저자: RoyceJacob · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 연준이 다음 회의에서 공격적 매파 톤보다는 다소 완화된 톤을 보일 것이며, 금리 인상 폭은 100bp가 아닌 75bp가 유력하다고 본다. 자신의 전망: 최근 휘발유 가격 하락 등을 근거로 7월 CPI가 둔화될 것으로 보며, 연준도 이를 가정하고 있을 것이라 주장. 연준 전망: 연준이 과거 수차례 소극적·낙관적 태도를 보였던 점을 들어, 이번에도 상황을 낙관적으로 포장하는 톤을 유지할 가능성이 크다고 봄. 빌 애크먼 주장 정리: 애크먼은 연준이 인플레이션 억제를 위해 고금리를 장기간 유지하고, 금리 인하 시점을 암시하지 말아야 한다고 촉구. 발언 취지는 시장이 연준의 방향 전환을 기대하면 금리 인상 효과가 약해진다는 것. 애크먼 관련 평가: 애크먼이 공매도 포지션을 가졌을 것이라는 추정이 제시됨. 과거 코로나 때 공개 발언 후 매수에 나섰던 사례도 언급되며, 미디어를 활용하는 경향에 대한 경계가 함께 언급됨. 시장 전망: 연준 회의 결과에 따라 시장이 안도 랠리를 보일 것이라는 기대. 구독 서비스 및 성장주·중소형주 포트폴리오 홍보가 포함됨. 리스크: 인플레이션이 다시 상승할 가능성, 연준 정책 불확실성이 언급됨.
다듬은 글
boom what is up waves capital it's royce jacob welcome back to the channel in this quick video we're going to be talking about what investing legend bill ackman thinks the fed should do at their upcoming meeting and also speculate on whether or not jerome powell and the federal reserve will be raising interest rates by a hundred basis points and if so what that means for the market okay so we'll kick off the video by reading through the cnbc pro article titled bill lachman says powell must show resolve against inflation can't signal fed will reverse course so bill ackman i mean very respected but very controversial at times figure in the investment in financial space uh so his words do hold weight uh we'll read over this he is really directly calling out jerome powell which is why i'm kind of leaning into that title and uh just just the theme of this video and uh what i think the fed will do in almost reaction because because the fed is for sure listening to what bill ackman's saying what the fed is likely to do given what bill ackman's saying here okay so read over this article but before we do that i just want to read over a short piece that i wrote on this subject in the newsletter that i sent out this morning because it kind of summarizes my thoughts on what's going to go down here and of course i will be expanding on this as we dive more into this article okay so aside from earnings which have been pretty all over the place earnings season has been crazy so far uh subscribe to the newsletter if you want to tune in for more earnings talk but aside from those earnings tomorrow is a massive day for the macro the federal reserve will be addressing their plan of attack moving forward and investors will be paying close attention to the tone that jerome powell uses during tomorrow's meeting it's not guaranteed but it does seem extremely likely that we see the july cpi data showing signs of cooling inflation when it's released earlier next month so this is just my theory but it also just makes sense and a good very very general gauge of this is the price of gasoline and the first thing that comes to mind is funny enough the price of avocados big avocado guy but anyway and i also died i don't even buy avocados i look at the price of avocados but i do grow we literally have like four different strains of avocado trees aside from that besides the point the price of gas is significantly coming down right if you guys just go to the gas station gas is now cheaper than it was three four weeks ago right so that shows that the numbers from july and keep in mind you guys the cpi data the consumer price index data that is released at the beginning of each month or near the beginning of each month so this will be coming out in a week or so is a lagging indicator right so your that the cpi data that report is from the month prior and uh it only makes sense again just anecdotally just boots on the ground you guys look around things are beginning to get a little bit cheaper the economy is still in a weird place i'm not saying that inflation is going back to i mean it's not going to be it's not going to be good anytime soon but it's not going to be terrible and it's not gonna be scorching hot like it has been the past couple of months okay and again this isn't guaranteed this is just my opinion inflation could absolutely go up but it seems pretty evident to me that this this upcoming cpi data again the july cpi data that is released in early august is going to be lighter the fed knows it's going to be lighter the fed is assuming it's going to be lighter and therefore i actually don't think contrary to bill ackman that the fed is going to come out guns are blazing tomorrow i personally believe that the fed will come out with a slightly less hawkish or less negative tone given the fact that they've they've done so pretty much every time they have been so passive and so uh almost so confrontational and and so heads in the clouds about the fact that we're in a recession and uh i think although it's obvious that they haven't been doing their job i think they're gonna stay in that almost state of blissful ignorance and really just cross their fingers in the hopes that things get better just to kind of save face and save their asses okay there's a lot of speculation going on this video i really did just kind of want to make this video for fun and also get some feedback from you guys uh from waves capital what are you guys thinking is going to go down in this fed meeting and what reaction do you think the markets will have my bet is that the markets will see some relief because that once again i don't think contrary to blackman which we will read through right now uh at least his thoughts that is uh contrary to bill ackman i think that uh the fed is gonna come out i definitely don't think they're gonna raise rates by 100 basis points i think 75 is on the table and i think that they're going to try to make the argument that the economy isn't that bad that they do but they do see inflation cooling over the coming months okay so again let me know what you guys think down below but that said let's get