저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
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결론: 연준의 전방위 시장 지원은 불가피했지만 '좀비 기업' 확산과 코로나 이후 경제 재편의 비대칭 리스크를 경계해야 한다는 주장. 연준 정책 평가: 연준이 회사채 시장까지 개입하며 시장을 빠르게 정상화했지만, 대출 받아서는 안 될 기업까지 자금을 조달하게 만들어 좀비 기업 우려가 있다고 지적. 2008년 위기는 은행·소비자의 잘못된 행동이 원인이었던 반면, 이번은 팬데믹과 경제 셧다운이 원인이라 구조가 다르다고 설명. 정책 설계: 정부 대응은 재무부와 연준 중 어디가 맡을지, 기업 행동에 어떤 조건을 둘지가 쟁점. 워런 버핏의 보수적 신중론(최악 시나리오 대비, 대차대조표 강도 강조)을 인용. 경기 재개 시나리오: 전 세계 경제의 약 90%가 재개되고 약 10%는 회복되지 않을 것으로 봄. 투자자는 어떤 10%가 돌아오지 않을지 파악해야 한다고 강조. 항공사 등 특정 업종은 완전 정상화가 어렵다고 언급. 낙관 시나리오: 백신이나 집단면역이 최선이며, 그 전이라도 바이러스와 공존 가능(감염재생산지수 낮음), 소비자 행동 회복, 기업의 인력 재조정 없이 재가동이라는 세 조건이 확인되면 빠른 회복 가능성. 다만 이는 기본 시나리오가 아닌 'whitetail(희박한 가능성)'로 제시. 리스크: 좀비 기업 누적, 업종별 영구적 수요 손실, 연준 개입의 도덕적 해이 및 부작용의 시간 지연 발현. 출연자 전망: 종목·지수에 대한 구체적 방향이나 가격 전망은 언급 없음. 전반적으로 경기 회복의 불확실성을 강조하는 신중한 톤.
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but I know that you were watching to see what he had to say about the markets what did you think about his assertion about what the feds been doing right now what the potential consequences are you know Becky he put perfectly this debate and it's not an either/or but is a question of balance and it's a question for the marketplace would you rather have the blanket support of the Fed as we did this time around or would you rather have Warren Buffett's rescue financing as we did in 2008 people will argue either side of this he pointed out that on the one hand you get the Fed normalizing markets quickly but on the other hand you get people who shouldn't be borrowing raising money and that's the issue for capitalism you know what's better my own sense is the Fed went too far in going to the high-yield market but I understand why they did it and time will tell what the consequence is all you know Muhammad this time is a little different than 2008 back then it was some bad actions and bad behaviors that led to the financial crisis it was activity at the banks and other places consumers kind of jumping in on all these things warrants at this times different as we all know it this was nobody's fault the none of these companies did anything wrong they just got slapped first by the pandemic and then by the shutdown of the economy saying we're not going to let people go out so in a situation like that should the government be more responsive like this because again we're not talking about moral risk we're not talking about moral hazard or anything that anybody did wrong it's a pandemic and it's a government response to that pandemic to just shut the economy down so first it should be which part of government should it be the fed with it also didn't be the Treasury second what rules should govern this should there be certain terms in terms of behaviors of what you expect these companies to do and and finally and I think Warren Buffett put it really clearly you know you you and and Andrew and Joe have pointed out he was more cautious it was a very sobering tone because he kept on saying we don't know what ahead he kept on talking about whole scenarios of possibilities not a baseline which is rated from from 2008 9 he talked about tail risk on and on again he talked about balance sheet strength this notion of we don't know what's ahead and he warned us not all the problems emerge on the first day so you know there's also an issue of how how quickly should you step in with this blanket support from the Fed look if you were talking about the Treasury and there were principle governing bailouts I would be with you but but the Fed opened up the high-yield market for every for almost everybody and that raises the specter of zombie companies and we've got to be careful about this because that eats away at what makes America special and that's the reason why we don't ever bet against America because of its dynamism mahmud Buffett also said that there are scenarios worst-case scenarios that he can imagine that he didn't want to talk about because he didn't want to make it more likely to happen worst-case scenarios and that's what he wants to make sure that that Berkshire Hathaway is prepared for and and and has this fortress defense about when you start thinking about some of those things not that they're likely but what would be a potential worst-case scenario in terms of how the economy reacts so he gave us examples I think Airlines on example where he said you know what behavior has changed this is a completely different sector coming out of the crisis it will not be at full capacity he talked about all those planes he also spoke about some some of his companies having a permanent loss in sales he gave the example of Easter forces candy and he spoke about other companies that were weak and are not coming back and that's within his empire so this notion is coming out and I think it's a right notion that when we reset which we will we will we set differently the economists called it the 90 percent global economy there's going to be 10 percent of the global economy in their view that's going to be missing and what investors have to figure out is which 10 percent is not coming back hmm what's the best-case scenario I mean if if you start to see States open up again if you start to see countries kind of open up again if the virus dies down in the summer and maybe doesn't come back in the fall then what if we are dealing with the best-case scenario or if there's some miracle vaccination or miracle treatment that comes up between now and the next fall what what then do you think how does it play out so the very best scenario is a vaccine or community immunity now that would allow us to bounce back and forget this nightmare relatively quickly not completely but forget most of it the the more realistic best scenario is that we learn from the lifting of the lockdowns three things one is we can live with the virus meaning the r-nought or the weight of spread of the infection is very low and we can cope with those who fall ill - we learn that consumer behavior hasn't been damaged in a fundamental way people will go back and we engage and three we learn that companies are willing to go back and are not resizing what you keep on hearing over and over again with my hope is as we go through this lockdown and we lift it we see all three things it is a whitetail it's just not the baseline it is a whitetail but we should monitor it very quickly and hope that it materializes you
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