저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
영상은 M2 통화량 증가율이 2020년 27%에서 현재 약 3%로 급감했다는 점을 근거로 디플레이션 압력과 경기 둔화 위험을 경고한다. 소매 재고 증가와 가격 인하, 원자재(금·구리·목재) 급락, 2008년보다 큰 금융시장 매도세를 근거로 든다. 연준이 과거 볼커식 긴축을 답습하며 금리를 급격히 올렸다고 비판하고, 자동차 대출·Manheim 중고차지수 등 취약 부문을 지적한다. 연준의 입장 변화가 필요하다고 주장한다.
다듬은 글
Arch Invest founder and CEO Kathy, this is something you've been talking about for a while, right? That you thought we would actually see not just disinflation, but some deflationary pressures uh in the market and that the Fed should slow down. In today's video, we'll delve into the warning signs that Kathy Wood has highlighted about the current economic situation.
Many people might not realize the severity of the situation, but the signs are there, and it's time to take a closer look. The N2 monetary aggregate serves as critical indicators of the money supply within an economy encompassing various forms of currency including both physical cash and near money assets like saving deposits as money market funds.
In 2020, NT growth underwent an extraordinary surge reaching an astonishing 27%. This surge was largely fueled by the exceptional circumstances surrounding the CO9 pandemic. To combat the economic fallout of the crisis, governments and central banks worldwide enact massive stimulus packages. effectively injecting substantial sum of money into the financial system.
However, the situation took a concerning turn in the subsequent months. The M2 growth rate started to recede gradually as the latest data available. It now hovers at approximately 3% year-over-year. This sharp decline in M2 growth raises significant red flags about the state of the economy and its ability to foster growth and manage inflation.
The reason this trend is troubling lies in its economic implications. In a healthy economic climate, moderate growth in the money supply is essential for supporting economic expansion and maintaining controlled inflation. A buoyant money supply allows individuals and businesses access to capital, enabling investment and spending.
However, with the M2 growth rate at just 3%, this essential fuel for economic growth appears to be in short supply. The impact of low M2 growth is multifaceted. It can lead to diminished economic activity, making it challenges for businesses to secure funding in individuals to access necessary capital.
Moreover, it signifies a lack of the liquidity within the financial system which can in turn result in elevated borrowing cost and diminishing consumer spending. This has the potential to create deflationary pressure where the prices of goods and services could decrease as a result of reduced demand.
Crucially, the rate of money circulations known as the velocity of money is an equally important factor. The observed stagnation and velocity further emphasizes that individuals and businesses are becoming increasingly cautious refraining from spending money freely. This only compounds the challenges of stimulating economic growth and fending off deflation.
The decrease in M2 growth from a remarkable 27% peak in 2020 to a meager 3% year-over-year raises serious concerns about economy's capacity to expand and maintain healthy levels and inflation. The complex interplay of economic circumstances combined with the fiscal and monetary policy responses to the pandemic has set the stage for profound repolution on financial markets and the broader economic landscape.
To understand the impact, we need to consider the velocity of money or how quickly the money circulates. Unfortunately, it's not picking up as expected. Individuals and businesses are becoming more cautious and spending less freely as sign of economic concern. Now, let's talk about the Federal Reserve's policies.
The Fed seems to be taking a page from the past, particularly Chairman Paul Vulkar's playbook. Vulkar successfully tackled inflation, but had 15 years to do it. this time is a 15-month problem driven by unprecedented shocks like the pandemic and supply chain disruption. The Fed's decision to raise interest rate is quite dramatic.
Chairman Vulkar dealt with double-digit rates, but the current increase starting from a low base is about six times larger. This move could have a substantial repercussions. Looking at the global stage, we're seeing international impacts of the Fed's actions. The UK faced a near lemon moment in a financial system mainly due to liabilitydriven investing and risky assumptions about interest rates staying low.
So what are the weak links in the US economy? Tensions and corporations with a high level of depths are potential areas of concern. Auto credit for example is a point of worry in the Manheim used car index shows signs of decline. The retail sector's ongoing challenges served as a microcosm of broader economic dynamics.
The surging inventory levels coupled with the necessity to reduce prices signifies an interconnected economic web. These issues extend far beyond the retail sector as they can trigger a domino effect across different industries ultimately leading to deplationary pressures within the broader economy.
