저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee는 헤지펀드 등 기관들이 올해 대부분 약세 포지션과 현금 보유로 부진했고(고객 평균 YTD -11.7%, 펀드매니저 80%가 벤치마크 하회) 그 결과 연말 추격 매수 랠리가 나올 수 있으며 이것이 XRP 등 위험자산으로 확장될 수 있다고 주장. 동시에 알트코인 ETF 출시, 스테이블코인 수익 증가(코인베이스 매출 19억 달러, 전년 대비 55%↑) 등을 긍정 근거로 제시. 다만 전체 발언은 주로 시장 구조 설명과 일반론이며 개별 자산 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 1~3개월 예측은 제한적. 비트코인 관련 '연말 15만 달러 필요' 등은 애널리스트 인용.
다듬은 글
Tom Lee, co-founder of Funstrap Global Advisors. This is one of Wall Street's most consistent bulls. And in this CNBC interview, he explains something that is catching a lot of attention right now. He says that most major funds have been positioned bearishly, sitting on too much cash, staying defensive, and that has led to widespread underperformance.
Now, as the market pushes higher, these same funds, they could be forced to chase returns just to catch up. That kind of dynamic can fuel powerful year-end rallies and is a setup that could extend beyond equities into risk assets like crypto, especially XRP, which tends to move fast when momentum shifts back to risk.
Now, before we play this clip, got to read to you the disclosure. This video isformational and entertainment purposes only. It's not financial advice and it should not be taken as such. Let's roll the clip. I wanted to give you some quantitative stats. If you take a AI, which I think is one of the best surveys of high- netw worth retail investors, it's averaged - 11.7 this year.
Negative 11.7. There have only been three other times in that survey's 35- year history where the year-to- date average has been negative. All those times have actually been associated with bare markets and so sentiment has averaged this year what's consistent with a bare market. So it is the most hated V-shaped rally.
Now there may be some people who say they're no longer bearish but their P&L doesn't reflect that. No, that that that that may be fair. Um which leads us to the potential of a chase into year end when they realize that what's at stake for them if they're not engaged. That's right. And we know 80% of fund managers are trailing their respective benchmark this year.
It's the worst in almost 25 years. Tom Lee really showing an interesting dynamic we're in right now. A lot of fund managers, they've underperformed the S&P 500, of course, Bitcoin, all sorts of other things that their investors could do with their money and they're in a chase position now where they either have to look them in the eye and try to explain why they should hang around for another year or possibly lose a lot of money out of their funds.
And this is a great time for crypto as ETFs, especially for altcoins, are going live here shortly. It's a high growth segment where people might in a chase position look to to make up for some loss ground. So, if Tom Lee is correct, this is going to be, you know, a pretty bullish end to this year. We'll have to see it play out, but it seems like a pretty good setup there.
Now, David Schwarz saying the following. This is good to keep in mind. He says, "You have to decide if you think you can tease out all the necessary factors to pick winners and losers. If so, we'll just pick the winners. But if not, if you're not able to see into the future, we'll just bet on the whole sector.
We know the crypto sector will grow faster than real estate and precious metals and most stock indexes. So, sometimes just make it easy on yourself. Get your major cryptos. Uh I have some investments in some D apps and some AI sector and stuff like that and just let it go and it should take care of itself.
And he also goes into, you know, in the 2000s if you're going to pick between Google and and Yahoo and Ask Jeieves and all these different search engines. Uh some people are making the case that, hey, search wasn't a great business. And if you knew [snorts] it was and you could see at least that far into the future, would you pick Google?
I mean, Google tried to sell themselves for 5 million at one point and 50 million another. They themselves didn't know they were going to win. So, how could you, the investor? So, just something to keep in mind. And I think that's a grounded approach that David is saying here that you know sometimes you know what's important but you might not know the specifics.
So play it straight up the middle and just bet on the sector. Not bad advice. Now David also says this. I think institutional adoption is needed to pave the way for the next wave of retail adoption. If DeFi is going to replace Trady, it's going to have to do all the boring things that Trady does. and institutional adoption seems to be the most likely way to make that possible.
