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well because I think the economy is going to fall into a severe recession what makes you say that well a you know it's we're overdue right I mean you don't normally have an expansion that lasts as long as this one I think that we're we're the second longest in history and if we go for another year it'll be the longest expansion in history 2008 is when it started to turn around 2009 to be kind of the end of 2009 years in yeah exactly what is a usual expansion and compression I don't know five six years so this one is long but also this one required more government stimulus than any other you know recovery and I don't think we actually recovered I think the government simply you know injected a bunch of cheap money into the economy and exacerbated the real problems but you know Reif lated the bubbles in the stock market and the housing market but you know everybody talks about how the economy is doing so great but it's really not much better than it was under Obama if it's any better at all we've GDP growth for Trump's first year in office last year was 2.3 percent I mean not that great first quarter was 2 percent this quarter might be a better than 3 maybe maybe not but I mean I think it's gonna be the second quarter will probably be the best quarter of the year maybe we're probably gonna go downhill but you know last year was I think the the weakest year of job growth since 2011 so people want to talk about how great everything is but it's more a function of people are hoping things are gonna turn around there's a lot of optimism now but things are gonna get better but I think that the people who are so optimistic a lot of them are gonna be disappointed because we're gonna end up with is a weaker economy the only thing that's really strengthening is inflation inflation is gonna pick up so the cost of living is really gonna be rising as the economy is falling into recession so we get stagflation which is probably the worst possible economic scenario and you know I think that the the left and even the Fed is gonna be able to blame it on Trump because Trump has come in and you know claimed credit for this great economy that he believes we have and he's claimed credit for the record in the stock market but he's basically put his name on a bubble and when it pops you know it's gonna be hard for him to try to blame the next recession on Obama when he's or said hey this is my economy I created it and so people are gonna be disappointed and they're gonna vote I think for another person whose promises change and unfortunately that's gonna come from the left so you think this is gonna happen in the next three years well yeah I mean you know what is what is the bubble what do you think is gonna cause it to crash commercial real estate is it credit what is it well I mean commercial real estate is expensive mean it's in a bubble but that you know that's not gonna cause it I mean airs gonna come out of the bubble I think we would already be in a pretty severe recession now had it not been for Trump winning had Hillary won I think we would already be there but I think what makes you say that well we got a lot of false optimism as a result of of Trump and we did get the tax cuts and the tax cuts you know just like you know any kind of artificial drug you know you can inject yourself and get a little bit of a phony high because remember the tax cuts were paid for with debt we didn't shrink government right if you if you make government smaller that's great then you can cut taxes because now government doesn't need as much money and you can you know you can relieve the taxpayer of the burden of paying for it and that's great but if you just cut taxes but you don't cut government spending and of course what the Trump administration did was was even worse they increased government spending we increased welfare spending we increased warfare spending and so spending is more but they reduced their tax revenue so the deficits are just exploding out of control and those deficits are gonna do more damage to the economy than the tax cuts were benefit except you get the benefit first maybe for the first year and then you start to deal with the pain after that and so I think that's gonna set in you know long before the end of Trump's term so you think that this is what is causing the economy to be in a really at least to look like it's in a really healthy state right now well some of the numbers right some of the numbers look better but beneath the surface again it's not improving just like just like it wasn't improving under Obama that's what laid the foundation for Trump's victory was because Obama and everybody kept talking about how great the recovery was but the average voter knew the that was all a bunch of nonsense because he wasn't living in in that
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