저자: 미상 · 외국인
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마이크론·샌디스크 등 메모리 종목이 차트상 주요 지지선 이탈로 약세 신호를 보임. 중국 CXMT의 기술 진전으로 공급 증가 우려, 메모리 가격 상승률 둔화(2차 미분) 가능성 제기. 과거 메모리 주가는 성장 정점에서 먼저 꺾였다는 점을 근거로 경계감 표명. 다만 AI 섹터 자체는 긍정적으로 보며 메모리 종목 신고점 재도달 가능성은 약 50/50으로 평가. 진행자는 샌디스크 보유 중이나 축소·청산 가능성을 검토 중.
다듬은 글
Today, let's take a look at the stocks of memory manufacturers, namely how Micron, SanDisk, Seagate and many others are doing. We will look at the charts as they appear to have some key drawdowns. So, we need to discuss that, and also look at some fundamental changes and where I think this particular sector is headed.
Are these stocks a good investment now ? Let's get down to business. So, first of all, of course, we have Micron. This is a key chart that I talked about before, and you really got some breakout from around the $1,000 level . You managed to hold this level as support until today, when we actually returned to this parallel channel to some extent.
The price is currently at the 50- day EMA near the $995 level. We'll have to see how Micron closes today because I believe a significant close again inside this parallel channel would be quite a bearish signal. Micron had very positive earnings, but the stock didn't see much demand after that. This in itself can be a warning sign.
Typically, when such stocks fail to respond to strong earnings, it may be a sign that the peak at some level has already been passed. So we have to keep that in mind as a potential factor. This doesn't necessarily have to be the case, but it's definitely a bearish signal worth considering. So now you're teetering on the brink of an even bigger drop in Micron stock.
If you break inside the parallel channel, you can expect support somewhere around the $950 level . On the other hand, a drop to $900, in my opinion, would again be a good place to wait for a rebound. On the downside, we have a 200-day moving average of around $750, and in a worst-case scenario, we could theoretically even get back to $500 if we were to break down to the lower boundary of this Micron parallel channel.
So, at the moment, the situation with stocks looks like this . We'll have to wait as they're down about 3% so far. Will they be able to recover a bit by the end of the session? This will be key information to take into account. Why are these stocks falling today? Well, the main reason is that CXMT, a Chinese DRAM manufacturer, has made some breakthroughs in its technology.
So, they will probably be able to increase supply volumes in the future. I think the market is very nervous. He is concerned that the supply of different types of memory, both HBM and NAND, could become a problem. Of course, SanDisk is more focused on NAND, and we see some slowdown at least in memory price forecasts for the next few quarters.
I have a graph that demonstrates what I'm talking about, namely—a certain leveling off in growth rates. This does not mean that prices for memory itself are falling. No, it just means that growth, the acceleration of price increases, is slowing down. So this is the second derivative of this growth. So it's not necessarily the end of the world, right ?
At some point you expect growth to slow down and there will be a certain stage of stabilization. But, in general, in the past, memory company stocks peaked when growth peaked, not when the company's actual profits peaked. Typically, the stock price peaks before earnings themselves begin to decline. And now, looking at the stock chart of memory companies, in particular SanDisk, I see a rather bearish sentiment.
We had this parallel channel that I was talking about. Previously, it managed to hold at levels around $1,700, but now we are seeing a fairly decisive breakout downwards for SanDisk. Unfortunately, such parallel channels do not always work. Realistically speaking, these are just key levels that can, of course, be broken, and when that happens, larger crashes occur, similar to those we have seen in recent days and weeks.
So the situation with SanDisk is a bit worrying. Similarly, many memory stocks look like a typical big euphoric move followed by a dip, a really nasty sell-off, after which you get a " dead cat bounce ," a kind of bounce due to overconfidence. People get inspired again, and then there is an even greater decline into a depression phase and a long bearish period for stocks.
Of course, if you look at the SanDisk trend, you can see that we are still in a " bullish" trend. But I think it's very similar to a specific chart, the so-called " Wall Street cheat sheet ," where you have these huge peaks, and then a sell-off, a rebound on confidence, and a big sell-off after that.
I don't know if that's how it's going to play out , but we have to make this comparison because, to me, it looks like a typical explosive growth followed by a peak and a pullback. So, this raises some concerns about memory. I still believe that AI can perform great as a sector, while the memory market may be struggling or have already peaked.
So I keep it in my sights. I don't think it's time to run away from the world and sell all the shares of memory manufacturers, but technically we see a breakdown in SanDisk, and I expect the $1,250 level to become significant support, since the 200-day moving average is currently passing there. If not, we had this specific parallel channel that the price went beyond.
If we quickly zoom in on the chart, it becomes clear that a realistic target from the bottom would be very low—somewhere around $500, and perhaps even $400 in the long run. I'm not sure this will necessarily happen, so I don't consider it a base case scenario, but if this "bullish" period turns into a " bearish" one, significantly lower target levels for SanDisk, Micron, etc.
are theoretically possible. So we must remember this. It is not at all necessary that we will see new historical highs. We would like that , but this graph certainly does n't look the best. Of course, there was an all-time high, then a lower high, and now we're rolling back down a bit . We'll see where the price goes next, but we need to be cautious given the slowdown in memory price growth.
