저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
NVIDIA가 OpenAI 펀딩 라운드에 약 200억 달러를 투자하는 방향으로 막바지 협상 중이라는 보도가 나왔으며, 젠슨 황 CEO는 이를 둘러싼 갈등설을 부인했습니다. 크래머는 AI 인프라 구축이 계속될 것이며, 이에 따라 AI 공급업체인 NVDA와 AMD가 수혜를 입을 것이라고 주장합니다. 그는 메모리 및 반도체 장비(semicap) 종목 대비 NVDA에 대한 따라잡기 매매(catch-up trade)가 나타날 것으로 봅니다. 전반적으로 AI 인프라에 대해서는 낙관적인 입장이며, 소프트웨어 업종은 AI로 인한 파괴(disruption) 위험에 직면해 있다고 평가합니다. 파이낸셜타임스(FT)는 H200 중국 판매가 정체되고 있다고 보도했지만, 이는 투자 논리를 훼손할 사안은 아닌 것으로 보고 있습니다. 두 번째 영상 구간(FinVid)은 NVIDIA의 장기 전망에 낙관적이며, 2월 25일 실적 발표가 강할 것으로 예상합니다. 또한 IREN에 대해서도 2026~2027년을 바라보며 낙관적이고, 2026년 2분기에 AI 클라우드 매출이 변곡점을 맞을 것으로 전망합니다.
다듬은 글
Nvidia is reportedly closing in on a deal to invest $20 billion chat chat GPT maker open AI. A Bloomberg report says that Nvidia's portion of the latest open AI funding round is close to being finalized. Recent reports suggested brewing tension between the two companies, but Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang played down rumors of drama during an appearance last night on CNBC's Mad Money.
Revenue growth trajectory is going to be unlike anything the world's ever seen. And this is this is a a great investment opportunity. I'm delighted to do it. And working with with open AI, there is no drama. Everything is this round's going to get done. It's going to be the largest round in history.
There's it's going to be over subscribed. It's going to be they're doing terrifically. Nvidia's multi-billion dollar commitment to open AI could be just a portion of that company's new funding round. CNBC reported last month that open AI could raise as much as a hundred billion dollars. But Altman yesterday, Jim, at this AI summit did say that the diffusion was maybe going a little slower than he might have expected.
And of course, you talked to Jensen last night about that whole relationship. Take a listen. No, there's no controversy at all. It's complete nonsense. We love working with open AI. We are incredibly honored and delighted to be able to invest in their next round. And so, they we're we're a privileged that they're inviting us to invest.
For each one of their rounds, we would love to be invited and we would consider of course investing in it. This is one one of the most consequential technology companies in history. And this will by far be one of the most exciting investments. And I'm delighted to be to be invited and we'll consider every single one.
We are we are going to invest in their next round. We're looking forward to uh closing it and he's doing he's doing terrifically. Uh and we will invest in the next round. There's no question about that. Another thing that makes me upset, Jensen, is that perhaps it is possible that there's motivation here to kill the deal, because I'm not hearing anything from either party that sounds like this.
Well, nothing that we're doing on the inside is that dramatic. You know, there's a lot of there's a lot of there's a lot of stories about it. Um but I think that I think that OpenAI and Sam are doing a great job raising this current round. This will be the largest private round ever raised in history.
And I don't know any other company that possibly could do this. I mean, all of this is possible because the amount of off-take, the amount of traffic, the amount of interest that they have in their in their product. What they need more than anything right now is compute. When they have compute, it will directly translates to revenues for them.
Says there's no drama. No, there's no drama. And look, there are When you have a company that has so-called loose lips like a OpenAI, where they're they don't really run the company as if it's some sort of a a prison where you're not allowed to talk. They There's free thinking. There's free thinking there.
They're going to get a reporter from a a somewhat respected wire service gets a call says, "Listen, I don't really like it." And but there is a CEO. His name is Sam Altman. And he works closely with Nvidia. And the only thing that I saw that was maybe uh a little bit difficult for me to understand was they did have a September agreement.
This was the 10 billion 1 gigawatt. And that was not uh I didn't get the clarity from Jensen that that one still will. Right. But it does appear Well, he said it. And that was great, Jim, that they're going to fund for this latest round, which will be and we pointed this out, the largest fundraising round we've ever seen in history, period.
Right. They could but public or private. Um And it looks like they're going to put 20 billion in. And they put 20 in and reports are right about 50 from Amazon. I think we've been reporting that. And then SoftBank we know I've confirmed is Saudi. Is Saudi. You're going to get over 100. As I reported yesterday, they are they are potentially seeking more than 100 billion dollars, which takes us right back to where we started with 100 billion and all the ability their tools they're going to be able to use and the compute they're going to be able to offer, what is that going to mean for all these software companies out there?
I don't know. Well, we'll have to see what what Do customers really want to use AMD's products for their own sake or not? I mean, you can kind of kind of compare with Nvidia's products and I I mean, the AMD stuff is they're the racks are much bigger and they burn more power and and the performance isn't isn't as good and the software ecosystem is not nearly as mature.