Now, what's interesting here is this. What he's saying makes sense, right? Who's going to build out these systems in the future? Probably the institutions. Is that the way it's working at least to date? Well, no. Your your a and your your your makers, they're the ones that are actually getting the most action and that's where the institutions are going.
So, what he thinks is going to play out, that's not what we've seen to date. I think he's right in that aspect that we will see this shift when institutions really jump in here and they have the regulations uh to do so and to build out compliantly. You're going to see the shift in David's future that he sees happening will take place.
It's just you have to know as of now that's not the way it's been. The private sectors built the winners and the institutions are jumping into those spaces. That's just what we've seen to date. But I think of course regulatory issues have have held back David's vision from uh taking effect. We'll see it.
Uh before we continue, just make sure you subscribe to the channel for daily crypto updates. Really appreciate it. Now, we see this. Coinbase rises after revenues climb uh more than estimates. This is from Bloomberg, and it's pretty interesting here. Shares of Coinbase rose more than 8% after the company reported third quarter revenues that surpassed Wall Street's estimates.
So, crypto still doing well. That was also an indicator to a continued bull run. Revenues grew 55% to 1.9 billion, beating the estimate of 1.8. Uh, net income saw a yearly five-fold increase to 433 uh million, up 75 12 million in the same period last year. Now, what's driving this? This is what's interesting.
Well, the biggest driver of this revenue is stable coins. 354 million in revenue from its stake in USDC issuer circle. So, this is going to be a big driver of value in cryptocurrencies. And I think that you'll want to look at those blockchains that support effective and efficient stable coin, you know, issuances and uh transactions and things like that.
That's where you're going to see a lot of growth. Also, derivatives of course was was a big area of growth. 52 million. I mean, it's not as much as stable coins, but it's there. It's significant. That's good to see. Now, there's a lot of people that are worried about Michael Sailor here. C from Bloomberg strategy and analysts sound the alarm on Sailor's Bitcoin premium.
Michael Sailor's Bitcoin treasury company strategy reported a 2.8 billion beat on third quarter net income. But there's at least three Wall Street analysts that have lowered their price targets for the companies. And the analysts here site concerns over shrinking premium on the company's Bitcoin holdings.
So, you know, the premium has been much higher than the value of their holdings, but it keeps shrinking. How do you stay ahead of that? The premium is the multiple at which the company's stock trades compared to its underlying Bitcoin holdings and this makes it a tough environment. Why are they getting a premium?
Because they're using so much debt and they're going to try to continue to do that. But if they don't get that premium from the market, well, it may be tougher to issue uh, you know, all these different financial products they have like their preferred stocks and their bonds and all this kind of stuff.
And if they can't do that, if they can't raise cheap money, well, that's a problem. These analysts are saying that Bitcoin's price would need to hit over 150,000 by year end. A significant jump from where we are now for strategy to continue its momentum. So we'll see that play out. A lot of analysts are worried about strategy as we go forward.
Now the digital euro right now uh we see from Bloomberg digital euro could be cretailed until EU lawmakers uh go over this proposal here. So, the lead EU union lawmaker on the digital euro has introduced a proposal that could significantly curtail or delay the launch of their fully online digital currency.
They plan to actually launch that sucker, have it finalized by the end of 2026, and to go live by 2027. But here's the holdup. They're saying, you know what? What we should do is much like what we're seeing here in the US, we should sit back and see if the private sector if they can come up with these solutions, kind of game that out for us.
see that meets our needs and only if they cannot have a CBDC. Now, honestly myself, that's what I would like to see. I would like to see stable coins running on trustless rails, not these dystopian systems that are designed by the European Union or the US government or anyone else like that. CBDC's or digital uh digital prisons, but we'll see this play out.
This could delay things that transition in the digital era, at least in Europe here. Uh we also see Grayscale. Uh here comes altcoins. So they're seeing this transition. They're looking at ETF inflows to Ethereum. They're looking at the uh ETFs pending for XRP, Salana, Cardano, and a whole swath of altcoins.
