저자: Digvijay—라메시아그라왈웰스크리에이션스터디소개 · 외국인
요약 보기
라메시 아그라왈의 '웰스크리에이션 스터디' 29편을 소개. 20% 이상 ROE를 10년 이상 유지한 기업을 블루칩으로 정의하고, 주가가 50% 이상 하락한 블루칩을 '비리시 블루칩'으로 명명. 대폭락 후 외부(업황)·내부(경영) 문제가 해결되는 시점에 매수하면 큰 수익 가능. 기술적 분석(이중바닥, 헤드앤숄더 등)으로 반전 확인 가능. 사례로 BHEL, PNB, 인디안호텔, 타타스틸, 수젠에너지, 마힌드라, IOC 등 언급.
다듬은 글
so recently ramal G did a wealth creation study 29th wealth creation study in that wealth creation study his theme was burish Blue Chips and how they can be potentially a good bet to bet on how they can make you a multibagger mostly and generally people think blue chips are elephants and elephants can't dance but sir tolds that yes they can that only happens due to turnaround and in today's video we are going to understand that only that what a Bist Blue Chips and how you can catch an M potential multibagger even in a blue chip let's begin so what first he talked in his wealth creation study was what is Blue Chip to understand burish Blue Chip first we have to come up with a category of Blue Chip then only we will classify companies to buy to get a potential Blue Chip so he come up with the valuation method that the most of the companies which are doing 20% Roe for more than 10 years are blue chip companies but for that Reliance kind of companies got out because they are doing 9% 10% Roe so he decided to include Nifty companies and do not to remove them because it was getting weird how can he remove such a do chip company so nifty50 companies some large ones and companies who are doing 10% 20% Ari from past 14 years are included in Blue Chip according to him after that he talks Bist after that he talks about Bist Blue Chips what is Bist Blue Chips according to it according to him he says that the stocks which Falls more than 50% and are blue chip according to us are Bish Blue Chips the idea of that he got from he was wanting to look how to do turnover how to catch and turnover he read some book of the person named barish so from there the name got Bish Blue Chip so why company Blue Chip company can fall more than 50% generally they don't fall but they fall like in a crash like 2008 2003 2002 in that the whole Market Falls so you don't have a chance because your portfolio is to Fallen but there are times due to external to the company and internal to the company which makes the share fall and the stock market related external to the company and the internal to the company gets together then the Blue Chip company Falls the most so when that happens you have to wait and to see if you are buying a burish blue stock you have to wait and see that any of this problem is getting resolved or not what can be exteral to the company companies like sales has dropped or some defect has been gotten in the product internal to the company the management is not good uh many things like that so when the management changes or the products get get better and the economic crisis which were going on has finally got resolved in that kind of time situations when all these things are happening together resolving together you buy a blue chip company they give you a very good return then he showed us the example of Blue Chip stocks who have fallen more than 50% what happened in that was usually they got 50% 60% C why why because if there's a share worth 100 rupees if it falls 75% it will fall to 25 but when it will go back again to 100 or to 125 it will go four to six times so that's why it becomes a very good bet and he says that at that times the chances of going round are now very less you are not trying to catch a falling knife remember you're only buying when those issues due to which the company was Fallen has been gotten resolved or you are seeing that this issue issue is being resolved at that time you place your B and due to so much of uh value compression there's not much not much room for the stock to fall so you have a very good base on to bet on means you can do a sizable bet without getting Fierce and says that when you take care of your downside the upside takes care of himself so that's what you have to do after that he shows up the example which happened due to some things like that here's the example of bti airel here you are seeing bti airel was doing 6,000 CR profit but due to Reliance entry it got to minus 3,000 30,000 cres loss but it slowly recovered and the price of BH ta dropped more than 50% at this time when you would have used your brain and entered into that business it would have been proven a multibagger for you another is another is pnb you can see yourself pause the screen and another is Indian Hotel companies due to Corona and other Stuffs the hotels were being set off and because of that the Indian Hotel company was in very loss and the valuations has fallen such that the hotels the cost of the buildings was more than the market cap of the Indian oil Indian hotels so again at that time if you would have applied this strategy of budhist Blue Chips you might have found a multia in Blue Chip after that what happened to this stock this stock from 70 got to 800 nearly around 800 at today's world same for Tata Ste and other companies and here is the example that all were due to external reason now this is an example due to internal reason which is of so in this what happened is examp there is the example given of suon energy the prices of and the problem was with the management too so with Suson energy when the man J changed or did something another and due to tail wi when the wind prices got lower than the Thum up prices th Energy prices and other prices then Suson become a huge beneficiary in that tailwind and you are seeing from where the price of the suon got to where from nearly 5 to 50 although I consider suon uh hung cap so doesn't matter to me whatever happens I won't bent on it and another is example of management a management was destroyed in uh Mahendra and Mahendra Co was changed and after that the profit you were seeing of 75,000 cres got one whatever one cor or1 billion then again got to $135 billion $13 billion all happened due to management the sale price was Fallen more than 50% at this period when it got to one and after that that stock two proved two proved multi bag another example is given of is given of ioc iic where to the management change and you are seeing the change in the stock price and to identify once the stock has you have find a stock which has fallen more than 50% there are two methods to see that the stock is good to bet on for current or not first is the method which is the reason which made it made the sh fall which was for example a management reason so management change uh if it was exteral reason so the external queries are getting soled or not on the basis of that either you can decide or either you can decide on the technical technical analysis here he has told about double bottom double bottom Head and Shoulder Head and Shoulder rounding bottom pattern and many other those kind of 10 lines so same thing can be implied in a small cap or smaller companies which do not come under the category of under the categories of Blue Chip why because it's s choice that s choice that he wanted to make it in a blue chip category now it's your choice that you want to use it in Blue Chip or in a small cap it is just a way to catch turnarounds it is nothing more much than that what happens most of the people forget that there's a term in the markets named turnarounds they just keep chasing growth and from that framework one thing I get in my mind which is Asian pains and Asian pains is also falling a lot and reasons are applying to it so next video one day or two days after this video the video would be presented on Asian pain s analysis based on this framework only and if it is already presented you can check that out and if it is not then you can check the video out to that the quote in which I have talked about the international Court of Warren Buffett focus on Roe not on EPS yes it is
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