 강조.
다듬은 글
So, welcome to our program Bill Miller IV, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of Miller Value Partners. Thanks for joining us today, Bill. So, looking back at the speech we just listened to, there was a lot of confidence there. At that time, Bitcoin's market capitalization was $1.3 trillion, largely at the same level today.
Judging by your background, it seems you are still optimistic. So, how has your thesis changed? In fact, I have never been so optimistic in my life. The thesis has n't really changed much, because we have all these global capital management systems with irresponsible actors. Poor capital accounting processes and new technology that emerged 16 or 17 years ago may account for capital better than the historical systems we know.
It's interesting that I watched the clip you just showed: Bitcoin's market cap has n't changed much, but the fundamental situation in the world has gotten much worse, which I think means that the gap between fair value and current price has become wider than it was then. So I'm more optimistic than ever.
When you think of this as a money management system, most people think and ask, "How do I understand this? What is this asset?" In fact, it is a denominator for capital. So, it's not the numerator, it's the denominator. So if you can come up with better systems than Bitcoin for accounting for things, that's great.
But we haven't seen any of those yet. A bunch of imitators followed, and none of them came close to the overall reliability that the current network has. So, I am more optimistic than ever. By the way, about optimism: Bitcoin reached 81 thousand today, but during the previous rebound in late August, you mentioned that this could be partly a withdrawal of funds from the AI sector, and partly liquidity from Japan and US Treasury bonds.
How much of this actually applies to Bitcoin, and how much is it just a story about global liquidity accidentally pushing Bitcoin higher? Well, predicting short-term movements and determining cause and effect is extremely difficult in any major public market. But I think the overall story is that it remains a money management tool .
And so, people look at AI and say that maybe the return on investment there isn't very high. You have to look at Bitcoin very differently as an asset and as a denominator of capital, which is what I mentioned earlier. And, you know, you asked, I think, Tim Draper earlier, what it takes for this ongoing acceptance to happen?
And it is actually happening. That's what winning looks like, you know, we've been in the game for 17 years, it's one of the most effective assets of all time. The fundamental path , as I said, looks as clear, if not better, than ever. One model that I have used before and that I think remains just as relevant is the view of deficits in the United States.
It is the world's reserve currency. The entire market cap of Bitcoin is now about the same size as one year of the world's reserve currency in units that we have to invent , find, produce, borrow, or whatever, right? And so, you know, if you capitalize on that, I don't know what rate you want to apply, but the fair value of Bitcoin is much, much higher.
Um, you know, the gold analogy is still incredibly apt, in my opinion. Not everyone has yet come to the point of really understanding Bitcoin. So the question is : how do we achieve this ? This is a matter of education. It's a matter of more and more people learning about it. This is a question of the fact that there are more and more funerals of people who believe only in capital , backed by violence.
And, you know, every year there are completely new people who believe that Roblox dollars have more value to them than real dollars. So, digital is the direction the world is moving. Well, digital control systems are evolving, and let's, let's keep this train moving. Yes, and you mentioned the US deficit of 1.8 trillion per year, a market cap of about the same size, and at times perhaps even larger than the market cap of Bitcoin.
And we also only make up maybe 10% of the gold market capitalization . So, you know, you're talking about that gap between our current value and fair value. Um, you know, we would certainly agree that going forward, Bitcoin will continue to overtake gold in market cap, take a bite out of it, and also receive significant inflows as the US deficit issues and the turmoil in the Treasury market continue to be mainstreamed; but at the same time, gold has been significantly outperforming Bitcoin for most of this year.
So, at a time when investors are looking for protection against inflation, debt, and currency depreciation, Bitcoin, you know, has been lagging gold for most of this year, until the last few weeks, when it started to outperform gold again. What do you think is the main driver of this phenomenon? Is this simply the cyclical nature of Bitcoin itself, or perhaps you believe there is a delay in the narrative being embraced?
I think this is definitely a delay in the perception of the narrative. There is certainly a cyclical nature associated with halving and other aspects of the protocol. But no, it's definitely a question of people simply not understanding and thinking carefully about the functional value of what we're trying to measure , and whether there's a better way to measure it.
So yes, of course, over the last year or so, gold has outperformed Bitcoin. Perfectly. Why don't we look at it more broadly and think about what the purpose of investing is and why we are saving money. This is necessary to make money in the long run, at least for me it is . And you know, if your goal is to make money tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, I honestly can't even tell you what to buy.
So you need to look bigger, think in long-term terms, understand what you have, why you have it, and what the overall thesis is if you really want to make money in the markets. So I would say it's definitely a narrative delay, and people will get to that. How they've been doing it for the last 20 years.
On the topic of the broader view, you know, there was a lot of controversy surrounding the Fed's decision, wasn't there? This idea that maybe the CPI is coming down a little bit, maybe it's too little too late, maybe they're overreacting to a long-term trend driven by something like oil. How do you interpret this decision?
