저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
피터 쉬프는 미국 인플레이션이 2% 수준으로 쉽게 내려가지 않으며 고인플레이션 시대가 지속된다고 주장한다. 물가 하락 없이는 연평균 2% 목표 달성이 불가능하다는 것이 핵심 논리다. 인플레이션 수치: 2022년 연간 인플레이션 7.7%, 2022년 11월 전년比 7.1%, 2022년 말 7% 이상 마감 예상. 2년간 누적 약 15%의 생활비 상승이며 CPI가 실제 소비자 물가 상승의 절반만 포착하므로 실제로는 두 배 가능성. 노동시장 및 경제: 물가 상승으로 여러 직업을 갖는 '투잡·쓰리잡' 현상이 늘어 노동시장은 강하지 않고 약하다고 평가. 18~29세 미국 청년의 50% 가까이가 부모와 거주하며 1940년 이후 최고 수준. 대공황 이후 가장 큰 경기침체 가능성을 언급. Fed 전망: 연준은 2023년 평균 인플레이션을 3.2%, 2024년 2.2%로 예상하며, 2025년이 되어야 2% 복귀를 기대. 쉬프는 이보다도 높을 것이라고 봄. 연준의 '평균 2% 인플레이션' 약속은 현실성이 없다고 비판. 시장 및 자산 전망: 주식은 현재 약세장(베어마켓) 속 일시적 반등이며 산타랠리도 단기에 그칠 것. 금은 새로운 강세장(불장)에 진입했으며 금 관련 주식도 강세장. 달러는 차트상 고점 징후를 보이며 달러 지수가 105 아래 2주 연속 마감, 현재 103.5로 하락. 달러 약세와 금 상승 흐름이 2023년까지 지속될 것으로 전망. 금리는 명목금리는 높지만 실질금리는 여전히 마이너스이며 향후 인플레이션이 더 상승할 것으로 봄. 리스크: 고인플레이션이 정책 불확실성과 금융시장 리스크를 높이며, 투자자들의 저인플레이션 가정이 깨지면서 리스크 프리미엄 재평가가 필요하다는 주장. 재정적자와 통화 증발이 인플레이션을 고착화할 것으로 우려.
다듬은 글
what consumers need to get relief is a decline in prices now of course the FED would say that's terrible we can't have deflation well if we have a huge increase in prices what's so bad about having a decrease in prices to bring them back down remember the FED talked about inflation averaging they wanted inflation to average 2% well last year inflation was 7.7% the year-over-year rate of inflation in November is 7.1 it's probably going to end the year north of 7 which means we've got 2 years of inflation which when added together represents a 15% increase in the cost of living that is a huge increase and especially when you consider the fact that it's probably double that because the CPI is only capturing about half of the increases in consumer prices that that consumers are actually paying that is a massive increase in the cost of living that is why so many people are Moonlighting and again that's why we have so many jobs being created because people can't pay the bills with one job they now need second and third jobs to pay these higher prices so this is not a strong labor market this is a weak labor market and a weak economy where people are forced to work multiple jobs when they used to be able to get by with just one in fact I just read that the percentage of Young Americans and those are 18 to 29y year olds that are still living at home with their parents is now at the highest level since 1940 now that was the end of the Great Depression and so a lot of people had a hard time moving out during that period of time we haven't been in a depression yet at least not officially I think by the time it's said and done everyone's going to acknowledge that this is actually a greater depression but we have nearly 50% of 18 to 29 year olds living at home with their parents why in 2022 are so many young adults still living with their parents a because they don't have jobs at all and if you don't have a job well you can't afford to pay rent or B you have a job but the job doesn't pay you enough to pay rent so you don't have any choice other than to stay home and live rentree with your parents now maybe some of these young adults are chipping in and helping their parents pay the rent or pay the mortgage whatever they're doing but in fact one of the reasons that Young Americans have money to spend on clothing or travel is because they're not spending on rent because they're living at home but of course most Young Americans would prefer not to live with their parents the fact that they end up having to live with their parents is a sacrifice that they have to make because the labor market is not strong enough to provide Young Americans with a high enough real wage so that they can afford to leave the nest so a lot of parents who were looking forward to being empty nesters now have a nest full of their grown kids who can't afford to fly the coupe but the point is that prices are still rising and If the Fed was really true to its commitment of averaging inflation of 2% well how many years do we have to have inflation way below 2% and there's not a lot of room to get below 2% if you want to be above zero but how many years of sub 2% inflation are we going to need to get the average rate of inflation down to 2% in fact the FED is not even projecting that inflation is going to go down to 2% in 2023 its current projection for 2023 average inflation is 32% now of course I think that's optimistic I think we're going to miss the mark by a mile but that's what the FED is projecting for 2023 and even in 2024 they're not looking for 2% the