저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 미국 증시는 연준의 무모한 통화정책으로 거대한 버블 상태이며, 역사적 일본 버블 사례처럼 결국 큰 대가를 치르게 된다는 비관론. 시장 상황: 월마트는 아마존 프라임 유사 서비스 발표 후 하루 6% 가까이 올라 사상 최고가를 기록했고, 아마존도 1.7% 상승해 신고가를 경신했다. 줄롬 Zoom은 실적 서비스 호조로 하루 40% 급등했으며 주가 457달러, 52주 저점은 61달러 수준이다. Zoom에 대한 평가: 재택 수요 증가가 일시적인지 영구적인지가 핵심이며, 현재 주가는 봉쇄가 장기간 지속되고 코로나 우려가 계속된다는 가정을 전제로 한다고 지적. 시장은 백신과 치료제 개발로 경제가 회복될 것을 기대하는데, 이는 Zoom 수요 지속과 모순된다고 봄. 연준 정책: 현재 버블은 연준의 무책임한 통화정책에서 비롯되며, 과거보다 연준의 정책이 더 공격적이라고 평가. 일본 사례: 1980년대 일본은 달러 지지와 대미 수출 유지를 위해 과도한 통화 발행을 했고, 그 유동성이 주식·부동산 버블을 낳았다. 현재 일본 주식·부동산은 80년대 고점보다 낮으며, 일본 정부와 일본은행이 버블 교정을 허용하지 않아 30년 넘게 경제 회복이 약화됐다고 주장. 아베노믹스 역시 인플레이션 부족을 문제로 보고 더 많은 통화 발행을 추구한 잘못된 처방이라고 비판. 부동산 비교: 도쿄 황궁 부지(0.5평방마일 미만)의 가치가 캘리포니아 주 전체보다 높았다는 버블 사례를 제시. 투자 심리: 시장 참여자들은 지나치게 낙관적이며, 하락일이 드물고 밸류에이션이나 연준 유동성 의존을 무시. 정책의 부작용이 없다고 믿고 있으나 Schiff는 결과가 반드시 따른다고 경고. 리스크: 연준의 대규모 유동성 공급이 자산 버블을 만들고 있으며, 그 조정 시 큰 손실이 불가피하다는 주장. 특정 종목 매수·매도 권고는 없음.
다듬은 글
but look this is the biggest bubble that we've ever seen we have the most reckless federal reserve that there's ever been and so you get stuff like that look at what happened today with walmart i mean walmart came out and they announced that they're going to do their own amazon prime type deal i think you pay 98 a year and you get free shipping and i don't know you get some discounts or stuff like that and the stock was up over six percent on that news what the hell is that six percent new all-time record high just based on that and it's not like investors are worried that they're going to take any share from amazon because amazon's stock was up 1.7 today too it hit a new all-time record high so everything is just going up of course the stock that stole the show today was zoom right zoom video came out and their earnings really beat estimates so the stock was up 40 one day this stock which is now 457 dollars a share has a 52 week low of under 61 i mean this thing is soaring i guess they should declare a split pretty soon or maybe wait for a thousand and then they can do a split and then this thing can really start to zoom look i get the idea that more people are using zoom now the question is is this a permanent shift because in order for you to believe that zoom is going to continue uh to have the type of revenues in the future that it has now when everybody is locked down and worried about kovid then you have to assume that everybody's going to stay locked down and they're always going to worry about covet but that's not what the market is assuming everybody's assuming that we're going to have a cure that we're going to have a vaccine the market is booming because the belief is that oh the economy is going to get better well then why are they also assuming that it's never going to get better because that's what you have to believe to assume that you know everybody is going to stay and zoom and they're not going to resume their in-person meetings but all this insanity is because of the fed and you know we've seen examples of this kind of hysteria uh in the past i mean it's not new i think what's new is the extent to which uh the fed is is engaging in this reckless monetary policy but you know you go back to the bubble in japan that we had in the 1980s the twin bubble in stocks and real estate that happened back then and that bubble like all these bubbles was caused by a central bank in this case the bank of japan uh which was creating much too much money printing a lot of money mainly to prop up the dollar and to maintain japanese exports to the united states but in the process uh all of that liquidity moved into the financial markets and we had this huge mania in stocks and real estate and the markets today still have not recovered to the 1980s peaks the stock market and the real estate market are lower today than they were in my 88 89 i forget exactly when the bubble uh topped out but the japanese economy is still suffering the consequences of that bad monetary policy not just the bad policy that inflated the bubble but the bad policy that has existed ever since the bubble popped because the japanese government and the bank of japan has not been willing to allow the markets to fully rectify the enormity of the mistakes that took place during that bubble and so as a result japan did not have nearly as healthy an economic recovery as might otherwise have been the case and in fact just recently uh uh prime minister abe uh you know the founder of abenomics who a lot of people i think is a very successful prime minister again he came in and as far as he was concerned the problem was we didn't have enough inflation we needed even more inflation we need the central bank to print even more money i mean what he should have done is said you know what the problem is we already have too much inflation we printed too much money we've kept interest rates too low but instead he came to the opposite conclusion that we needed him lower for longer that that was the problem that rates weren't low enough long enough we needed even more inflation and that was their whole policy we'll see if they get a different approach with a different prime minister but talk about the definition of insanity and repeating the same mistake over and over again and expecting a different result the japanese have been repeating this mistake now for better than 30 years and they're still expecting a a different result but i remember during the peak of that mania the land that was under the emperor's imperial palace which was you know some gardens and you know some just some you know some land the entire property while it was a big piece of property it was less than a half of a square mile so in the scheme of things it's not a lot of land i mean it's a pretty good size uh plot for for for a house although a palace right but it's less than one half a square mile but the value of that real estate was more than the entire state of california think about that think about the enormity of the state of california how much larger the state of california is even in the entire nation of japan i think you know i think california is bigger than japan but we're talking about less than one half a square mile of japan being worth more than california and california is the most expensive real estate in the country right and all that expensive real estate all that beachfront property beverly hills uh bel air right that property around la but all the laguna beach and san francisco and santa barbara and all newport all this orange county i mean all that land right you know from northern california to you know to to mexico wherever the all the way to the bottom all that real estate combined and it was not even worth a a less than a quarter a half of a square mile of tokyo real estate now i mean clearly that was a bubble but people didn't care i mean it just didn't you know that's it was going to go on forever and that is the attitude i think that people have today people are wildly optimistic on the stock market we rarely get a down day the market just goes higher and higher and higher no one cares about valuations nobody even cares that the fed is the reason that the market is going up nobody wants to fight the fed and people assume that you're going to have to fed on your side the entire time and and nobody even believes that there's any adverse consequences that you know that the fed is printing all this money we're getting all the stimulus the stock market is going up but that there's nothing bad that's going to happen that there are no negative consequences for this policy and of course if that was the case why did the fed wait so long i mean if all they have to do is keep printing all this money and we can just have stocks go up forever why do they have to wait for covet 19 why didn't we just do it before covet 19 and you know and the reason is because there is a consequence it's just that no one gives a damn about the consequences right now
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