저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 연준의 추가 개입(QE)은 경제에 도움이 안 되며 오히려 상황을 악화시킨다는 것이 Peter Schiff의 입장이고, Ron Insana는 개입이 필요하다고 반박하는 토론이다. Schiff는 경기 회복이 안 되는 이유는 연준이 진짜 경기침체를 허용하지 않았기 때문이라고 주장하며, QE1·QE2가 주택 버블과 주식 버블을 만들었다고 비판한다. Schiff는 연준이 추가 개입을 해도 고통을 지연시킬 뿐이고 결국 더 큰 고통이 온다고 보며, 2005·2006년부터 주택 버블 붕괴를 경고해왔다고 말한다. Insana는 1930년대와 일본 1990년대 사례를 들어 정책 개입이 경제에 도움이 된다고 주장하며, 연준은 아직 탄약이 남아 있고 디플레이션 압력에 대응할 수 있다고 본다. Schiff는 주식 상승은 인플레이션(화폐 가치 훼손)에 따른 것이며, 금으로 환산하면 주식은 하락하고 있다고 주장한다. 금에 대해서는 Schiff가 금을 계속 매수하겠다고 밝혔고, 결국 통화위기와 국가부채 위기가 올 것이라고 전망한다. 정치적으로는 정치인들이 시장을 방치해 경기가 가라앉는 것을 두고 보기 어렵다는 점을 Insana가 지적한다. Schiff는 2012년 정부와 연준이 주택 버블을 부풀렸다고 주장하며, 시장에 맡겼다면 더 큰 고통이 있었겠지만 그것이 정답이었다고 본다. 리스크: 연준 개입이 단기 완충이 될 수 있으나 Schiff는 장기적으로 위험하다고 보고, Insana는 디플레이션 디레버리징 억제를 중시한다. 출연자 전망: Schiff는 강한 비관론(금 매수, 통화·국가부채 위기), Insana는 연준 추가 개입의 효과를 낙관. 자산별 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
yeah so joy stealing once in a while he likes to take a jab at me and it his most recent blog he said well how's that hyperinflation thing going like ships not always right because you said we'd have hyperinflation I did say we'd have my for ablation and we're going to have - thanks so much Brian well if the world's investors are right get ready for another intervention by the Federal Reserve to boost the economy that of course we will hear about tomorrow at 2:00 p.m.
ahead of the press conference the Bernanke will get meantime we're going to talk about whether it's needed or not euro pacific capital peter schiff says any fit actions not going to help and it's wrong Ron and sana bow says the economy needs it right now so let's talk about it then get your perspectives on this right now Peter you saw the employment numbers last Friday you don't think we need more Fed intervention well and we need more Fed intervention the way an alcoholic needs another drink I mean the reason the economy can't recover is because the Fed wouldn't allow it to have a real recession we are suffering the consequences of qe1 qe2 in fact the consequences of the QE that precipitated the housing bubble in the stock market bubble we can't let the Federal Reserve use monetary policy and artificially low interest rates to blow these bubbles and then when the bubbles blow up not let the market repair the damage but try to juice the economy with more QE if I'm never going to recover if we keep moving this run what do you think you think the stimulus will make a difference here well I think it will help at the margin and I think that the notion of not letting the Fed help and letting the market clear with what would have been a devastating recession or depression in 2008 and 2009 is historically wrongheaded we found out what happened when policy mistakes were made in 1930s we found out what's happened in Japan in the 1990s and and this there is really no historical basis on which to make these predictions that the intervention and and assistance from a policy perspective doesn't help the economy therefore on 7 million people on food stamps who would argue quite differently Ron yes there is in fact we're repeating the mistakes of Japan we're repeating the mistakes of the 1930s we are intervening we're actually doing it in a worse way and the Fed can't help all they can do is make it worse now can they delay but that's patently false there's no you're not backing it up with anything no I'm backing it up with facts all they haven't heard one yet all the Fed can do Ron is delay the pain but in doing it it makes it worse and how do you think I knew that crisis was coming how do you think I was on CNBC in 2005 and 2000 warning about it I understood what the Fed was doing and when everybody else was calling for recovery in 2009 and 2010 I said it wasn't real I said we will come back in recession and we will be I'm now Peter say you think let me get respond by saying if it's not real it's the best fake hundred percent rocket I've seen and economy's growing two percent where it would have been down nine at Empire now I got a February economy as marks got it to talk about two different things yeah I might have to start a market yeah the stock market is not the economy in fact q is good for the stock market because it's inflation when you create inflation and destroy the value of money and you white without high abilities that's what's happening that's why stocks are going up but if you measure stocks in gold they're not going up they're going down if you look at them in real money well first of all gold isn't necessarily real money there are all kinds of money no there is not yeah there are and if you look at history we'll see everything from seashells to lodestones to salt to paper to metals real money there all has money money you know we never got money Haiti was a muddy economic argument we have this current River not what should be done but when you think about it from a political standpoint which politician is going to be the one to sit on his hands or her hands and let the economy sink and you know without providing some help I mean that you you know they would not be returned to office at all if they allow the free markets to do their thing back in 2012 a had Atlantic that if they'd allow the free market to work we wouldn't be in this message of further but I understand everyone's doing a lot more pain Peter no on you know the outcome would have been a lot more pain no economy and one would be blaming those politician out we did nothing at that time but the government inflated the housing bubble without the Fed and the government there would have been no housing bubble depend upon it I cross the power say hey that's only in a problem it's mainly acacia lordy I live for Jordan okay Ron you heard Peters points here yeah it's not that you haven't heard this argument before a lot of them fall through many times you have a lot of people feel that at this point the Fed action is not really going to do anything and they're almost out of bullets so is there too much fat action at this point no first of all the Fed is not almost out of bullets that is a fiction that people keep coming up with that if you studied the Fed and what they can do during periods where there is deflationary pressure and excess capacity around the world including here at home the Fed can do more will do more tomorrow and it mitigates the impact of a deflationary deleveraging that's going on in the economy that has been proven over the last several years it's been proven over the last several so you're going to do more harm you know you can collect seashells I'm