Do you think a higher rate environment will really help solve inflation problems? How do you think this will affect the drama we are seeing from the Treasury side? I would like to hear your general thoughts on the Fed's decision to raise rates by 25 basis points. Of course. And I know that many Bitcoiners are the type of people who want to " close the Fed." I think that's a bit of a radical view, but let's talk about a related topic, which is immigration, okay ?
I just, we'll go back to the last question . So, the United States is the number one country in the world for immigrants. I think we have more of them than the next four countries combined. There is a reason for this. People come here for the stability of processes, you know? Rule of law, property rights and everything else.
Well, now there's a better way to ensure the stability of your capital processes than ever before. And people are gradually realizing this. Of course? So, you know, I'm not one of those who demands the abolition of the Fed. I think they did a great job with the challenges they faced . So, you know, there are these huge deficits.
They don't have any control over them, right ? They simply have to respond according to their mandates, which are effectively full employment or maximum output and stable prices. Now look at the shock of COVID. There were all sorts of supply shocks, and the only thing they could do was react to them.
And you're asking about the latest rate hike and how it will affect inflation? I don't know . This is a complex system. A very complex system. This current shock, much of the marginal inflation that has emerged, or the bond market's expectations of it for the coming years, has increased over the past 3–6 months.
All this is caused by energy carriers. So, will raising the rate really make a difference here? Unlikely. And the energy will eventually return to a more balanced level. But, you know, they're in a difficult position. They do their best, but I believe there are better ways to account for capital today.
Bill, you mentioned this before, but " intrinsic value" is a term that is often mentioned in this field. When describing Bitcoin, you use the term “ capital management.” What exactly do you mean for those who haven't heard the term before? And why do you think some investors still undervalue this property?
Yes. This brings us back to the general idea of what counts as a measurement system , right? And what are we actually measuring? If you change units every year in a measurement system where their length is, their true value is not reliable enough over time. If you look at the same dollars that could buy a house 50 years ago, they might only be enough for two months of rent now.
So the question is in capital management , why does this happen? Well, it's because of the way our political system works, and it's not a " red" or "blue" issue, it's a process issue where irresponsible politicians make promises. There is not always much accountability for what they say and what they can actually do when they come to power, so there is a big gap here.
And to bridge this gap, new registry units are created every year. So if you think about what constitutes capital and stability, this is not a current process. Is there a better process for managing capital now? Yes, and we are going to do that. You know, many investors are betting on the US economy through the S&P and other indexes, even taking into account the debt and deficit problems .
And I would like to hear your thoughts on whether you believe that the productivity and profitability of the free market, of American companies and corporations, can outpace the fiscal problems of the U.S. government. Do you think we will eventually reach a point where the debt dynamics become too large to ignore?
I think we've reached this point several times in the past. But yes, people do bet on the markets. Do you know what you are really betting on when you invest in the market? It is interesting to look at the components of the market and what determines performance over the long term. Most stocks on the market actually perform worse than the market or index they are part of over their lifetime.
Of course? So what are you actually betting on when you buy the market? You bet on new big ideas that are supposed to surpass everything else, right? Here's a new big idea that now exists and is available for purchase. You know, interestingly as an asset manager, it's still quite difficult to get direct exposure to Bitcoin in our fund.
We can't just buy Bitcoin and make it capital that counts as capital. There are all sorts of laws, tax issues regarding mutual funds, and other things. So , as a professional asset manager, it's still very difficult for me to access it. So how do I do this? Well, I buy certain securities that own Bitcoin, and that's their main idea.
But the bottom line is that it's still a big idea, and it's not even possible to fully participate in it as a retail investor by buying a mutual fund. So, we still have many serious obstacles ahead of us, not only in the educational sphere, but also in the legal sphere. But again, we are making progress and moving forward.
So for now, Wall Street is still focusing on price volatility and traditional metrics. You look at Bitcoin through the prism of value investing. What are your biggest hopes for Bitcoin in the future? What inspires me most is that there is now a denominator for capital that we can all contribute to, and that is not backed by a local monopoly on violence.
Because that's what all fiat currencies are ultimately backed by—the threat of violence: if you don't do what others think you should do, you will be physically punished. And this is actually a very interesting idea that we are all gradually coming to, and I am extremely optimistic about its global significance for humanity.
You know, if you think about the countries that you and I want to spend time in, they're not the ones where the infantry controls the ledger, right? So the further you separate these things , the more civilized society becomes. And the United States is perhaps the place where this is most fully manifested right now.
And now there's a new option, and that's what excites me the most. It was nice talking to you, Bill. Thank you very much for taking the time to see us this morning, and we hope to see you again soon. Thank you very much for inviting me, guys.
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