The burgeoning inventories within the retail sectors are a warning sign of overprouction and slackening consumer demand. As retailers grapple with excessive stocks, they are compelled to lower prices to stimulate sales and clear shops. However, this price cutting strategy has repercussion that transcends the retail world, impacting businesses and manufacturers alike, eroding profit margins and potentially culminating the financial strain in workforce reductions.
This cycle produced profitability and heightened price competition can propagate through multiple sectors, contributing to a more comprehensive economic slowdown. The buildup of inventory in the retail sector is a clear sign of overprouction or sluggish demand. When retailers find themselves holding excessive stock, they're compelled to reduce prices to stimulate sales and clear shelves.
This price cutting strategy is often a response to consumers reluctance to spend, potentially stemming from concerns about the economy, job security, or other factors. As retailers reduce prices, it can trigger a domino effect by eroding the profit margin of both businesses and manufacturers, leading to financial strain, and in some cases even layoffs.
The ramification of this inventory issue extend beyond the retail sector. Lower prices for retail products can affect profitability for various industries and result in a general slowdown in economic activity. When businesses encounter reduced demand for their products, they might curtail production or layoff workers exberating the broader economic downturn.
Moreover, this scenario carries the potential for deflationary pressures. Deflation is characterized by a persistent decrease in a general price level, often caused by drop in consumer spending and demand. As prices continue to fall, consumers may postpone purchases, expecting even lower prices in the future.
This behavior can lead to a vicious cycle, further reducing economic activity and increasing deflationary pressures. Now, let's address the contrasting historical trends related to inflation and economic recovery. Conventional wisdom suggests that during robust economic recoveries, inflation tends to decrease as increased productivity leads to more efficient resource allocation and cost reductions.
This phenomenon is often seen as a virtuous cycle where a growing economy fuels productivity improvements. However, the recent economic landscape doesn't conform to this traditional pattern despite economic recovery. The data indicates that inflationary pressures remain prevalent rather than receding.
Several factors may contribute to this anomaly. For example, supply chains disruption and the consequences of the co9 pandemic have created imbalances in production and distribution leading to price increases. Additionally, substantial fiscal stimulus and lower interest rates have injected more money into the economy, potentially fueling demand and inflation.
The commodities market, which encompasses a wider range of essential raw materials like gold, copper, and lumber, has experienced a remarkable downturn since reaching its peak. This decline in the value of various commodities, signifies the northworthy shift and potentially reflect deflationary pressures within the broader economy.
Let's break down the situation. Commodity prices are often considered as a barometer of economic health. When these prices fall significantly, it suggests that the demand for raw materials is weakening and over supply might be concerned. Such as an area can be a sign of deplation. A sustained decrease in the general price level of goods and services.
Specifically, the notable decline in gold, copper, and lumber along with the other commodities is indicative of subdued demand for these resources. Copper, for instance, is often referred to as Dr. Copper because of the sensitivity to economic trends. A drop in its price can imply a slowdown in manufacturing and construction which are essential sectors of the economy.
This deflationary pressure in the commodities market is compounded by the response of financial markets. Widespread sell-offs in the financial markets are typically associated with crisis or severe economic concerns. In this case, the decline in commodities prices and broader economic implications have triggered an unusual occurrence, a market sell-off.
The impact on investors have been significant. The losses experienced in financial market are more than double what was seen during the 2008 financial crisis which was one of the most severe economic crisis in its recent history. This level of market turbulence is concerning as it suggests that investors are reacting to a combination of factors including declining commodity prices and potential deflationary risk.
The fall in commodity prices like gold, copper and lumber is a key indicator of deflationary pressures within the economy. The situation has parked a noteworthy sell-off in the financial markets which is typically linked to crisis or significant economic concern. The magnitude of losses experienced by investors exceeded what was observed during the 2008 financial crisis, underscoring the severity and complexity of the current economic landscape.
It feels like we're approaching the pivotal moment, one that might force the Federal Reserve to change its stance. The datadriven approach needs to take into account the deplationary signals in the economy. The fast unity and anonymity may need to give way to a more robust debate to make the right decisions for our economic future.
This wraps up our exploration of Kathy Wood's warning about the economic situation. Stay tuned for more insights and updates. Don't forget to like and subscribe to our channel for the latest informations.
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