저자: JamieDimon관련인터뷰패널 · 외국인
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비트코인 가격 급락과 중국의 거래소 폐쇄 발표로 암호화폐 시장이 흔들린 상황을 다룬 2017년 9월 방송이다. 결론: 비트코인과 ICO는 투기적 거품 성격이 강하며 장기 생존 여부는 불확실하다는 것이 패널들의 대체적 시각이다. 비트코인 평가: JP모건 CEO 제이미 다이먼이 비트코인을 사기라고 비판했고, 중국 당국의 거래소 폐쇄 발표가 가격 급락을 촉발했다고 설명한다. 비트코인은 올해 600% 상승 후 최근 30% 하락했다. 거품 논쟁: 튤립 버블과 비교되며, 시장 심리(희망)에 기반한 거품이 언젠가 꺼질 것이라는 견해가 제시된다. ICO 평가: 투자 자금이 비전문 투자자로부터 대규모로 모이고 있으나, 일부는 사기이고 일부만 정직하게 추진된다는 시각이다. 기술 논쟁: 블록체인 기술 자체에는 응용 가능성이 있다는 견해와, 실제 실사용 사례는 아직 없다는 회의론이 맞선다. 규제 전망: 향후 ICO가 IPO처럼 규제될 가능성이 제기되며, 비트코인은 생태계의 일부로 남을 수 있다는 전망이다. 출연자 견해: 패널 중 한 명은 기술 투자자로서 블록체인 가능성을 옹호했고, 다른 패널은 회의적이었으며 투자자들을 '순진하다'고 평가했다. 비트코인 시가총액(약 600억 달러)은 중견 상장사 수준이라는 지적도 있다.
다듬은 글
we were about to witness the collapse of Bitcoin the currency they told us could offer a safer more secure option for trading there was the libertarians dream to Kindle something that operated beyond government's beyond institutions but this week one of the biggest banks in the world labeled Bitcoin a fraud which would eventually blow up harsh words but it's the actions of China that may now seal its fate today Chinese authorities announced they will close all Bitcoin exchanges by the end of this month the currency took a massive tumble as speculators thought there could be witnessing the beginning of the end so while Bitcoin recover from this can crypto currencies still proved to the world they'll revolutionize and democratize trading or are they along with tulipmania and the dot-coms of the 1990s an unsustainable economic bubble here's David Grossman Bitcoin has many fans but the head of JPMorgan Jamie Dimon isn't one it's worse than tulip bulbs he said it won't end well someone is going to get killed he's referring of course to the 17th century tulip mania that caused some bubbles to cost more than houses before of course the bubble burst it is perhaps unsurprising that someone who runs a conventional bank doesn't much like something that's been set up specifically to get round the conventional banking system indeed one of the reasons for the phenomenal rise of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is that more and more people have less and less trust in the financial system stock markets are falling here and around the world the financial crisis of a decade ago convinced many that the whole system was in fact rigged the negative real interest rates that followed were actually a dishonest way for governments to boost treasury coffers and reduced debt by in effect taxing savers while people are looking into preserving value they're also on a hunt for some sort of return you're not getting it from putting your money in a bank and so that's why we've seen you know rapid increases over the last ten years in you know stocks and other assets so the fact that I think bitcoin is just caught the public's imagination like nothing else so the the increase in that has been huge the numbers are massive and are terrifying in some ways but it has been a function this isn't just happening in the cryptocurrency world this has happened in lots of asset classes the essence of a crypto currency like Bitcoin is that central bank's have no control over it its suppliers cap so no one can just print money and a record of who owns what is spread across the entire community of users part of that community is Mirim Carranza she's a law student in London her brother in Kenya finds Bitcoin an easy way to send her money without having to use a bank she can with a bit of fuss turn it into pounds at this ATM machine does it worry you that the currency seems to go up and down so quickly it's a bit worrying like I have to keep checking the price and I have a lots and I have like buy orders at sudden-like prices and that type of thing and like in the past week the price has really gone down it's a bit why did you lose sleep over it well the thing is I treated a very minuscule level so like the loss I have is an EXO huge word get like depressed about it but I know there are people who who lose a lot of sleep and yeah and get very stressed out Bitcoin and the technology behind it has spawned dozens of similar crypto currencies and now a new trend the ICO or initial coin offering it's an increasingly popular way to raise capital for a new venture instead of issuing shares you issue a new currency is this simply a way for fraudsters to get the money of gullible people no this isn't this isn't necessarily a way for that to happen although we are seeing huge amounts of investment money raised from what you would probably call unsophisticated investors and on the back of what may be a fairly undeveloped product so in some cases it's probably easy money to raise from an investment point of view but I wouldn't necessarily say that each of them is is a scam but amongst them there may be some fortunate products I would say so yes I would imagine serving us China was this month the first authority to ban I SEOs other regulators are looking nervously at them issuing ever stronger warnings for investors to beware this is the third stage of a bubble the mania phase where people are investing on the basis that other investors will buy from them and not because it's some sort of solar opportunity there are a few icos where people have tried to do things properly in an orderly manner but quite a lot of them they just say we're gonna Ralph some magic beans buy something you can sell them to someone else and that's the entire offer the value of Bitcoin has risen exponentially up 600 percent this year alone but back down 30 percent in recent weeks a similar shape then to the price of q-tip bulbs 380 years ago but that graph of course went back to almost zero David Grossman there will Malcolm pallies the chairman and co-founder of coin cilium which invests in blockchain start-ups was the world's first blockchain technology company to float on the stock market and down a chrome from the financial times he's a little bit more skeptical about the promise of crypto currencies so is Bitcoin a profound financial innovation or an easy route to let's call it funny money mark I'm gonna start with you how much damage do you think that Jamie diamonds words did when he called it a fraud or is it the actions of China that have really spooked people today I think it's