I believe there is a risk that even if the AI sector performs well , peak prices may already be set in memory stocks. We will take this into account. Of course, this failure is not good, but again, if Micron can hold on relatively well, then this is, in my opinion, the strongest asset from a technical analysis point of view.
So this could be a signal: if we can hold this level and bounce off it, maybe other stocks will go up later. By the way, about other stocks: the situation with most stocks in the memory sector doesn't look very good, does it? We see SK Hynix breaking below the 50-day EMA . Of course, these stocks are very volatile, so I don't want anyone to panic too much.
Of course, one can expect rebounds, and they will recover from such significant drops to some extent, right? You'll likely see some bounce back to 170 on SK Hynix, for example. But from a technical perspective, there was a " bear flag" here, and now you've broken it down. So this is worrying. This is something we need to keep in mind.
We'll have to, I think, keep an eye on earnings and how they develop for stocks like SK Hynix, SanDisk. Of course, Micron has had strong performance, so if the rest of the sector can show success , that could be a positive factor. Of course, Samsung seems to have had some kind of previous earnings report that turned out to be quite negative.
They have sold off and are now below the 50-day exponential moving average, similar to many other memory sector stocks . So I think the market is a little nervous . He's a little scared that maybe the situation will develop the same way it did in the past with memory. I do n't know if that will happen.
And certainly my base case for some time now is that this is a different type of memory loop. The famous last words are that " this time it's different ," but this is entirely possible due to the huge demand and " bottlenecks" that memory has become for building AI. All of this means that we need to start turning key levels again and really try to break the all-time highs for many of these memory stocks before we can become confidently bullish and completely dismiss the risk that the cycle has already peaked or, at least, the stock price has already peaked.
So the other graphs also look, you know, pretty shaky. We have a Seagate, again, support for around $700. It wouldn't be too surprising to drop to these levels after a break below the 50-day moving average, and it would also correspond to a bounce off the 200- day moving average if you dropped there and bounced back.
So, that would probably be my base case scenario to some extent for Seagate at this point. Of course, these stocks are notorious for being hard to catch in time, so it's often better to just buy and wait. And certainly, since the bullish trend has persisted, the more optimistic scenario is that this bullish trend can continue for these companies, despite what we are seeing now in the form of this nasty breakout.
Another company worth looking at is Western Digital Corporation. I haven't studied this name in too much detail, but, again, it looks pretty bad. You are below the 50- day and 200-day moving averages, and it seems like things are even starting to roll down for this name. So, this is worrying. I do n't like that, and it seems to me that you still have some relative power in something like SOX, right?
This is the entire semiconductor industry, including the memory sector. You are being held back by the 50-day moving average. So I wonder if the whole memory cycle might be going downhill a little bit. Maybe the market is right. I mean, it's hard to fight a market that's pricing in these all-time highs in stocks, and now there's a small pullback.
It's hard to go against that. It's hard to say, "Yes, the market is definitely wrong about this." After all, everyone knows that PE ratios, etc. are very low, and these companies are cheap, so to speak, but that doesn't necessarily prevent them from falling. And, of course, I believe that there is a very real risk that this is exactly what will happen.
But in any case, I think there is more weakness in the memory sector than in the rest of the hardware. So, I think this is a key point to take into account. And to emphasize this again : the Cosbi index is declining, approaching the 200- day EMA around 6300. Here again there is some danger on this chart, and this is not the best sign that after the peak there was a pullback, a short rebound due to overconfidence and a further decline.
Sorry guys, I have to call a spade a spade . I currently have an open position in SanDisk. So I don't want these stocks to fall. I would like them to grow no less than the others, but we have to be objective about how the graphs look and what we can expect from this memory cycle. So, I'm still holding, but not sure how I'm going to manage this position in SanDisk.
It is possible that I will shorten or exit the position if we get a rebound in the short term. I'm thinking about it. I weigh the risks. I don't think it's a given that these memory stocks will reach historic highs again, at least in this particular cycle. Perhaps after a bearish period and consolidation.
Of course, I would like it to be that way. Right now, I rate the chances of both options as about 50/50. Perhaps the bullish trend will simply continue, we will reach new all-time highs, and, of course, any pessimism we have now will be remembered with the words: "That was just ridiculous." Of course, they make a lot of money.
Prices were still rising. Growth was high, you know, free cash flow, profits, etc. were coming in. I think it's safe to say that the bullish scenario is still in place, but given the technicals and the look of the charts, combined with the arrival of new supplies, NAND and HBM prices may be stabilizing a bit .
Perhaps NAND is expecting a slight acceleration , so we'll see how prices develop . I think this will be a key point to watch, along with the arrival of new supplies to the market. How will things go with the earnings of memory manufacturers' stocks? Earnings reports are expected in the coming weeks, for example, on October 29th.
So this will be very important to follow, but that's all the news on the memorial actions for now. Unfortunately , these key levels did not hold. The result is subsidence. What will happen to Micron? Of course, as I speak, we are seeing a slight strengthening. So, a drop of only 3%. Will it be possible to play back a little to at least maintain this very important level?
This will be something to watch for today. With that in mind, I hope this review was helpful to those trying to navigate the memory sector. Of course, this is a very difficult sector to play in. I think there's a very solid bullish argument for owning these stocks right now, but I also see a pretty compelling bearish argument, and the market is reeling from a lot of the news we're getting right now.
With that in mind, subscribe, as always, for daily videos on the most important market charts, and see you in the next video. See you later.
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