저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 재정적자가 GDP 대비 7.5%로 과도해 국채 수급 불균형과 금리 상승 위험이 크다. 정치권이 GDP 3% 목표에 합의해야 하며, 채권시장이 정책의 제약 요인이다. AI 응용은 과소평가됐지만 주식 밸류에이션과 금리 상승이 큰 위험이다. 분산투자가 중요하며 금 등 대체화폐가 유효한 헤지라고 본다.
다듬은 글
we have another big guest to bring you right now Bridgewater founder Ray doio uh he's got a new book I don't know if it's a book or really an essay or a um a Trea really um and it's called how countries go broke principles for navigating the big debt cycle uh and it is going to be available online soon it's it's AV it's available now yeah I'm put I'm putting it out um part by part it's got four parts and then in about two weeks it'll be all out and it's free on a PDF uh because people don't know the mechanics and government officials don't know the mechanics and so this went back for 35 countries what is the mechanics what is too much debt how does it work how does it end so I wanted to convey that because it's the most important political issue that's going to be in let's break it down because it is very true we are going to have taxes on the table this year in the United States and we are going to have deficits on the table and they're interconnected how the deficits get dealt with is the fundamental question you've been studying this stuff for a very very long time yes and it's not just an American issue it's a Chinese issue it's a European issue it's a Japanese issue there is a supply demand issue and there's mechanics of that I hope we can touch on those mechanics but there is a path forward and whether you take that path forward or not is going to be critical for theet but let's talk about it and what is that path and you're right I I've been arguing I don't know if you agree that the bond market more than anything else is going to be the governor on all of if there is a governor on the politics of our moment right now given that you have a a a red uh you know congress senate and the White House the the only Governor if you will politically in a weird way may be the bond market of of course because interest rates the government interest rate is the backbone of all markets right stock market bond market all borrowing all lending everything right so in answer to your question of what is the solution or what what needs to be done and it's almost a black and white situation is think of the number 3% mhm 3% 3% of GDP yes we have a projected deficit of 7 and a half% of GDP MH that means all those bonds have to be sold and then because of the supply demand imbalance when you sell bonds when I calculate who are the buyers of the bonds there will not be enough buyers right and then what could be worse in this Dynamic is those who own bonds also sell the bonds and when that happens there's a tremendous Supply demand and then we have have problems we can get into what it looks like it's happened many times before so we have to stabilize that and we can do it that's what I call the 3% solution okay 3% solution is that you can cut it down from 7 and a half% to 3% now what people don't realize is there are three ways of doing that they understand that there are taxes y there is spending okay but what happens is like in 1991 to 1997 MH there was a comparable decrease in the budget deficit because if you do it when the economy is good you will get a lower interest rate and the lower interest rate means less money on less cost of the debt because we have so much debt that the interest cost on the debt is more important than spending in taxes and so you can get there and and if you get there you'll get a bond market rally how do you get there because there's going to be a big question come this summer about whether you extend the tax cuts as they are whether you make them even lower um does that help on the growth side will you ever make it up on the other side how do the tariffs relate to all of this you know the biggest problem I think is everybody has their particular way okay so I think it's it's first of all all the members of Congress all the President should basically say 3% of GDP now because they have all their particular ways then it's how do you get there okay um first if you make the pledge second if you can't agree you would start up you'd say I'll do everything proportionately by way of example if you did everything as your backup then you work from there if you can deliver um any form so yes if you can deliver Cost Cuts but you have to you have to pledge to deliver those Cost Cuts you have now there's smart ways in there Stupid Ways okay of doing that but the and everybody will argue over that but you must achieve the three so I think the 3% pledge 3% we will do 3% if we can't even agree on how we do it we do it proportionately but let's work together on trying to do it because our problem isn't the deficit our problem is the politics the fragmented politics let me ask you a separate question which is and and we've talked about it a multiple times during the last three hours uh Becky raised it at the very very beginning of the show uh we were discussing a Wall Street Journal article that was talking about PE ratios at the beginning of um effectively a presidential Campa not a campaign but a term and just how high they are now histo at historic highs even relative to where they were before Reagan before before everybody if we are here together a year or two from now do you look and say these markets these Equity markets are going to be higher than they are today they're going to be lower than they are do you look at this this is a great investing environment given the backdrop of deregulation all the things that the president is saying he plans to do where you say wow we've gone pretty far already uh we have gone pretty far already and particularly in certain sectors and so on but the biggest influence is going to be what I'm talking about because if you have those multiples and you have a rise in interest rates right okay you will have a pop MH so as we focus on that deficit question but yes of course it's fragment I think that there um it's of course led by the sectors uh that are great sectors the the disruptors the the AI and so on I don't think it's been carried uh down to the um applications of AI in other words the uses of AI right so if you're watching as I'm watching around the world and by the way it's very interesting what's going on in China with AI in terms of application other places the applications of AI are under discounted I think and then of course what is the term what is the multiple the multiple is an extension of the interest rate but that means you would be long this market right now no I I have to be Diversified I don't want any particular right now I don't want to be overextended on an alpha and also I would say one qu thing is I don't think we think enough about what's alternative money we only think everybody's okay so when you think about what give you some alternative to what's alternative money right now okay an Al gold is an alternative money right yeah and it's a very effective diversifier so have we're dealing with some Bitcoin debt is money right in other words when you're owning debt you're owning a promise to get money right and when you own money essentially you're holding it in debt you've help and I think that that is our biggest risk our biggest risk yes our biggest risk the the money part of the risk there are great things that are going on in Innovation and change but people don't pay enough attention to the interest rate the PE but also the the cost of it people have a tendency to think a great company is a great investment right without looking at the price
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