And so like if if you can buy Reuben, you know, or whatever, like like why are you buying Helios? Although, I will also say this sort of the PM level like bold call on AMD isn't that hard. It's they're going to go from being a marginal player in AI to a slightly less marginal player in AI. And and for AMD may maybe that's enough.
You know, they go from 4% market share to 10% in a market that's growing to a trillion dollars plus over time. May maybe that's enough. Like so the the the case is simple, but we need to see it. Like we have we haven't seen it yet. I I wanted to ask you about Nvidia cuz it's down again today. What What is What is Stacy, what's wrong with Nvidia?
Why is it sort of marching in place over the last few months and and showing signs of weakness? It's it's really So yeah, there's there's been a bit of a bit of a pausing like the the Nvidias and the Broadcoms of the world that sell the CPUs and the things that have been ripping have actually been the things that are more like around the supply constraints and memory and semi cap and that sort of thing.
And and I kind of understand it. You know, why are they ripping? Well, because they're constrained and they're but and they need it you need them cuz you're going to build all this AI stuff. Great. For who? And presumably, you're going to build it for the Nvidias and and the Broadcoms and and even and AMDs of of of the world, right?
And to my mind there there is an increasing divergence that probably is not sustainable. Like one of them seems to be wrong. Right? And and so I I I suspect that there will be a catch-up trade um on on the Nvidias and and and the like of the world um as the numbers come through as they report and as we get more data points like on the on the ramp as we go through the year.
But there there's a very interesting divergence between those two classes of companies that that's been a little a little bit puzzling. I I I agree. Google, Amazon, Microsoft, these companies are absolute staples. And the people that don't think Nvidia's a value at, you know, just over 20 times forward right now, like I don't know what they're thinking.
But to some extent I I would I would ask then, could you be long both and feel and sleep at night? In other words, can you be long Google saying Gemini's going to win and can you be long Nvidia saying, you know, whoever they're powering, Open AI or whomever else, is also going to win all at the same time?
Yeah, absolutely. Look, I was with a number of the AI leaders yesterday at the Cisco AI Summit. I was talking to Lip-Bu Tan and we were talking about how memory, for instance, there's not going to be any relief there for 3 years at least, 2028, 2029. And the reason that is is because this build-out is going to continue.
So Google, Amazon, we heard from Matt Garman yesterday, they're going to continue to build with Nvidia. And of course they're trying to build their own infrastructure. Google's doing the same thing, Microsoft's doing the same thing. A lot of people want to do this zero-sum thing, Kelly, like, oh, they're going to build their own chips and they're going to stop using Nvidia.
But what's really happening is they're going to build their own chips, they're going to use Nvidia, they're also going to use AMD, and they're going to need all this capacity. So this selling off of anything that delivers energy, memory, compute, it's a little bit crazy. I'm not saying it's wrong and that some of these multiples didn't need to be corrected and that they're not, you know, ripe for a sell-off, but I'm saying AI, the trend, that's like the internet, your last guy said, like this trend is not going away even if prices do come down further.
So you're sticking with the AI suppliers, let's put it that way, the ones who are building out the ecosystem. Quick final question then, what about software? Do you do you just say we'll see? Well, my my answer is AI will eat some software. And this is where you need to be able to pick out the companies that are going to win versus the companies that can be replaced.
I saw D Bos a building monday.com using AI Claude herself. That's a real real problem for some companies. But you know, I look at ServiceNows, I look at Oracles, these are core business and I call them the rules and the rails. Until AI can do both, build the software but also manage that everyday updating the rules and the rails of running these businesses, it's not going to disrupt it.
I see these two things working together. I see Anthropic and ServiceNow partnerships. I see OpenAI Salesforce partnerships. I think ultimately they they need access to the data that these these leaders have. But the re-rating is real Kelly. So the the forward multiples will probably never be what they were at their peak.
& was a rough day in the market for many growth stocks as well as for much of tech. I'm not aware of any specific reason as to why. We do have the president's recent nomination of Warsh to be the next Fed chair. So maybe that's part of it. Warsh has a more hawkish track record compared to the other candidates the president was considering for the position.
And even as Warsh has recently been advocating for lower interest rates, he simultaneously advocated for a multi-trillion dollar reduction in the Fed's balance sheet, which of course is not great for markets in the shorter. Overnight the FT published an article claiming that sales H200 to Chinese customers is stalled due to a US security review.
The article claims Chinese customers are not placing orders with Nvidia until it's clear if they can secure the licenses and under what conditions. I don't know if the story is true or not and I'm just bringing it to your attention so you're aware of it. That said, the FT does have a good track record of accurately reporting on Nvidia China rumors.
So it's worth paying attention to. Nvidia's business is growing strong without China revenue. Therefore, any China revenue would be additional upside to what I think is already a solid long-term setup. And at the same time a lack of China revenue would not be a thesis breaking development. Yesterday we heard from Jensen in an interview with Jim Cramer in which Jensen made clear that Nvidia will be investing in OpenAI's current funding round and that the partnership that was announced with OpenAI back in September is still on.
