Tom Lee: False narrative to think bull market is in trouble

요약 보기

Tom Lee은 최근 조정의 원인으로 AI 트레이드 우려, 대형 기업들의 대규모 유상증자(Google, SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta), 이란 지정학 리스크를 꼽고 강세장은 여전히 건재하다고 주장. 크립토는 AI 보안 취약점과 블록체인 필요성 증가로 장기 서사는 유효하며 최근 부진은 AI로 쏠린 FOMO 때문이라 봄. SpaceX IPO는 시장 고점이 아니며 7조 달러 현금 대기 자금이 흡수할 것이라 전망. SpaceX IPO 참여에 대해서는 긍정적 입장을 보임.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Joining us now is Fundstrat managing partner and CNBC contributor Tom Lee. Tom, good to chat with you. As best as you know or can tell, what happened on Friday and what happened today because those days, 48 trading hours apart, are very very different. Yeah, Brian, as you know, um stocks had done well for some time.

02. So, I think there's a lot of people that are worried about the air gap below because so many stocks moved so quickly. And then jitters emerged. Uh I'd say three jitters emerged uh last week. The first is you know, how strong is the AI trade, especially with some of the guidance that came out of Broadcom.

03. Uh the second, of course, is just the realization that Google is going to raise 80 billion plus SpaceX 75, OpenAI maybe 100, you know, Anthropic 75. And And then Meta, of course, filed as well. So, there's a lot of equity being raised and asking the public to fund that. And the third is, of course, you know, the geopolitical tensions.

04. I think people get generally nervous into a weekend and they're worried about whether there could be something happening in Iran. So, I I think those are the jitters. And as you know, uh we get these pullbacks. You know, in our opinion, and we post we public we commented over the weekend on this. I think it's a false narrative to think the bull market is in trouble.

05. I think the bull market still intact and in very good shape. Tom, it Tom, it's Kelly here back at the studio. And one of the areas that's been obviously most under pressure is crypto. Um and I know that you say people shouldn't give, you know, throw in the towel, but I think all it feels like a lot of the kind of buying velocity has simply left the space.

06. And I'm not sure when it will ever return. Yes. I mean, Kelly, I think people are really disappointed by crypto this year cuz number one, uh they didn't go up when AI was going up. But in some ways, crypto is a downstream story of AI because as AI capabilities go up, you we already hear it from a lot of those AI researchers, it's going to increase the need for blockchain because that's the only way to prove and validate transactions and actually protect us from AI.

07. Um last week, I think that there were some high-profile sort of quote AI security exploits. One that happened on the Orchid suite for Zcash. Um and that caused some panic. I don't know why it should have caused all of crypto to sell off. But keep in mind, AI exploits are happening at a rapid pace and an increasing pace across all of financial services.

08. It's just that the publicly traded banks don't actually reveal the exploits. So, I think that these attack surfaces are increasing everywhere and we have to be mindful of that. And the third is, uh you know, Wall Street is still tokenizing. It's a real It's a It's a big innovation turning money into software, tokenizing equities and real estate.

09. These are composability issues that only happen on blockchain. So, to me, I think the crypto narrative's still in good shape, but you're right. The the excitement and the FOMO's been in AI. You know, Tom, going back to the stock market, seeing some of the Mag 7 stocks down. The Dow is down just a touch.

10. The Nasdaq 100 is still up 2%, but all the averages have come back. We'll likely end the day higher, but if we were to not, if the S&P were to end the day lower after the boom that we had for the first couple of hours today, would in any way that change the way that you look at this market? And if not, what would?

11. Well, Brian, there is going to be a lot of tension in markets until June 12th because I'd say there's a very large camp of our institutional investor clients that would say SpaceX is going to be the market top. Um so they're anticipating the markets to wobble. So what they're going to do is take profits and be cautious onto that date.

12. But um I'd say that history shows that the SpaceX IPO should not actually mark the market top. It's it's actually rare a big IPO marks a top. So to us I think it's actually misplaced concerns. There's still 7 trillion in cash on the sidelines and we already know the book's been filled. High net worth clients have a lot of cash available to buy this IPO.

13. So I think the market's going to not only absorb this IPO really well, but I think the market's going to do well post IPO. If you only had a fixed amount of money, Tom, would you invest in these IPOs? These are uh some of the most important companies led by what they call N of 1 people. I mean, I don't know if there will be another Elon Musk in our generation.

14. So for investors who have not owned Tesla, uh this is a chance for them to have exposure to Elon Musk and all of what he's envisioned and again, the addressable market for AI and especially data center and as you move into space is actually sizable.