저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
Tom Lee는 오늘 CPI 발표를 결정적 신호라기보다 인플레이션 둔화를 낙관하는 쪽에 힘을 실어준 자료로 해석하며, 강세 시나리오가 우세해지고 있다고 주장한다. 핵심 근거는 CPI 구성항목 중 가격이 실제 하락(디플레이션)하는 비중이 40%로, 10년 평균 38%와 45년 평균 30%를 웃돈다는 점이다. 이를 근거로 선행 인플레이션이 가파르게 내려올 것이라고 본다. 강세 시나리오(Bull case)는 작년 높았던 물가 지표가 빠지면서 인플레이션이 생각보다 빨리 떨어지고, 연준이 쉬어가기(pause)를 편하게 가져가 연착륙(soft landing)이 가능하다는 것이다. 연착륙 확률은 50% 이상으로 본다. 수급 측면에서는 펀드·마진 부채 청산(디레버리징)이 2008년보다 많이 진행됐고, 리테일 머니마켓 현금이 1년간 5,000억 달러 증가해 대기 자금이 많다고 언급한다. 기업 이익은 견조하며, 10년물 금리가 3.3% 수준이라 밸류에이션(PE) 확장이 가능해 주식이 오를 수 있다고 본다. 반대 의견으로 진행자가 제기한 고금리 장기화와 신용 경색 우려에 대해서는, 정치적 압력 등으로 연준이 3% 안팎의 인플레이션을 용인할 시나리오가 나올 수 있어 주식과 이익에 긍정적일 수 있으나 개연성이 높은 본 시나리오는 아니라고 선을 긋는다. 연준 금리 인하 전망에 대해서는 연준 선물이 인하를 반영하는 것은 지역은행 위기 가능성에 대한 확률이 반영된 것이며, 채권시장도 실제 인하를 기대하지는 않는다고 본다. 10년물은 3% 초반대에 묶일 것으로 보며, 10년물이 PE 수준을 결정하는 핵심 변수라고 강조한다. 전반적으로 Tom Lee는 주식 강세 쪽에 무게를 두고 있다.
다듬은 글
some say be careful what you wish for all this is fed member after fed member says it's not going to happen so where does this leave us let's ask Tom Lee he is fun strat's co-founder and head of research he is also a CNBC contributor it is good to see you as always what do you make of this Market reaction today Tom to that CPI print uh Scott you know I think today's CPI print wasn't like a tiebreaker I think there was something that people who are constructive on inflation falling they saw plenty there to like and then there's people in the sticky inflation camp and there's plenty of arguments there so it's sort of been like this all year where it's a game of inches being fought but progressively I do think the bull cases is is prevailing and if I could just point out I think one of the biggest implications for this CPI report is the percentage of components that are actually an outright deflation so if you look at the price level and then where it is now these are off the peak it's actually now hitting 40 percent that's the that's actually well above the 10-year average of 38 percent and the 45-year average of 30 so we're we're actually sort of saying forward inflation should come down pretty sharply is that your bookcase and I was going to ask you what what is the bull case is is it simply that that inflation comes down more sharply than people think the FED is absolutely done we have a soft Landing because that's maybe a lot to ask for uh it is a lot Scott I mean I'd say it's a it's a as some people say it's a narrow path what we think is the bull case is that inflation is falling faster uh than most people realize because we're starting to drop some of the high prints from last year and that's going to allow the fed's pause to become more comfortable for investors because it really leads to a soft Landing I still think that's more than a 50 probability and then when you consider where positioning is you know if you'll get fin or margin debt for instance there's been more liquidation or deleveraging a fin or a margin debt than occurred in 2008 so people are sitting on cash on the sidelines retail money market cash is risen by 500 billion a lot of it before March just in the past year so we've got people sitting on cash and we have a soft Landing we know corporate profits have been holding up nicely so it is a scenario where this the bonds are at 3.3 for the tenure that allows PE to expand and that's why stocks could go up I know but speaking of sitting on using those words the FED is likely they're going to going to be sitting on higher rates for for some time and and even some of the more let's say dovish members the like Austin Goolsby for example says he's already getting quote-unquote Vibes of a of a credit crunch so if it's higher for longer and we've already got some credit issues coming into the system that doesn't sound that bullish to me no it doesn't Scott hire for longer would be tough because again it would still be a lot of tension between those who think something will break and those who don't but what I would point out is that another scenario could emerge and I think it comes from both the Public's outcry about high rates and political pressures is that the FED could end up tolerating inflation settling around three percent I know Powell's publicly dispelled that notion but that does explain why you know the forward curve is where it is versus where we you know the FED tells us interest rate should be that I think there could be a point where the FED could end up tolerating something around low three percent inflation that would be quite good for stocks and profits but I'm not saying that's the probable case but I think that's why things could get better you do you think they end up cutting this year is that is that in any way part of your bull case uh we don't I think you know one reason why the FED Futures are forecasting Cuts is people are assigning a probability of an emergency from a Regional Bank crisis I mean that would not be good for stocks but I think the Bond Market is trying to price that in I don't think anyone in the bond market really thinks there's actually interest rate Cuts coming but they also don't think we're going to be at five percent for the next 10 years so I think the 10-year kind of stays anchored in this low three percent range I don't know where the two-year ends up but it's really going to be the tenure that really drives where PE should be for the stock market
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