저자: TomLee · 외국인
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2021년은 2017년과 비슷할 것이며 비트코인은 2020년보다 더 높은 300% 이상 수익을 낼 것으로 전망 비트코인 전망: 약달러와 중앙은행 유동성 확대로 디지털 자산 수요 증가, 디지털 세대의 가치저장 수단으로 부상. 금도 여전히 합리적 투자처로 언급 비트코인은 위험자산처럼 움직이며 주식이 조정받으면 비트코인도 하락할 가능성이 높다고 설명. 보유자 기반은 아직 작음(약 100만 명 미만) 주식 전망: 2020년은 기관이 포트폴리오 손실 회피에 집중한 해였고, 주식은 약 10년간 펀드 자금 유출이 이어져 최least 선호 자산군이었음 경기민감주(에피센터 종목)는 2021년 매출 서프라이즈와 멀티플 상승이 함께 나타나 큰 해가 될 것이라고 주장. 파산이 예상됐음에도 신용시장이 버텨 '죽지 않는' 특성을 강조 리스크: 주식 조정 시 비트코인 동반 급락 가능성, 과거 2018년 4분기와 2020년 1분기에 비트코인이 절반 가까이 폭락한 전례 언급
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tom lee joins us he's the head of research for fun strat global advisors tom great to have you with us yeah thanks for having me uh your forecast do you wish you you put out a higher number at this point how much bitcoin's risen in such a short amount of time you know uh yeah that number it actually came from david greiter who's our digital asset strategist but uh i think in rounder numbers you know 2021 is going to be a lot like 2017 um which means bitcoin should do even better in 2021 than it did in 2020 so something above 300 percent a more than 300 percent return on bitcoin is what you're forecasting we're just having a conversation about the the interplay or the relationship potentially of a weaker dollar and a stronger bitcoin is that part of this thesis is that part of your thesis tom um it's gonna be part of it uh for two reasons you know first um you know bitcoin it's going to be denominated in something so if the dollar is weakening but bitcoin holds its value then bitcoin goes up but the more important effect is this year you know we did see a lot of central bank liquidity the dollar was really strong uh surprisingly for much of the year but its weakness now really is is going to make people think you know how do you sort of keeps a unit in sound money a lot of people thought gold would be that sort of store and it i think it still has a reasonable basis to be you know for someone to be long gold but i think for younger folks and those who are in the digital generation bitcoin is that digital asset that they want to hold as a store value all right let's pivot back to stocks tom in terms of your epicenter trade you've been on this for a while you think that's going to continue to be the theme in 2021 even though we've seen some pretty nice gains lately uh yes i mean i i think what people have to keep in mind about 2020 is two things one is uh it was really a year where institutional investors were just trying to pre to not do harm to their portfolio so you didn't really see a lot of risk on from the financial institutions and secondly um you know equities have seen negative mutual fund flows for nearly 10 years i mean so stocks have become the least favorite asset class for almost a decade and i think 2020 was just a year where stocks proved to be pretty resilient but i actually think that the epicenter stocks or the cyclicals have proven to be unkillable i mean we went through a depression we should have seen a bunch of bankruptcies but instead credit held these companies slash cost and so as you know people like operating leverage because it helps perpetual future value and so i think these cyclicals or the epicenters are going to get not only top line surprise next year but their multiples are going to really surprise us and that means they could have a huge year hey tom it's dan nathan how are you bud great to have you here uh quick question here on the bitcoin okay the last two times the stock market has corrected meaningfully in q4 2018 and then obviously in q1 of this year bitcoin got creamed it got cut in half on both instances and and so just help us and my i guess to the viewers understand a little bit you know one of the the kind of bulk cases is that store of value also that uncorrelated nature to traditional risk assets why do you think we had those sorts of corrections at that point those crashes and what bars it from happening this time around after such a large um rally in bitcoin over the last six months or so um yeah dan uh it's a good point and you know we have to keep in mind bitcoins holder base is still tiny i don't think there's even really more than a million real people that own bitcoin compared to nearly a billion people that own other financial instruments um so it's tiny the penetration's 1 1000 so where it should be and we've written about this but bitcoin is acts like a risk on assets so in the years where the s ps performed the best are all also the best years for equities i mean you could even interpret it you know two ways so i think if we have a correction in stocks then bitcoin is going to fall and it's because uh a lot of the incremental buyers if they're in the us may be using leverage or risk on a risk appetite as a reason to add to bitcoin so it should you know it should actually be falling if stocks fall
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