projection there is 22% so maybe 2025 is the first year that the FED believes it will finally succeed in getting inflation back down to 2% but if the FED is going to stick to its commitment that inflation average 2% we'd have to have some years where prices declined otherwise there's no way we're ever going to get the average down to 2% of course that's not going to happen inflation averaging will never be brought up again it was only brought up initially as a ruse because the FED needed some excuse why it was allowing inflation to be above 2% so it came up with this idea that we needed inflation above 2% to make up for all the years that it was below 2% so that we could bring the average up to 2% well that was a bunch of nonsense then I called out the FED for how ridiculous that policy was but again now that we're so far above 2% they're never going to talk about the need to average 2% because that would require much lower inflation than the FED is possibly capable of delivering given the current state of the fiscal budget how much money has already been printed and how much money they're going to print to monetize these enormous deficits so we're never going to get back down to 2% and that is the real important point that seems to be lost on everybody what investors are trying to figure out is has inflation Peak have we seen Peak inflation now I think the answer to that question is no I don't think inflation has peaked now it may have peaked for a short period of time it may take until the second half of 2023 before we get a year-over-year rate of inflation that was higher than the high water mark for 2022 but who knows maybe it'll take into 2024 but the one thing that I'm certain of is that we're not going anywhere near 2% and that is what investors still don't understand that the days of low inflation are over and we're living in an era of high inflation and that is a complete G game changer for the fed and the FED has yet to come to terms with this new reality nor has the market because investors who don't understand that the game has changed well they're going to be playing by the old rules and they will lose if they don't adopt their strategy to the new reality of high inflation and higher interest rates now we still have negative real interest rates but the nominal rate is higher and in inflation is much higher and more importantly it's going to get a lot higher and it's introducing another element of risk into the markets because prior to that investors were confident that inflation would stay around 2% once they have to acknowledge that it could be much higher than 2% but how high is anybody's guess that introduces a lot of risk that needs to be priced into financial markets that had been priced out when so many investors were LED in to a false sense of complacency and they actually believed that the FED could deliver on its commitment that it could fine-tune the inflation rate to such a precise degree that it could keep it right around 2% indefinitely but the most significant Market reaction to the better than expected inflation data was not the stock market after all the Dow couldn't even hold on to its big rally the big news was in the foreign exchange market and the gold market because even though the dollar didn't close on the lows it still closed the day with big losses the same thing with gold even though gold backed off its $40 High it still closed the day about $30 higher and more importantly back above the $1,800 an ounce level and as I've been saying to the extent that we do get a Santa Claus rally before the end of the year in the stock market it will be short live because this is not a bull market in stocks we're still in a bare Market but this is a correction within that bare Market in contrast we are in a new bull market in Gold we're in a bull market in Gold stocks and I believe that we are in a bare Market in the dollar now we're not technically in a bare market yet because the dollar hasn't fallen enough but it is looking so toppy to me on a chart that I'm I'm going out on the limb now given that we are below the 105 level and we have closed below that level for two weeks in a row now in the dollar Index and in fact after today's action the dollar Index is now at 103 and a half this supports my forecast that the moves in the dollar and in Gold that we've seen over the last couple of months are sustainable and will continue into 2023 three whereas I still expect any gains that the US
Comments 0