Tom Lee: Latest market action is healthy and won't derail the tech trade

요약 보기

SpaceX IPO 전후 기술주 조정은 기관의 현금 확보 매물로 건전하며 기술주 상승 추세는 유지된다는 주장. IPO 흥행이 중요하나 부진해도 시장 고점으로 단정하기 어렵다고 봄. 올해 3단계 시장을 전제로 연중 후반 lockup 만료 시점 조정 가능성과, 신임 Fed 의장 Warsh 정책, 대형 IPO 물량, 향후 유가 공급 부족을 변동성 요인으로 제시.

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01. For more on whether that trade is in serious trouble, let's welcome in Tom Lee. He's Fundstrat's managing partner and head of research. Good to have you. You look at this market and you think what? Well, Scott, I I think the market, of course, is showing a lot of signs of jitters to me. Uh you know, the jitters in front of the SpaceX IPO and also just consolidating all these gains, plus we know there's a lot of future capital going to that's going to be raised by Google, Meta, OpenAI and Anthropic.

02. So, I I think the market's trying to sort of price all this in front of the SpaceX IPO, which is this Friday. I think it's healthy, though, and I I don't think it's actually going to derail the tech trade, either. What's happening in the you know, the chip stocks? Are they the ones where you think there's been the selling is most related to positioning ahead of the IPO that that's coming later this week in SpaceX?

03. How would you assess what's happened there? Uh yeah, that's right, Scott. I mean, SpaceX is $75 billion IPO and because of its index inclusion into the Nasdaq 100, um a lot of institutional funds are now going to have to raise funds to not only buy the IPO, but then to have cash available to actually position size, because they don't know if it's four times oversubscribed, they'll only get 25% of their allocation.

04. But then to get a full market weight position, they're going to have to buy a lot in the aftermarket. I think that cash means selling some of the recent winners. I'd say the good sign, though, is that the memory stocks held above the Friday lows and same thing with the semi. So, I I think that there's basically gut punches being seen there, but I don't think it means that those charts are completely broken.

05. Does the market need SpaceX to trade well in its debut? Um yeah, I I think it it is important, Scott. Um you know, we expect it to trade well because it's an important company and you know the Elon Musk himself is an N of 1 person, but there's also a a pretty good road map for why there's a future growth and a a a very big addressable market.

06. If it trades poorly, I think it's going to give credence to a lot of the skeptics who say, "Well, the market's topping." And you know, uh this marks the top. I'm kind of going to lean against that because I've I've been hearing a lot of folks declaring the top is in. So, I I I'd say as a contrarian, because so many people think SpaceX marks the top, it's probably not the top.

07. You You think the uptrend is still intact to be led by tech? That's right, Scott. I do. I think that this is a dip that's going to be bought. Um as you know, we still expect this to be a three-phase market this year where we have a strong uptrend. I think that continues uh for the foreseeable future.

08. I do think there's a pullback later this year. I'd think it's closer to lockup expiry and and that and that overhang. Um and overall, I do think it's tracking the way we thought, which is 2026 would would be a tough year, but overall a good year. But you're still looking for some Fed-related turbulence or volatility as well.

09. You You were talking about that more as a as a reason why the market would have a pullback more so than lockup expirations for some of these big IPOs. Have you changed your thought process there? Uh Scott, I think it is um three parts that that create that second part drawdown. Uh one is the Fed, the market testing this new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh.

10. I mean, he's going to make his debut this week. But it is really going to be testing his ideas of how to measure inflation and his path forward and especially in the face of what what might be policy that he pursues that is not in sync with with the White House expectations. The second is I think the lockup expirations of all these large IPOs.

11. I think that does represent supply. And the third factor I think is that as much as oil sort of ex- the price has not risen as much as we expected, I do think there's going to be shortages developing later this year that the market's going to grapple with.