저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 시장은 겉보기보다 약하며, 취약한 기업을 정리하고 Cramer Koenig 19 지수 편입 종목 중심으로 옮겨야 한다는 입장. 시장 상황: 지수는 상승세를 보였으나 하부에는 약세 종목이 많고 투자자들이 현실을 외면하고 있다고 진단. 버핏 주주총회 해석: 버핏은 평소와 달리 낙관하지 않았고, 항공주 지분을 대거 매도해 코로나 이후 항공 업황이 오래 부진할 것으로 본 것으로 해석. 포트폴리오 전략: 자신이 운용하는 신탁에서 지수 밖 종목을 매도하고 현금 비중을 20% 수준으로 높였으며, 지수 내 우량주 매수를 진행. 타이슨푸드 보유는 실수로 언급. 인덱스 투자 논쟁: 베키의 질문(인덱스 투자의 황혼기인가)에 대해 S&P500에 독성 종목이 많아 팬데믹 이후 취약할 수 있다고 주장. 버핏도 같은 입장으로 해석. 기업 리스크: 올해 1분기 기준 S&P500 편입 기업 114곳이 가이던스를 중단, 7곳이 자사주 매입 중단, 31곳이 배당 삭감 또는 폐지. 실업자 3천만 명, 대공황 이후 최악의 경기침체 우려 제기. 리스크: 약한 기업의 배당·실적 훼손 가능성, 시장 반등에 대한 과신 경계.
다듬은 글
sure we know it this market behaves better than it should yes and held up with some real spots of strength to date a lovely painting 26 points as to be advancing point for 2% NASA jumped in one point to 3% but the truth is there's a lot of rot underneath and I think many investors are in denial but how bad things can be for some of the weaker players out there the ones actually involved with the economy the ones that don't have bulletproof balance sheets consider it this weekend Warren Buffett presided over a somber annual meetings that have the usual festival of investing we had an older gentleman giving a simple eight lessons followed by a remarkable question-and-answer session but seem as he's on but typically when the market gets hammered Buffett's the first guy to tell you to stick with it but this time he wasn't bullish by any stretch of the imagination Oh boom lately I think I told you was time to start doing some celery and I still think that's the right call without a big bounce to the bottom we were selling all day today for my child will trust after selling pretty heavily at the end of last week where I get the 20% cash that there yet got national airs plus calm conference call this Thursday at 11:30 and I shouldn't want to have to defend a bunch of losers like Tyson Foods which we bought for the trust when the trail of a China ended because the Chinese had a desperate pork shortage I always say it's better to be lucky than good and we were not lucky as the coronavirus took the world by storm Tyson stock plummeted Buffett somewhat unwittingly quoted the late great John Maynard Keynes saying when the facts change you have to change your mind and pointed the facts change but we're certainly not selling everything for the trust doing some buy or some things because as you saw today there are plenty of companies whose stocks are doing quite well here remember last week we came up with our Cramer kovat 19 index which had more than 11 stocks 11 trillion dollars in market cap versus say around 25 trillion for the entire market we are selling the stocks outside this index so when everything gets hit we can put the money into the stocks in this index the differences between what's working the Creighton Markovic 19 and what's not working are incredibly stark and you have to be blind not to notice and by the way this is not something it's ephemeral okay this is not this may be something secular and important to notice I bring it up because Becky asked Warren whether there are we're in the twilight of index investing here because so many people have embraced it already maybe too many people Buffett seem to interpret that question as a challenge to his dictum that act of money managers generally can't consistent beat the averages especially we need to count for their fees I've got a lot of truth to that criticism it's incredibly hard to beat the sp500 and that's also in part because the index is more actively managed than it seems they regularly change things up tracking losers adding winners but that really wasn't the thrust of what Becky was asking she wanted to know if index fund investing may not hold up all that well here because the index has tons of bad stocks in it that may not survive a pandemic you could argue that these bad stocks make comeback but I think Buffett would agree that many of them are in big trouble that's why he dumped his huge stakes in the four big airlines he's got way from the bounce-back he knows they're losers in a new environment where nobody's flying and that may not change anytime soon to me that was an affirmation that this works that this is where you have to go buffett has a long term horizon some who say to him he's perfectly willing to lose money in the short term if he please there's the long term opportunity but he didn't do that with the airlines that's quite telling he knows that the facts have changed and he bailed on the whole group because he knows these stocks are toxic again major part of the S&P 500 toxic I feel the same way about whole swaths of the S&P 500 which is why Becky's question really resonated with me look look at this way so far this year a hundred and fourteen copies in the index of suspending guidance seven-iron suspend their buybacks and 31 have either cut or eliminated their debits those are cold hard facts people that's just the first quarter normally a couple of quarters months into this bathroom with 30 million people unemployed and maybe the worst recession since the Great Depression many people own stocks for their dividends what happens when those diffidence get tossed in the wood chipp you
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