going to keep buying gold the one money we're going oh yeah we're not we're not going to get any jobs and eventually Ron we're going to have a currency crisis and a sovereign debt crisis it's yes we will know we're going to make Peter answers you've got to get American air lips on this Korea if I may Peter started emailing me in the mid-1990s talking about hyperinflation we went through the 1990s without hyperinflation the biggest threat was deflation some of us like myself we're also talking about problems in housing in 2005 2000s they learned thousands of it I pulled the tapes Peter they're all there read my books it's all in there 2003 2009 I don't remember you out there see what I was what I was doing about all about I don't need you to remember their sites leave it how much I like to see who picks up the check lunch well here we'll buy it in gold thank you hold on enjoy thank you guys that was as fun as we thought it would be yeah and don't forget to tune in tomorrow for the Fed special housing bubble defend open annex I caused the power she had that's only a problem it's an alien official organized live forward yes you can oppose Ron you're heard Peters points here and it's not that you haven't heard this argument before Michael all through my dungeon a lot of people feel that at this point the Fed action is not really going to do anything and they're almost out of bullets so is there too much fat action at this point no first of all the Fed is not almost out of bullets that is a fiction that people keep coming up with that if you studied the Fed and what they can do during periods where there is deflationary pressure in excess capacity around the world including here at home the Fed can do more will do more tomorrow and it mitigates the impact of a deflationary deleveraging that's going on in the economy that has been proven over the last several years it's been proven over the last several so you're going to do more harm you know you can collect seashells I'm going to keep buying gold the one we're not we're not going to get any jobs and eventually Ron we're going to have a currency crisis and a sovereign debt thanks so much Ryan well if the world's investors are right get ready for another intervention by the Federal Reserve to boost the economy that of course we will hear about tomorrow at 2:00 p.m.
ahead of the press conference that Bernanke will get meantime we're going to talk about whether it's needed or not euro pacific capital peter schiff says any fit actions not going to help and it's wrong Ron and son of o says the economy needs it right now so let's talk about it then get your perspectives on this right now Peter you saw the employment numbers last Friday you don't think we need more Fed intervention well we need more Fed intervention the way an alcoholic needs another drink I mean the reason the economy can't recover is because the Fed wouldn't allow it to have a real recession we are suffering the consequences of qe1 qe2 in fact the consequence of the QE that precipitated the housing bubble in the stock market bubble we can't let the Federal Reserve use monetary policy and artificially low interest rates to blow these bubbles and then when the bubbles blow off not let the market repair the dam all they haven't heard one yet all the Fed can do Ron is delay the pain but doing it it makes it worse and how do you think I knew that crisis was coming how do you think I was on CNBC in 2005 and 2006 warning about it I understood what the Fed was doing and when everybody else was calling for a recovery in 2009 and 2010 I said it wasn't real I said we were back in recession and we will be I'm now Peter anything will you let me get to respond by saying if it's not real it's the best fake 100% stock that I've seen and economy's growing 2% where we've been down nine I know I got a separate khana me and March got it so many different things yeah I might don't have the stock market yeah the stock market is not the economy in fact q is good for the stock market because it's inflation when you create inflation and destroy the value of money and you white without not high abilities that's what's happening that's why stocks are going up but if you measure stocks in gold they're not going up they're going down if you look at them in real money well first of all gold isn't necessarily real money there are all kind of money no that is not yeah there are and if you look at history will see everything from seashells to lodestones to salt to paper to metals be real money there all has money money you know we in hammer is not money Peyton is a money economic argument we have this current real or not what should be done but when you think about it from a political standpoint which politician is going to be the one to sit on his hands or her hands and let the economy sink you know without providing some help I mean that you know they would not be returned to office at all if they allow the free markets to do their thing back in 2012 a hadal addict that if they'd allow the free market to work we wouldn't be in this mess of the first Leben I understand and we was doing or a lot more pain Peter no you know the outcome would have been a lot of more pain no economy and one would be blaming those politician out we did nothing at that time but the government inflated the housing bubble without the Fed and the government there would have been damage but try to juice the economy with more QE if I'm never going to recover if we keep hearing this run buddy thank you think the stimulus will make a difference here well I think it will help at the margin and I think that the notion of not letting the Fed help and letting the market clear with what would have been a devastating recession or depression in 2008 and 2009 is historically wrongheaded we found out what happened when policy mistakes were made in 1930s we found out what's happened in Japan in the 1990s and and this there is really no historical basis on which to make these predictions that that intervention and and assistance from a policy perspective doesn't help the economy therefore on 7 million people on food stamps who would argue quite differently Ron yes there is in fact we're repeating the mistakes of Japan we're repeating the mistakes of the 1930s we are intervening we're actually doing it in a worse way and the Fed can't help all they can do is make it worse now can they delay the pain but that's patently false there's no you're not backing it up with anything no I'm backing it up with facts
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