And they think this may be the alt season we've all been waiting on. If that dynamic actually comes to the fold or not, we'll have to wait and see. But that's what Grayscale seeing. This is the moment where all coins start to kind of outperform here. Now here we have the head of trade for Black Rockck and he's saying one of the problems here is institutions are trying to figure out crypto.
How do they look at this Bitcoin and really by extension the broader crypto market is this a digital gold? Is this a hedge uh against other financial assets? Is this some sort of risk asset like a tech stock? Let's hear what he has to say. It's pretty interesting trying to understand the risk and return drivers of this because when you look at it fundamentally as a global scarce emerging monetary instrument that that looks a lot like digital gold to many people and that is uh detached from the risk factors that affect any one country or their economy monetary political fiscal situation etc.
That looks like a diversifier and a hedge on a fundamental level. But then you see this noise in terms of short-term trading episodes where people talk about risk on. That's a bit of a dubious concept to to begin with. Um but especially so when you try to apply it to Bitcoin because Bitcoin clearly is a risky asset on a standalone basis, but in a portfolio and with very different return drivers, uh it can play that important diversifying role.
So you see these episodes where you have the leveraged perpetual futures kind of create outsiz volatility relative to you know what they really are as a percentage of of the market and that gives institutional investors pause and they say well we kind of get the thesis but we really need to understand where do we think long-term correlations headed and is actually going to behave the way we think it fundamentally should and our view at Black Rockck is over the medium and long term that it will but certainly uh institutional investors are paying a lot of attention to some of that trading behavior.
trying to so I think the thing is here that crypto is many things is it a digital gold or let's say a monetary value that can't be debased well absolutely bitcoin xrp these these cryptos can be used as monies fair monies fair monies than what we traditionally get with fiat currencies they are those things are they kind of like tech ecosystems where you can launch applications and financial systems on top yeah they're that too so that kind of is we have to look at it in a different way.
So it's quite complex really what crypto is. It's growing into be many things. But I think all are are valuable ways to look at this asset class and try to value it out. Now the other problem is it's very risky. It's very volatile at least let's say. So the prices jump all around. These are are shallow markets.
These are volatile markets and these are for the most part illquid markets. So it's kind of like as we grow and we mature a lot of that will kind of go away. It'll fade away. But it's the reality of where we stand today. So, is it a is it a store of value? Is it a is it a fair money? Yes. Is it a tech system?
Yes. You have to kind of look at all of this stuff and try to put it together to come up with some kind of fair value. And it's very new and institutions are trying to wrap their mind around this space here. Now, Arc Invest here, we see Arc Invest crypto exposure tops 2.15 billion as bullish holdings rise across three funds.
So, Arc Invest has increased its cryptoreated holdings with total exposure to the sector now exceeding $2 billion. So, Kathy Wood, she's betting on a bullish future here for crypto. This week, Arc uh purchased an additional 105,000 shares of the crypto exchange Bullish, a CoinDesk parent company for about 5.3 million.
And remember this, Bullish was one of the launch partners for RLUSD with Ripple. Uh, pretty interesting there. The firm's total uh stake in Bullish is now approximately 2.2 2 million shares. To increase its crypto allocation, Arc has been trimming positions in tech stocks like Palanteer, Shopify, and the crypto related asset allocation uh varies by fund.
So, anywhere from 29% down to 17.7% but still making up a significant portion of Kathy Wood's overall investment portfolio. Again, these are the pillars of the future of finance right there with AI and uh you have the intersection of AI, blockchain, and they come together to really build the future of global finance here.
Paul Baron saying XRP uh plot twist is what Brad Garlinghouse was working uh on all along here. Every major bank is trying to launch its own stable coin. So, people go, "Oh, no. This is competitive versus uh what Ripple's doing. This is competitive versus what XRP ledger, the utility it can provide.
And this is what he's saying. We see JP Morgan, Bank of America, City, Wells Fargo, a consortium of stable coins. Something something has to make these interoperate with. And you know, City Bank, they're not going to want to use Bank of America coin. JP Morgan's not going to want to use Wells Fargo's coin.
So, you have to have that settlement layer. Someone still has to solve that problem. Otherwise, it's kind of similar we have now, right? We have these different ledgers and we got to figure out how to settle between them. It's not that much difference. But going digital will help uh you know the leaders in these spaces build out these uh systems.
