저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 미국 경제가 붕괴 과정에 있으며, 금리와 유가 상승·주택시장 붕괴·AI 부채 위기가 겹쳐 금은 상승, 장기금리는 추가 상승할 것이라는 주장. [경기·인플레이션] 트럼프 행정부 1기 2년간 물가 상승폭이 바이든 말기 2년보다 크고 GDP 성장은 더 약하다고 주장. 경기는 약하고 물가는 다시 상승 전환했다고 평가. 연준이 금리를 올려도 너무 늦었고 인플레이션은 계속 오를 것이며 연준은 점점 뒤처질 것이라고 봄. [유가·환율] 전쟁을 확대하지 않더라도 유가는 더 오를 것으로 전망. 전략비축유 방출이 끝나면 유가 상승 압력이 커지고, 달러가 꺾이면 미국인의 유가 부담이 더 커질 것이라고 언급. 유가와 장기금리는 같이 움직이는 강한 상관관계가 있다고 봄. 달러의 하락 여부는 아직 발생하지 않았으나 하락 시 상승 압력 가중. [주택] 주택시장이 매우 불안하며 주택판매는 20년 이래 최저, 건설업자 심리도 20년 이래 최저. 저금리 주택담보대출 보유자가 많아 당분간 버티지만 결국 주택가격 하락(재가격 조정)은 불가피하다고 전망. 금리 5~6% 대출자는 상환 부담이 커질 것. 2008년과 달리 이제 은행은 부실 대출뿐 아니라 정상 상환 대출에서도 손실을 보며 금융권 손실이 막대할 것이라고 주장. [기술주·AI] 일론 머스크의 발언을 언급하며 고위험 투자 선호가 빠르게 식고 있다는 해석. AI 관련 데이터센터 등 자본지출을 위해 막대한 차입이 필요하고 금리 상승으로 부담이 커지며, 수익으로 부채를 상환할 수 있을지 불확실하다고 봄. 정부 부채가 이미 많은 상황에서 AI 부채 문제가 국가부채 위기로 번질 가능성 제기. [금] 금은 4,000달러 지지선 부근에서 등락. 시장은 금리 인상을 금 약세로 보지만, 실질금리는 인플레이션 상승 때문에 오히려 크게 하락하고 있어 금에 강세 요인이라고 주장. 금과 은 모두 신고가를 향할 것이며 지금이 매수 기회라고 강조. 다만 직선으로 오르지 않으며 차익실현 조정은 있을 수 있음. [금리] 미국 10년물은 약 5.3% 고점 후 조정, 현재 5% 소폭 아래. 추가 하락은 제한적이며 다음 상승 목표는 5.5%, 이후 6%. 장기적으로 더 크게 오를 것이라고 전망. 연준의 추가 인상은 50~75bp 정도로 크지 않을 것으로 봄. [리스크] 주택가격 하락, 은행 손실 확대, AI 부채 위기, 국가부채 위기, 유가 상승 등이 상호 연쇄 작용할 위험 경고. 연준 인상이 금융기관 손실을 키워 과거 실리콘밸리은행 사태 같은 충격을 재현할 수 있다고 봄. [출연자 전망 정리] 미국 경제 붕괴 가속, 물가·금리 고공행진, 금 신고가, 주택 붕괴가 핵심 시나리오. 미국 정치(중간선거 전 군사행동 논란)에 대한 비판도 포함.
다듬은 글
I think that there's going to be a big problem with all of the the resources and all of the, you know, the money that needs to be borrowed in order to pay for this at a time where governments are already borrowing so much money and there's not a lot of savings and there's also not a huge abundance of spare capacity with these resources.
So there's going to be all these bottlenecks that could blow everything up and we could easily have a debt crisis, a sovereign debt crisis before we get an answer to the question of how how much productivity and profitability is going to flow to the providers of AI. The US economy is is in the process of breaking.
When that is going to accelerate into a crisis, it's it's hard to say, but we're certainly heading in that direction. Doesn't matter if the Fed hikes rates, it's too little too late. Inflation is going to keep rising. The Fed is going to fall further and further behind the curve with each hike. &. How far do you think the global economy could take this war?
H how far how how high would oil prices go before the economy breaks? The Trump administration is talking about doing something after the midterms, which I think, you know, in and of itself is suspicious because you should not be planning military action around our elections because that's an admission that is all political.
Um, so I I don't like the whole idea that, you know, things should be done after the election because you don't want uh the what you're doing to have an impact on the election. But um I think oil prices are going higher regardless of whether or not we escalate this war. And I don't think that escalating it means that we're going to win it uh or that it's going to bring victory any closer uh than than it already is.
Um, so I I think what's really going to have an impact is when we have to turn off the spigots from the strategic petroleum reserve and you know we have to deal with uh the actual uh oil and not not all this extra oil and if we get to see a decline in the dollar which hasn't happened yet but if the dollar finally rolls over and falls that will also be pushing up oil prices for Americans.
It may be restraining them some somewhat for the rest of the world. Uh but it will certainly be adding to the upward pressure uh that Americans are seeing with with oil prices. But it's a combination too. It's not just the price of oil. It's actually the price of everything that's going up and and and and the cost of credit.
So interest rates are also going up. Fact, there's a pretty strong correlation between oil prices and interest rates or you know long-term bond yields. they're they're rising together and yeah, the US economy is is in the process of breaking. When that is going to accelerate into a crisis, it's it's hard to say, but we're certainly heading in that direction.