into some thoughts from mr bill ackman and of course if you guys want the daily newsletters if you want to break down on my full personal portfolio you got to know how i'm trading through this volatility uh primarily some some growth stocks some small to mid cap stocks that i'm really really excited about now going into earnings season next month first link down below 15 bucks a month 40 bucks for every three months um i mean i trust i trust you'll be sticking around you can always unsubscribe but i trust you'll stick around if you do welcome to the winning team welcome to waves capital that said let's read over mr ackman's words billionaire hedge fund manager bill ackman william ackman once again urged the federal reserve to tamp down surging inflation by committing to keeping higher rates for longer keeping higher rates for longer without signaling a plan to reverse course quote the biggest risk to the u.s economy is not the fed raising rates it is inflation which is hurting consumer and business confidence and pricing consumers out of a new home a car gas and meals on the table ackman said tuesday in a series of tweets so right off the bat i guess not right off the bat it's pretty deep in the video but it seems pretty clear to me that mr ackman has a pretty big short position in place if he is so publicly urging the federal reserve to raise rates which again maybe they will they for sure put bill ackman again is one of the most highly regarded although some some as i said earlier occasionally controversial individuals in the financial markets he is still highly touted still highly respected and there's no chance the fed isn't taking his words into consideration or they or that they don't put weight on his words okay massive capital allocator but as i said earlier i just think the fed is gonna stay in that state of blissful ignorance and uh i think that bill ackman who has been known notoriously in the past why i say controversial during covid he he was like pretty much crying on cnbc about how the world was ending the world was melting took out a short position prior to that but right after that as everything sold off following that viral clip he bought so many shares in a bunch of companies that just ended up ripping so uh i get he is known to use the media in his favor because he probably has a trade in place so that is a caveat here and that was also a reason that i wanted to make this just because it's kind of a fun subject but uh more on this quote the fed understands this and therefore i expect fed chair jerome powell will show hawkish resolve on not only maintaining higher rates for longer but also being open to a terminal rate meaningfully higher at three point uh than 3.4 percent he added so let's read over a few of his tweets here and then we'll close out the video by reading over a little bit of this for the first time a proposed renewal of an audit contract for one of our companies was presented with an inflation factor to justify the increase in the annual fee the biggest risk to the us economy is not the federal raising rates it is inflation which is hurting the consumer and the more the market believes that the fed will immediately reverse course the less effective raising rates will be in moderating inflation and the more the fed will have to raise rates inflation has become embedded in the economy and is in the front of mind for every american so repeated some of that but that is the words directly from bill ackman and uh it will be interesting to see once again how the fitter reacts the fed is widely expected this is just kind of endless estimates right here so again just going over some different uh uh varying beliefs here uh we'll know tomorrow right the fed is widely expected to raise interest rates by another three quarters of a point wednesday putting the fed funds rate in a range of 2.25 to 2.5 percent the fed started lifting rates from near zero in march to combat inflation that has reached levels not seen in four decades the pershing square hedge fund manager ackman believes inflation has become embedded in the economy and is top of mind of every american the cpi uh consumer price index rose soared soared 9.1 percent in june from the year earlier period above the 8.8 dow jones estimate it was the steepest rise since november of 81.
ackman said it's likely powell will be asked about the timing for cutting rates adding that that it's important for him to signal the central bank's willingness to stay the course and aggressively hike rates until inflation is under control the more the market believes the fed will immediately reverse course the less effective raising rates will be in moderating inflation and the more the fed will have to raise rates so it's kind of a weird flywheel right there that he's explaining this isn't the first time the high profile investor has publicly called on the fed attack seriously to control raging inflation he previously said that the markets will soar once investors can be confident that the days of runaway inflation are over okay so that's that you guys again this was more of just a fun video a little thought experiment video but i really want you guys feedback on this let me know in the comments down below what you think is going to go down tomorrow or today if you have to be watching this on wednesday and uh what you guys think the market reaction will be so i'll catch you guys downstairs in the comments again if you want to join waves capital you want to join the winning team first link down below every daily newsletter trade alert macro analysis and price targets newsletter and a full breakdown of my personal portfolio that is updated every single trading day okay so until next time you guys always remember take action make waves peace team
Comments 0