a combination of both probably this market is with these crypto currencies is susceptible to emotion more so than any other market because it trades 24/7 and effectively anything you'd say that can spook the market does anything have so good is it good if it's even more susceptible to emotion than all the other markets that are already is it good I don't know and that the my disclaimer is that I invest in the technology this is all a big distraction for me and for our company because everyone's focusing on the price of Bitcoin and the price of the crypto currencies they're going up going down to the game broke when in reality what we're seeing is the most phenomenal revolution in technology which has been brought about and it's underlying these these and you don't fear for that now I don't feel the technology at all none I think that anyone who gets involved in Spokeo use the technology if the Kurtz is completely well it's the other way around the technology is what drives the currency it happens to work like money do you agree with that donor we concentrated on the wrong thing here I mean if we see the end of Bitcoin is that just the beginning of something else no I I think I'm a bit of a skeptic on the technology as well but you talked about emotion and the emotion that really is driving Bitcoin and all of this technology investment in these silly tokens these icos is hope this idea that somehow this technology is going to deliver all these wonderful promised good things and I think what people are starting to see now with China shutting down some of the exchanges and I think what we will eventually see as with all bubbles is that you know don't those hope is going to turn to dust these bubbles this bubble will pop you've heard that phrase when they were described as unsophisticated investors what does that say to you does it mean people who don't have to go through the big institutions who don't have to be robbed blind by you know rates that banks are charging or doesn't mean gullible people I think it means gullible people in see with that with what with the people that are buying into these things are more gullible investors if you would have put oh I can't completely recall the figures right now but if you would have put a few pence into Bitcoin at the very beginning you would have made multiple of your money and no one was even bothering about it then right now if people are chasing it now then yes of course I think they're gullible I'd say that yet with the proviso that providing they don't know what they're doing they're gullible if they know what they're doing then fine is this the dot-com bubble of you know the early 90s is this just about to go I mean this could be the time that it goes completely bust there's Jamie Dimon sort of head of JP Morgan said this week you can't really predict whether it could jump up and double again that's what that's the nature of bubbles but you can be fairly sort certain but at some point it will go pop and this looks like a diamond is what happens if it pops there I mean did it probably the same as what happened to the Internet a lot of the speculation goes out of it and the survivors like the Amazons the eBay is and all the genuine opportunities are actually allowed to develop you know what Airway that's outside of that special ocean I mean tell us what scale were talk about do a lot of regular people I think risk of overstating the importance of this right I mean the hype of Bitcoin is totally dis reported just proportionate to its size if you add up all the bitcoins and if you could sell them for dollars which I don't think you could it would be worth about sixty billion dollars now that's quite a lot of money to come from nothing from a bit of computer code but really it's one moderate-sized listed company it disappeared I don't think the world would really notice okay so let's just assume though than what we're talking about now is not where the Bitcoin comes or goes but whether this technology this this innovation about a currency that can circumnavigate institutions and governments still has a future do you think it does it's more than just a currency it happens to act like a money so therefore it's treated like money but the blockchain technology that underlies that is has some tremendous applications like well I mean one example a professional social network which is on a distributed basis people are tokenizing assets there's there's a motive we could have a Yemenite Bitcoin a Newsnight coin if you want to do it yes I mean getting into the coins and the token side is I think it's too early to have that debate you hear this a lot I don't think there is any real working example of something in the real world being used on a regular basis attached to this blockchain technology you can do is you can create currency out of nothing because that's ephemeral it's just the software but but the bit which all the banks are throwing money at which you're seeing lots of businesses like yours it's sort of on this promise that one day they can sort out all of the problems all right there are some big inherent contradictions in this so down a quick a quick thought then do you think Malcolm will be the one laughing you know that he will be the one that puts his money where his mouth is and actually he will you know people that support this technology in 10 years time will be the ones on top of the market no I think the thing to realize about the currency is there's this big contradiction it's somehow going to make you loads of money because the price is going to go up and up and up but at the same time everyone is going to use it as something to buy and so on let's actually catch on no we're looking at the everyone's worried about what's going on with this highly emotive state but regulation isn't the next thing that's going to come these markets or certainly the technology and the applications and those are doing token offers are going to be regulated they're going to be IC o---- is going to be treated like IPO then it's the end of what bitcoins meant to be isn't it although Bitcoin will be a part of that ecosystem but it doesn't necessarily mean it's the end of it thank you both very much indeed I think it's coming in well
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