I think the main reason that Donald Trump's popularity continues to hit new lows is because the economy is weak and all of the talk about the strong economy is is just talk. The reality is that the economy is weak and uh prices are are rising. Uh we have, you know, a bigger increase in prices happening now than we did under Biden.
Uh certainly under Biden's last two years, the first two years of Trump have seen bigger price increases than the last two years of Biden. So, uh you know, we've turned that corner and inflation is headed up now, not down. Uh and GDP growth has actually been weaker. Uh during Trump's first two years, the GDP is going to grow less than it did under Biden's last two years.
So the economy has weakened, inflation has strengthened. That is the opposite of what Trump promised. And it's the opposite of what he is pretending is happening. What would break first? What would be things you'd be looking out for? Uh well, you know, I think you could see housing. The housing market is in a very precarious position.
uh you know sales are the weakest they've been in in in over 20 years which means they're weaker than they were you know in the early uh years after the financial crisis and collapse of the housing market and builder sentiment is the lowest it's been in over 20 years uh because it cost a lot to build a new home and nobody can afford to buy it.
So the whole industry is in a lot of trouble. But what has been kind of keeping some of the uh the real damage at bay is the fact that homeowners, a lot of homeowners still have very low mortgages and they can afford to make the payments on the homes that they can't sell. But eventually you're going to see a repricing lower of home prices regardless of people uh holding on to homes who have those low interest rates.
And not everybody has a 3 or 4% mortgage. There are plenty of people uh with five 6% mortgages. Even though current rates are closer to 7 and a half, uh they still may not be able to afford to make those payments and the incentive to do so will disappear once their home equity is gone. So, I still think that you have a major uh crisis coming from a collapse in home prices.
And I think the losses to banks in the financial system will be staggering because not only are the lenders losing money or will they lose money when mortgages default and home prices are down, but they lose money on every mortgage that does not default. And that is a a a huge difference between the '08 crisis and now.
Back then, the lenders only lost money on 10% of the mortgages that defaulted. They actually had unrealized gains on the 90% that didn't default. Now, they have losses on pretty much all the mortgages, whether they default or not. Uh they just may have greater losses on defaulted mortgages uh if real estate prices really tank, which it looks to me like they're going to do, you know.
And then you have the reverse wealth effect of uh you know all these retirees uh watching their home equity you know vanish. The fragility of the tech sector in the last few days and weeks. I think I was reading a comment that Elon made is implying that you know appetite for that level of risk is drying up pretty quickly.
It's hard to know what the motivation for Musk is uh for those statements. I mean, maybe he believes it or maybe he's trying to make it harder for competition to raise money uh by talking about the fact that it's hard for companies to borrow money. But but I agree there's a lot of money that's being borrowed.
Uh the the interest rates that companies are paying is rising. Um you know, the question is can these companies continue to get access to credit? Can they afford to pay the higher rates? Will the investments they're making in the AI related capex uh the data centers all the compute uh will that provide enough revenue to repay the debts with the interest uh and make you know a good profit for the companies?
I don't know. uh you know is there are a lot of factors that I that I that I don't know uh how they'll play out with respect to uh AI and and what you know what the value will be uh that these companies are providing relative to what their competitors may be able to provide at a lower cost I don't know you know this whole thing is evolving very quickly um you know around AI but I I think that there's going to be a big problem with all of the the resources and all of the you know the money that needs to be borrowed in order to pay for this at a time where you know governments are already borrowing so much money and there's not a lot of savings and there's also not a huge abundance of spare capacity with these resources.
So there's going to be all these bottlenecks that could blow everything up and we could easily have a debt crisis, a sovereign debt crisis before we get an answer to the question of how how much productivity and profitability is going to flow to the providers of AI. Well, gold's been banging around the $4,000 support.
It did dip below it slightly, but didn't really stay there. But I think again investors have got this trade wrong. They keep looking at rising bond yields. They look at the Fed and the fact that the Fed is going to raise rates. And all this is seen as being bearish for gold. And so traders are selling gold based on, you know, the idea that the Fed's going to hike rates because inflation is is too high.
But inflation is too high because the Fed lacked the ability to raise rates high enough to contain it. The reason the Fed stopped hiking rates originally was because things started to break, not because inflation was was was vanquished, but because uh Signature Valley Bank uh was was failing and other banks uh were were starting to fail because of their exposure to the bond market, to the mortgage market.
Well, you're now getting even more downward pressure on on lender balance sheets uh based on falling bond prices and falling value of of of mortgage back securities. So, I don't think there's that many rate hikes coming. But even if we get all the rate hikes that the market seems to anticipate, maybe another 50 or 75 basis points, that's nothing.
The inflation has already risen. The official inflation rate has risen by more than that. uh since the time that markets expected the Fed to cut rates. So I would argue that real rates are actually falling and they're falling rather sharply and that is bullish for gold and traders haven't figured that out yet.
That's the buying opportunity for the people who understand this doesn't matter if the Fed hikes rates. It's too little too late. Inflation is going to keep rising. The Fed is going to fall further and further behind the curve with each hike. Uh so gold's going to new highs. So is silver. So people should be buying now before investors figure out what they already should know.
Nothing goes up at a straight line. You know, there are traders. People take profits. Um so I I think bond bond yields are going to keep rising. the, you know, the high that we set. I think we got to about um five point maybe 69 on a 30-year and I think 5.33ish on the 10-year before we've pulled back.
In fact, the 10-year yield is now slightly below 5%. But I doubt it will go much lower than here. And I think, you know, the next move up will be five and a half, then six. Uh, you know, this is a long journey and rates are not going to stop at six. There's no reason. They they they need to go a lot higher and they ultimately will go a lot higher.
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