Ripple uh like David Schwarz and other executives from Ripple have said before they don't want to build all this stuff. It would be their uh you know best scenario if a lot of that was already built and then they could go boom with Ripple uh uh pay right over top of it XRP ledger wired up and they're ready to go.
This is part of the building uh issue. But still those stable coins on their their own networks there wall gardens may be bigger ones maybe more efficient ones but wall gardens all the same and settlement layers like XRP ledger will still be needed for that future here. Uh just in Salana versus Ripple.
Salana official account ignites a clash claiming that Ripple is not on the same level. Uh this is kind of childish to some extent. Uh, in a lot of ways, Salana is competitive versus uh, Ethereum, right? They're both smart contract blockchains going for the same market. Ripple is kind of a Bitcoin with additional features.
They're kind of competitive for certain markets there. And I would say Salana needs to worry more about Ethereum layer 2. I think most of your main players that they're not paid by Salana. If they're launching a type of system and they're considering Salana, they're probably going with an layer 2. This would be, you know, Sony, Swift themselves, JP Morgan, you name it.
They might test Salana, they might use it, they might incorporate it, but Ethereum layer 2, that's kind of where it's at right now in in the in the field that Salana is playing in. You've seen Coinbase, they're making millions of dollars a month from their Ethereum layer 2. You know, Black Rockck is also building on that.
So, that's really what they should be worried about. not about XRP or Ripple, but again, we're closer market cap, so they're trying to claw their way up the market cap ranking, of course. Lastly, I'll leave you here with Bill Gates. And uh not one of my favorites, but I think he articulates a point I've been trying to make about a potential bubble here with an AI because that's fueling everything.
The AI spend is fueling the tech market. It's fueling crypto and all that. So, how much longer do we have here? Are we going to hit a a bubble with AI? Is AI everything we've heard? Let's play this to end the video here. We need to define bubble. If if what we mean is like tulips in the Netherlands that they eventually looked back and said, "What the heck?
There was nothing there. Those were just tulips." No, that's not where we are. If you mean it's like the internet bubble where in the end something very profound happened. The world was very different. Some companies succeeded, but a lot of the companies were kind of meto fell behind uh burning capital companies.
Absolutely. There are a ton of these investments um that will be deadends and you look at all the investments that are being made today. And we've seen this with crypto as well, right? like you know people pile into dumb stuff it blows up their investment goes to zero the space goes through these bull and bare market cycles quite you know quickly really they're not long pro drawn out cycles but uh AI is going to be the same thing we're going to you know like he says in this video buy a bunch of chips and then oh no here comes a new bunch of chips that replace it and we didn't recoup all our money this kind of stuff is going to happen but if you're in tech if you're going to be a technology company you got to jump in here if you're a financial company you got to get into blockchain you can't just sit back and let it all play out.
So, will there be bubbles? Well, yeah, there can be bubbles even if a technology is is very real. We've seen it with Bitcoin. We've seen it with Ethereum. We've seen it with XRP, right? You have these sell-offs and it's very dramatic and we will probably have that with an AI as well. But the end result is going to be a new future where you know this technology changes life completely.
Let me know what you think down below. As always, please like, please subscribe. The revolution will be televised right here on Jungle Inc. And you look at all the investments that are being made today by some of the big tech companies, some companies who are not making money on AI yet, but are making massive commitments to chipmakers and data centers and say this math makes sense.
Um the AI is the biggest technical thing ever in my lifetime. I mean it is so profound and therefore its influence is hard to overstate and the economic value this is basically intelligence uh you know where you can get medical advice or you can get a tutor or you can get somebody to help you design drugs.
So the value is extremely high. Uh just like creating the internet ended up being in net very very valuable but you have a frenzy and you know some of these companies will be glad they spent all this money. Some of them, you know, they'll commit to data centers that whose electricity is too expensive, you know, that it could be done overseas or they'll buy a generation of chips and and you know, they won't have captured all their value before the next uh one comes along.
But, you know, if you want to be a tech company, you don't get to say no uh you know, let's check out of this race. What do you think the
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