저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 부채 기반 경제는 금리 상승과 주식 하락으로 침체에 빠지며, 연준은 인플레이션보다 경기 붕괴를 막는 쪽을 택할 것이고 금·은광 주식을 사야 한다는 비관적 전망. 재정·정책: 우크라이나 400억 달러 지원안의 재원이 없고 의회는 증세나 지출 삭감 얘기를 하지 않는다. 적자 확대는 인플레이션 대응과 모순되며 중국·연준 모두 추가 매입 여력이 불투명하다. 채권·금리: 금요일 채권 시장이 급락했으나 주간으로는 금리가 하락했다. 이는 일시적 반등이며 약세장은 계속되고 바닥은 멀었다는 입장. 미국채 금리는 상승 방향으로 본다. 원자재: 유가는 배럴당 108.43달러 마감, 차트가 매우 강하며 곧 큰 상승이 나올 것으로 본다. 유가 상승은 채권에 악재다. 주식: 금리 상승과 밸류에이션(PER) 축소로 주식 랠리는 지속되지 않는다. 미국 주가 하락 추세는 이어진다고 봄. 경기·고용: 주가가 무너지면 부의 효과와 고용 여력이 사라져 경기침체, 나아가 2008년보다 심각한 금융위기 가능성을 언급. 수익성 없는 기업의 일자리 상당수가 사라질 것. 연준: 파월은 볼커처럼 원칙에 따라 긴축하지 않고 경기 침체 방지를 우선하며, 필요하면 높은 인플레이션을 감수할 것이라 평가. 투자 조언: 인플레이션에 대비해야 하며 투자자들은 모멘텀·기술주를 과도하게 샀던 실수를 반복하고 있다. 지금은 금·은광 주식을 매도가 아닌 매수해야 한다고 주장. 출연자 전망: 금·은광 주식은 매수 대상, 주식 시장 전반과 채권은 약세 전망.
다듬은 글
and if you built an entire economy on spending borrowed money how are you going to take away the source of that borrowed money how are you going to deny the ability of consumers to go deeper into debt and assume that we're not going to have a recession when the whole economy is built on debt finance consumption and it's not just the consumer that's spending borrowed money it's the government that's spending borrowed money in fact the government continues to borrow and spend money look there's a new bill that's held up in the senate now by rand paul who's one of the few guys in the senate willing to speak up but there's a 40 billion dollar aid package for the ukraine now where's this 40 billion dollars going to come from is anybody in congress talking about what taxes they're going to raise so that we can come up with 40 billion to give to the ukrainians or hey maybe we should cut back on some other government spending so we can make some funds available because this is a worthy cause we need to give 40 billion dollars to the ukraine so we have to figure out how to save 40 billion someplace else no nobody is talking about where the money is going to come from everybody just wants to spend it well where is it going to come from more debt well we're trying to fight inflation every member of the congress admits that there's too much inflation and we have to fight it you don't fight inflation by running bigger deficits the government needs to cut government spending not come up with more aid packages and expect the federal reserve to create the money because the fed is supposedly fighting inflation too even brand paul is pointing this out where is this money going to come from we already have massive deficits we can't just borrow 40 billion dollars from china they don't want to lend us any more money we can't borrow it from the fed because they're claiming they want to shrink their balance sheet but will they actually do it because who's going to buy these bonds you know the bond market got clobbered on friday but we still had a gain on the week for bonds yields fell on the week there was a little bit of a reprieve there in the bond market i think all of this negative economic news the carnage in the stock market i think all that worked to the benefit of bonds but just temporarily i think this bear market is going to continue it's going to be brutal for the bond market i don't think we're anywhere near a bottom in fact one of the reasons bonds were so weak on friday was because crude oil was so strong it moved up about four dollars a barrel it closed at 108.43 it was down about a dollar on the week but still oil held up a lot better than stocks and the chart looks incredibly strong for oil i think we're on the verge of another big move up in the price of oil which is going to be more bad news for the bond market but as the bond market continues to fall and interest rates continue to rise we're going to inflict more pain on the economy more pain at the government level because the government has so much debt on the individual level on the corporate level and as long as interest rates keep rising stock market rallies won't last we had a rally on friday but the underlying fundamentals that are causing stocks to drop rising interest rates and a reduction in multiples a contraction of the price that investors are willing to pay for earnings in the distant future in a new environment of rising interest rates and high inflation that is going to continue and you can't collapse the stock market without the economy going into recession because so much of the economy was built on the foundation of not only the wealth effect of the stock market but the employment effect the fact that so many money losing companies were able to hire workers even though they're not making any money to pay them the reason they're able to hire workers is because all the cheap money that was sloshing around ended up in their coffers because investors were directing that money to these companies mal investments because they thought they were going to get rich on a stock price going up and so in the process all these non-viable jobs got created well a lot of those jobs are about to be lost they never should have been created in the first place but once they're lost there is no job that's going to immediately take their place given what's going on in the economy and the fed is going to be staring not just at a recession but a depression and the prospect of an even worse financial crisis in 2008 does anybody really think in that environment the fed is really going to be talking tough about fighting inflation when as far as it's concerned and everybody else in washington is concerned it's got a much bigger problem on its hands and it's willing to accept inflation as a trade-off to trying to solve the more important problem of a collapsing economy and fending off another financial crisis and again as i said in my last podcast powell doesn't admire paul volcker because he had the courage to do what's right he just admires him because he had the courage to do what he believed it and i don't think jerome powell has the same set of core beliefs as paul volcker i think he has a different set of beliefs and he's going to act on those set of beliefs and that means not sacrificing the short-term economy not allowing a recession but doing everything in his power to try to mitigate one or postpone one and if that means much higher inflation then that's exactly what powell is prepared to do and as an investor we need to be prepared for that and we need to recognize the fact that so many people now still don't understand this they still are not able to see through this little mountain to the valley on the other side and that valley is full of inflation and just like investors were making a mistake six months ago and they were overpaying for these momentum stocks because they thought the prices would keep going up well they're making the same mistake with respect to gold and silver mining stocks they're selling them where they should be buying them just like they should have been selling these momentum stocks and these tech stocks last year instead they bought them they're making the same mistake because they still can't see in the future they're still focused on a narrow window of what's going on without being able to process what comes next or connect these dots
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