저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
요약 보기
Grantham은 현재 시장이 장기 거품 붕괴와 구조적 인플레이션 국면에 진입했다고 경고한다. 거품 붕괴 경고: 2000년 TMT 버블과 유사하게 나스닥 종목의 절반 가까이가 고점 대비 50% 하락했고, 밈주식·SPAC·ARK 계열 성장주가 급락했다. 나스닥은 큰 폭 하락했으나 S&P500은 상대적으로 버텼다. 경기침체·금융위기 가능성: 향후 1~2년 내 경기침체 확률이 높고, 과도한 부채로 인해 최소 부분적 금융위기가 촉발될 수 있다고 본다. 인플레이션 구조: 21세기 초 기업 이익률 상승과 금리 하락 등 체제 변화가 있었으나, 자원 고갈로 장기 인플레이션 전망은 매우 나쁘다. 구리·리튬·코발트·니켈 등 탈탄소에 필요한 금속은 공급 부족이 반복될 것이다. 지정학·농업: 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁은 장기 냉전으로 이어질 수 있으며, 전쟁 특수는 일부 산업에 수혜를 줄 수 있다. 식량 가격지수는 2011년 고점 수준이며 기후 변화로 농업 여건이 악화되고 있다. 인구·노동: 선진국 20대 노동 공급이 감소하고 있으며, 중국은 노동 과잉에서 부족 국면으로 전환되고 있다. 출연자 전망: 장기적으로 주식시장에 어려운 환경을 예상하며, 특정 종목(양자컴퓨팅 관련 QuantumScape 등)의 고평가를 지적했다.
다듬은 글
we had enough unpredictability anyway without this and I had I had become pretty confident that we were from a psychological point of view running through the usual game and we were losing confidence in the High Flyers losing confidence in the super specs and and I thought the probability of a recession in the next year or two was pretty high and I thought sooner or later with all the debt around that is going to trigger a uh at least a partial financial crisis so you have a plentiful supply of big negatives that could happen and and as you get out a year or two you get into this field where I think the long-term outlook for inflation is really quite bad because we are basically running out of resources this time is different but really the five most dangerous words were this time is never different because from time to time things absolutely change and they changed in the early 21st century and and we went to a regime of kind of corporate Paradise where peas were not just higher than the previous 60 years they averaged 60 percent higher where profit margins were not just higher but they averaged close to 40 percent higher so profits as a percentage of GDP went up several points and wages as a percentage of GDP fell a few points so these are profound differences and they were accompanied by the lowest interest rates in the history of man which declined for 20 well they declined for 50 years but they declined the entire 21st century almost a half of the NASDAQ stocks are down 50 from their High and the one or two of the superstars of the craziest ones had already started down when we spoke my favorite quantumscape as fact that came at 10 went to 130 worth 55 billion dollars with four years still to wait before they had any revenues forget profits and the biggest tolling I had ever had in my life it made me personally to be blunt a quick 500 million dollars uh on paper but it couldn't be sold for six months and I opined that it would probably not get to the six months and by the time the six months was up it was down to 25 so it was down 80 percent today it's 15.
and that has led the charge but by the middle of last year it was joined by a lot of the AMC's The Bitcoins and and The Game Stops the meme the meme stocks in in short the meme ideas since Bitcoin isn't a stock and they they kind of peeled up and joined in the whole SPAC index was a disaster the Kathy Woods ETF went down 50 60 percent uh and and they were the more exciting stocks of the previous year and this is eerily like um 2000 in 2000 the growth stocks the tmts they call them technology media and Telecom they peeled off starting with the flakiest and most speculative first the ones who tripled the year before and then it worked the way through the system until it finally got to Cisco but by the Fall they were down badly and and the rest of the market was still up so the s p in on September the 1st to be exact I looked at it yesterday got back to where it had been in March and the NASDAQ itself off of off a big hit had a big rally uh in the summer and then the whole thing rolled over and everything went down 50 incidentally the ones that had been hit by 30 or 40 also went down 50 from a uh a worse starting point so the NASDAQ ended up minus 82.
and that patent has been creepily like the one we've been watching so that 12 months ago uh yes the s p is still up at 16 but the Russell 2000 is down and that's the one we shot against our huge holding of of DC and so that hasn't been nearly as painful as you would suggest suddenly the world has changed a bit and as a historian I can say with confidence that these geopolitical events are murderously difficult to predict if you could tell me how long it would last you know you even then it would be difficult but it could in a month they could have a regime change in Russia and we could be in a honeymoon period again all of this could drag drag on to be absolutely the start of a multi-year super cold war and and it would have repercussions everywhere Wars are not obviously bad for stock markets they do set in and process a lot of capex a lot of new products a lot of War profiteering if you will um so it isn't necessarily a doom for the stock market it's a miserable time for everybody else but in Wartime people do work harder and produce more the cheapest copper ores and lithium Cobalt nickel the stuff you need to Electrify the system they've all gone we have no great capex projects up Our Sleeve we've actually since China slowed down in 2011.
the cafe has dwindled way down there aren't plentiful Reserves so as we Gear Up to decarbonize we'll be bumping our head almost guaranteed on shortages from time to time of these critical metals and then you have the problem of Labor which in the short-term basis everyone's saying where have they all gone but in a long term basis I can tell you where they've gone they were never born you know there is no improvement in in the baby output over the last 20 years we have slightly been declining so we can guarantee since they're already alive that the supply of 20 year olds entering the market in the developed world in the US and in China will be declining the U.N food index is back to those highs of 2011.
and Ukraine is not a bystand for Ukraine is part of the Great bread basket of Europe it's where wheat comes from into the export market so if you're an Egyptian you know half year imported wheat comes from the Ukraine so this is entirely relevant and you add together the change in the weather at least in the Arab Spring people weren't obsessing about floods droughts and and higher temperatures but that has become painfully more obvious in the last 10 years and it's making agriculture very difficult system is so complicated they're always different but I think the last 20 years has been completely different indeed I wrote a quarterly letter in in 2017 saying I couldn't find anything that wasn't different um and that the four most dangerous words in investing were not this is totally unlike the Goldilocks era of the last 20 years or indeed the post-world War II era we've had a plentiful supply of of new labor and and in Japan of course we had all those semi-redundant Farmers plowing into into the cities and getting plugged into a very frankly a very efficient hard-working capitalist System 500 million of them and then 200 million Eastern Europeans uh actually starting to seriously work so that completely cluttered if you will with global labor market and put pressure on labor everywhere and now you wave your magic wand and you find quite abruptly China's gone from an excess labor Supply to a shortage around the corner
Comments 0