저자: TomLee · 외국인
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AI 트레이드의 지속성에 대한 의심은 1994~2000년 인터넷 버블기와 유사해 아직 초기 신뢰 단계라 보며, 연준 금리인하가 주식시장에 우호적이라고 주장. 마진부채 부담과 한국 시장의 마진콜 조정을 언급하며 AI 랠리는 연말까지 지속될 것으로 봄. 엔비디아 실적 전후로 하이퍼스케일러 자본지출과 가이던스가 핵심이라고 강조하고, 주가가 기대치를 앞질러 단기 조정 가능성도 언급. 옵션 전략(강세 대각 스프레드, 풋 스프레드)은 예측이 아닌 설명으로 분류.
다듬은 글
they will perceive the rate cut as a positive signal. So I think this will actually pave the way for further rate cuts. If the Fed is not the most important factor for stock markets right now, then what is? Well, I think the trade around AI remains the most important topic, although people certainly have doubts about its durability.
But you know, if you think back to the period from 1994 to 2000, there were many moments when the history of the Internet and even stocks like Cisco were questioned about their sustainability. And I think we're in that kind of period of doubt right now, but I think it's all still in very good shape.
I also think that the second big problem is the margin debt, which still has to offset that high level of growth, as was the case in Korea, where there was a kind of margin call, and I think that's why the stock market is slowing down now. But I think AI will continue to work powerfully until the end of the year.
Wonderful transition. This morning, Steve Eisman, a famous investor, was on Squawkbox. Here's what he said when asked the big question of the reporting season: what happens if big tech starts cutting capital spending on AI. Nvidia appears to have reported 85% revenue growth last quarter. So if hyperscalers reduce costs, the figure will no longer be 85%.
and maybe it would be good for the long term, but I think the market will go down sharply after such news. It's interesting to hear your thoughts and reactions to this. uh and do you think it's even likely, is it worth discussing, compared to what Google did—raised costs and still got punished. Yes.
Well, on the one hand, I would say that there is some sense in Steve's logic , but the very fact that so many people are saying this is a sign that we are not at the peak yet, because people are questioning the duration of this cycle. So I think this is actually a bullish signal. Secondly, do you know if this is likely?
I would doubt it. in a simple way. I don't want to say anything too basic about options, but I took a 3-week period until September 4th and bought a call option with a strike of 265, slightly " out of the money." And then I looked at the expected movement and sold a call with a strike price of 272 on August 21.
This is a fairly narrow range. It's only $75 wide , but it's a bullish strategy, and if you look at it, it's a two-week spread. So you will have the option to extend the expiration date , but I spent about $5.75. It's probably trading about ten cents lower now. Somewhere around 5.65. But this is the case where you expect a move towards 272.
And you actually get, if the market allows, a chance to extend the term to that, uh, expiration date of August 28th, where you reduce the overall net debit and also the breakeven point of that deal, Tom. So , the bullish diagonal spread gives me about 30 deltas, Tom. OK. Yes, let's break this down. " Bullish" diagonal call spread, uh, for a period of about 21 days before expiration, we buy weekly options for September 4.
A call option with a strike of 265, as Kevin mentioned, is only about a dollar above the current stock price. So, slightly out of the money, and against that in the short-term month options on August 21, expiring in just 7 days, we sell a call option with a strike of 272.5. So, a " bullish" diagonal call spread with a width of $75.
You pay somewhere around 5.75 debit. Here is your risk. So, it's less than the width of the diagonal count spread, right? Diagonal spreads are a combination of two different strategies, right ? vertical spread embedded in a calendar spread. So it has a certain expiration date, but a diagonal call spread of 75 dollars wide is worth about 5.75.
Here is your risk. $575 for the spread. Anything above about 267 would be potentially profitable in this trade. And Kevin mentioned that you can extend the life of such strategies by rolling the short option over to another cycle. Yes? Amazon is one of those names that has three weekly options per week.
Uh , so you could roll them over to weekly options on August 28th, or you could roll them over to weekly options on August 24th. So, this gives you a lot of potential carryovers or adjustments, hopefully creating credits on each of those carryovers, which increases potential returns and reduces risk every time you take out a loan.
Now, you can see here from the risk profile, Kevin wants the stock to go up to 272.5. That's where you will get maximum profitability. But since you are paying less than its width, anything above about 267 will be a profit on this directional "bullish " trade that Kevin offered us. Uh , Kevin, I was a little, uh, aggressive in my version, but with the current IV percentile at about 11%.
So what does this mean? Well, that means we're in the bottom 10% of implied volatility levels over the past 52 weeks, right? So implied volatility fell after the earnings report, and August turned out to be quite good for stocks, with the VIX index at around 14.5. Therefore, I chose a directional strategy , which gives me some flexibility in managing the deal, as I don't have to wait until the expiration date .
Keve, I chose the September monthly option. So , there are 35 days left until the deadline . I have provided myself with a reserve of time. I will buy an in-the-money put option with a strike of 270 in September and sell a put option with a strike of 250 in return to offset some of the cost of buying the bear put.
So, this is a bearish vertical spread on a $20 wide put . I pay about $85 in debit. Here is your risk. $850 on a spread that could go up to $ 2,000 if the price falls below $250. Kevin, I think one of the key points is that I bought a deep in-the- money put option that has a larger negative delta. AI trading has reached a significant point this month.
The argument was simple. Hyperscalers continue to spend, demand for AI is growing, Nvidia continues to beat expectations, and the semiconductor cycle is lengthening. But now the market is approaching another important checkpoint— Nvidia's earnings report. Right now, the most important information may not be the headline earnings numbers.
The big question is what Jensen will say about the sustainability of this spending cycle, because the market is already expecting another strong quarter from Nvidia. The bar is high, so simply beating the marks may not be enough. The real question about Nvidia's earnings is what we see on the hyperscaler side.
Amazon delivered strong revenue growth and, importantly, provided investors with a detailed explanation of where its huge spending is going. Meta has also shown strong results and continues to invest heavily in AI infrastructure, which is important because investors don't just want companies to spend more.
They want evidence that these costs create enough economic value to justify the investment, and that's what makes Nvidia's reports ost cycle. If Nvidia reports another strong quarter and significantly raises its guidance, that's to be expected, but investors will be listening closely to comments on future demand, hyperscaler capex, supply constraints, gross margin, free cash flow, GPU demand, customer commitments, and the expected AI infrastructure lifecycle.
The profit figures tell us what happened. Jensen's comments may tell us what happens next. From a technical perspective, Nvidia's situation is also starting to look much better. The stock has returned above an important moving average and is approaching the previous high near $240 mentioned in the growing discussion, but this poses another problem.
The shares have already risen significantly ahead of the report. So expectations are inflated, and so Nvidia could potentially show great results but still face a short-term pullback. The market does not reward companies simply for being good. He rewards them for being better than investors already expect.
Now let's look at another part of the story that makes Nvidia increasingly unusual. The company is starting to deal not only with chips, but also with the infrastructure around them. The Ohio data center project is a good example. The developers' responsibility is mainly to secure the land, arrange power supply, and build the data center premises.
OpenAI is a customer, the lease is for 20 years, and Nvidia has secured exclusivity for computing equipment at this site. This is important because Nvidia is n't just funding a bunch of GPUs here . The huge capital and financing structure could potentially help make the project easier to finance. There is a simple economic argument behind this project. More computing power allows advanced AI models to learn and operate.
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