저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 인플레이션 붕괴를 주장하는 Schiff는 달러 약세와 원자재 급등을 근거로 금리 상승 위험을 경고하지만, 시점과 구체적 목표 수치는 제시하지 않았다. 주제: 인플레이션과 달러 Schiff는 달러 약세·원유·금·은 상승을 인플레이션 붕괴의 신호로 보고 장기적으로 인플레이션이 올 것이라고 주장한다. Fed의 양적완화(QE2 6000억 달러)가 화폐를 찍어내는 것과 같다고 비판하지만, 은행 지준이 실제 대출로 돌아가지 않아 지금은 실질적 근거가 약하다고 인정한다. 주제: 부채와 디레버리징 미국 정부부채는 GDP 대비 약 3%에서 10%로 증가했고, 민간부채는 13%에서 약 -5%로 줄어 상쇄 효과가 있다고 본다. 국가부채가 14조 달러에 이르러 상환 능력이 채권 보유자에 달려 있다고 지적하며, 부채 디폴트 가능성도 언급한다. 주제: 금리 전망 미국 10년물 금리가 3% 수준에 근접했다고 보며, 금리가 계속 오르면 이자 부담과 경기침체·은행 부실 위험이 커진다고 경고한다. 금리 하락을 오래 예측해 왔다는 상대 주장에 대해 확신 없이 가능성을 열어둔다. 주제: 소비와 신용 신용카드 회전신용 감소와 소비자 저축 부족을 대비시키며, 가계가 저축 없이 소비하고 있다고 본다. 소비 붕괴 여부는 단정하지 않는다. 출연자 전망: Schiff는 인플레이션형 붕괴와 금리 상승 위험을, Shilling은 디플레이션 우려를 제기하는 구도다.
다듬은 글
but many girls festive dissident I'm joined now by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital and Gary shilling of a garish lien company author of the age of deleveraging and several books about deflation Peter nobody read any of Gary's books he's very concerned about deflation I know you're very where inflation what is he missing he's missed it a lot he's uh I think you know he's not focusing on the dollar on our current account and our trade deficit on our lack of savings in production and you know what ultimately happens when you have an economic collapse in the nation like us and you look throughout history and look at other countries that have gotten in these predicaments only not as large as a lot of the scale is up you've always had an inflationary collapse and I think that's what's coming that's what commodity prices are telling us that's what today's 30-year high and silver is telling us a new all-time high in gold stocks today - you're high in oil money is losing values not only the dollar but other currencies but I think particularly the dollar and you know you've got a madman at the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke we're running these massive deficits everyone you know we're monetizing them we're calling it quantitative easing but let you know we're - at all that it is I mean that's that's inflation I mean that's an average rights okay how do you account for these big increases in commodity prices that appear just mentioned well it's interesting everybody everybody blames it on the Fed but the Fed does not create money the Fed creates reserves it's up to the banks and the lenders and the borrowers rather to turn reserves into money and I'm not sure why the dollars then we can come Iseman right but I think a lot of it is anticipatory its assumption that all those reserves you now got over a trillion dollars they're going to find their way if they come how are going to be lent and and borrowed and turn into money but that isn't happening so far and that was - we won and now the Fed has got qe2 with another six hundred billion dollars net and I think it's probably going to be more the same but at some point I think reality will set in but right now I don't think there's any substantial reason for the weakness of the dollar the run-up in commodity prices there there are a lot of reasons but the big reality is going to be you know we have all this debt right we can't possibly pay it back so all we can do is print I mean unless you think the US government is going to default which is certainly an option that we're going to default on our Treasury debt holiday but look at that government debt if you look at government debt relative to GDP since the first quarter of 2006 it is gone from 3 percent of GDP to 10 percent big job ok but then you look at what's happened in the private sector there's their borrowing relation to GDP as gone in that same time from 13% to - what is that is going down hey what is that Apple Oh am i hearing out it's going down 18 percentage point well dicks welded while the government borrowing is going up 7 less than handle in other words what my leveraging is going on any way that the private sector deleveraging is offsetting what the government is doing on inflation the other so more than offsetting more than on so what does that have to do with the government's ability to repay its debts or to service its debts I mean right now we have a 14 trillion dollar gum master the government ability to repay its debt depends on the holders and and the reality is that we are the safe hey or not look look it just look at a girl for goodness sake so you're virtually collapse the spring is now under fire it was Greece earlier now at Ireland is it's the rest of the pigs Portugal Spain but we're because I think it online China is trying to calm down that economy and that's a stop go economy and they're probably going to have a hard line what do you think is going to happen when interest rates rise and all of a sudden why are we here why would industry they work they're rising right now I look at this look at the yields we hit we hit at four or five months five days well I mean we're close it 3% though in the tensioner right but what happens what if it's 5% next year and then the year after that what if it goes even higher if the dog jumped over the phone I mean well I'm talking about some things that are probable I'm not talking about well that's your opinion well yeah but what happened - ying is it were going to 2% on the Tony you 10 million percent well 230 a familiar has I've been I've been forecasting declines and interest rates as Ahrens know ever since the 30 or was 15 and a quarter percent in 1981 now maybe I'm on this one I don't know all the way down all the way down you only accept him was at the end of all magic wonderful way when you had your rational exuberant Treasury but every time guys like you have said I can't go lower you can't go lower you can't go lower and that's what's happening I mean if you end up holding those Treasuries long enough you're going to go down with that ship because my point was when interest rates rise and you have to admit they could rise right I mean Murphy's Law anything that can go wrong will let's say race rides and all of a sudden the federal government need a trillion dollars a year a trillion a half dollars here just to pay the interest on the national debt let alone any of the retiring principle how are they going to get that money in a recession because of rates rise we'll be back in a recession the banks will be failing housing prices will be plunging how do we put anything can happen all I can say is that I think we are in the age of the leveraging that's a title my book and blogs it's selling well in its number one in Amazon so sellers a book that'll never get beyond that merit on your own I'm gonna go ahead and arming like never before people are still using credit cards are still borrowing money no no Meghan I'm not buying your credit cards look at the date of their public credit card borrowing which is called revolving credit is dropping like a rock consumers are pictures are chill everything right if you sue us consumer you look back with it how they buying all these Christmas shopping what about we had a record Black Friday and Cyber Monday where's all that money coming from because they don't have any savings you
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