As a reminder, that partnership is dependent upon how many gigawatts of Nvidia systems that OpenAI deploys. Nvidia will invest $10 billion in OpenAI for each gigawatt that is deployed up to a total of $100 billion. Now, it's up to OpenAI as to how many gigawatts they deploy. Therefore, Jensen cannot tell us the exact amount Nvidia will invest under the partnership because he does not yet know how many gigawatts OpenAI will deploy.
The first gigawatt is set to come online in the second half of this year. Jensen mentioned OpenAI will have another funding round before they go public. Today, we have Alphabet earnings after market close. At the time of making this video, Alphabet has not yet released their earnings. I'm going to try and post another video later tonight and let you know what we learn from the earnings calls as it relates to Nvidia and Alphabet's CapEx guidance.
And then we have Amazon earnings on Thursday, February 5th. I'm also expecting strong CapEx guidance from Amazon given AWS executives commenting about bringing online multiple gigawatts of capacity in 2026. On Amazon's last earnings call, we learned that year-to-date CapEx was $89.9 billion and they expected full year 2025 CapEx to be $125 billion.
That implies a guide of $35.1 billion in CapEx for Q4. Last earning season, Amazon leadership told us they were adding capacity aggressively, monetizing capacity as fast as it comes online, and seeing demand absorb new capacity immediately. Let's see if we get similar commentary on this earnings call.
Overall, I'm expecting both Alphabet and Amazon's earnings calls to reinforce that AI demand is very strong and both companies will invest to meet that demand. We also have Ion earnings on February 5th. Ion was notably lower today along with the other Neo Cloud stocks following comments from famous short sellers and comments from a perpetually bearish analyst who has repeatedly increased his Ion price target even as he has repeatedly told people to sell the stock.
As I've said for months, ignore the noise, both the irrational hype and the unreasonable pessimism, and on in these videos 've seen in a while and that is the perspective from which I talk about the company. This is not hype. forecast in a meaningful way. But I'm not expecting any meaningful change in Iron's AI cloud revenue to show up on this specific earnings report.
That's something to look forward to in future quarters. As for this specific earnings report, I'll be looking for progress updates on Iron's data center buildout, the transition of their existing data centers from Bitcoin mining to AI cloud and I'll be on the lookout for any updates to AI cloud revenue forecasts or any changes to timelines.
As a reminder, we're expecting 23,000 GPUs to be operational by the end of Q1 2026. Then we're expecting the Horizon 1 through 4 data centers at Iron's Childers site to come online throughout the year as part of Iron's $9.7 billion deal with Microsoft. And then we're expecting another 40,000 GPUs to come online in two of Iron's British Columbia data centers by the end of 2026.
Putting all of that together, Iron is projecting that they will reach an AI cloud ARR of $3.4 billion by the end of 2026. That implies roughly $850 million in quarterly AI cloud revenue starting in Q1 of calendar 2027. That's more than 3.5x Iron's total quarterly revenue on their most recent earnings report.
Iron is an Nvidia preferred partner, which means they should have access to the newest Nvidia systems early cycle. Iron has nearly 3 gigawatts of secured renewable power. Iron is vertically integrated, which means that they build, own and operate the data centers themselves. They're not simply a middleman in between the owners of the data centers and the end customers like many neo clouds are.
This allows Iron to better control costs, capture greater margin across the entire vertically integrated stack and it substantially reduces the risk of Iron missing a deadline. Iron has a track record of delivering on what they promise and as long as the world is both compute constrained and constrained on power, Iron will most likely sell whatever capacity they can bring online.
Ignore the noise, both the irrational hype and the unreasonable pessimism and . As for timing, Q2 of calendar 2026 is likely the first quarter we will start to see a notable jump in Iron's AI cloud revenue. But for now, we need to be patient. There will also be pullbacks in the stock along the way, and we need to be prepared for those.
I'm bullish on Iron this year, and likely will be for most of 2027 as well. I'll update my thoughts on Iron as time goes on and we gradually gain greater visibility into the future. then we have Nvidia GTC March 16th through the 19th with a keynote from Jensen Huang scheduled for March 16th. I am very much looking forward to GTC this year.
As for Nvidia earnings, I'm expecting strong results given the swift production ramp of Blackwell Ultra. We also , which bodes well for guidance. And we know that Vera Rubin is in full production right now, which bodes well for what will happen in the short term. That said, s I said in yesterday's videos, Nvidia continues to deliver very strong earnings growth.
Nvidia's multiple has compressed substantially, and therefore i. It really is that simple. Nvidia is trading at a forward PE in the low 20s. That's basically a market multiple, and . I think the recent lackluster price action in Nvidia stock is a temporary dislocation that will eventually be resolved.
We've seen this happen multiple times in the past. The stock consolidates, Nvidia continues delivering strong earnings growth, market participants finally realize that the stock is simply too cheap given the growth that's ahead, and the stock ultimately moves higher. It really is that simple. . Of course, I expect .
I also don't think that most analysts are adequately factoring in growth from some of Nvidia's other business segments into their long-term estimates, especially physical AI. .
Comments 0