저자: 미상 · 외국인
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찰리 멍거의 데일리저널이 2022년 1분기 알리바바 보유분을 약 60,000주에서 30만 주로 절반 줄인 것으로 보고, 이는 중국 규제 리스크와 투자 실패에 따른 신뢰 하락을 시사한다고 분석한다. 데일리저널은 2021년 1분기부터 알리바바를 매수했고, 연말 기준 602,000주를 보유했으나 주가 하락으로 평가손실이 컸다. 2022년 3월 말 공시 기준 보유량은 30만 주로 줄었으며, 멍거는 3월 28일 회장직에서 물러났지만 이사직과 증권 포트폴리오 관여는 유지한다. 영상은 절반 매도가 실제 시장에서 가능했는지 의문을 제기하며, 뉴욕과 홍콩 거래소 간 이동 주장도 논리적으로 맞지 않다고 본다. 알리바바는 중국 정부의 규제 강화로 벌금 28억 달러를 냈고, 자금 일부가 공동번영기금에 예치되며, 알고리즘 규제로 광고 수익이 제약될 수 있다. 밸류에이션 측면에서 알리바바는 서구 기업 대비 저평가 상태지만, 정치 리스크 때문에 낮은 PS와 PE 등 전통 지표는 의미가 약하다고 본다. 중국 경제는 코로나 재확산과 부동산 위기 여파로 수십 년 만의 저성장이 예상되며, 알리바바는 3분기 실적 전망을 하회해 투자자 실망을 키웠다. 영상은 자자 연구자가 멍거의 매도가 알리바바 추가 상승 여력이 낮다는 판단을 보여준다고 결론짓는다.
다듬은 글
daily journal corporation a newspaper and a software company whose stock portfolio is managed by charlie manga has decreased its holding in chinese internet behemoth alibaba group holding limited by about half hey everyone welcome back to our channel in this video we'll be talking about why charlie manga sold 50 of alibaba's stock and before we start make sure to hit the subscribe button and turn on the notifications bell done let's get started charlie manga became one of alibaba's most famous bulls in 2021 at the end of 2021 his daily journal corporation possessed 600 000 adrs in a chinese-based company but according to the most recent filing that number has been cut in half with only 300 000 shares remaining at the end of march while charlie munger used traditional valuation metrics and looked at alibaba's market potential to rationalize ownership beijing's direct and indirect meddling in the company's activities prevented the stock from growing and pushed significant investors to cut their losses alibaba's shares have dropped by 30 percent since my piece alibaba charlie munger is wrong again was published in late november and there's little evidence that the company will recover anytime soon despite the fact that daily journal still owns a large stake in alibaba the decision to sell half of its stock could be interpreted as a loss of faith in the company's ability to perform well in the current environment as it would make no sense to sell shares when they trade at a significant discount to their western counterparts as a result the purpose of this essay is to examine why things didn't go so well for charlie munger and the daily journal as well as whether there is any value left in alibaba at the current price without rehashing the arguments i've made in the previous articles about the company it all began more than a year ago when charlie munger's daily journal said that in the first quarter of 2021 it will open a position in alibaba the number of shares owned increased in subsequent quarters and at the end of december daily journal had 602 000 alibaba shares during that time the stock has depreciated and if it was trading at 240 dollars per share at the start of 2021 it was trading at 120 per share by the end of the year resulting in a significant unrealized loss for daily journals portfolio in the first quarter of 2022 everything has changed according to a recent daily journal filing it only had 300 000 alibaba shares in its portfolio at the end of march implying that it had lost half of its holding in the first three months of this year when charlie munger stepped down as chairman of the daily journal on march 28th suspicions began to circulate that he wasn't the one who made the decision manga served as chairman of the daily journal for many years in addition to serving as vice chairman of warren buffett's berkshire hathaway incorporated according to a regulatory filing at the time the 98 year old billionaire would stand down from that job in march but would retain a board membership and continue to pay particular attention to areas with which he has been involved in the past including the company's securities portfolio he also stated that he will donate one million dollars in business stock to establish an equity incentive plan the daily journal is well known for its collection of publications as well as its software sales to customers such as justice agencies and courts in addition to its running businesses the company owns a stock portfolio comparable to berkshire hathaway's practice of investing while holding businesses at the end of march its stock portfolio included five publicly reported interests including the alibaba holding that it began revealing a year earlier mungus aidee declined to comment on the daily journals shareholding in alibaba alibaba's american depository receipts fell about 50 in 2021 and are now down roughly 14 this year however it appears highly implausible that daily journal sold 302 000 of its 602 000 shares in the final days of march as this would have pushed the price much lower and would have been noted by the market furthermore some sources claimed that the daily journal sold half of its interest in the new york stock exchange and then repurchased it on the hong kong stock exchange it also doesn't make much sense to begin with alibaba's shares on the hong kong exchange are likewise represented as a variable interest entity which does not grant direct ownership of the company and it makes no sense to transfer only half of the position to the other exchange while leaving the other one alone so far it's all supposition but the fact remains that daily journal lost money on alibaba during 2021 and it no longer owns half of the shares it did at the end of the year charlie munger has a track record of investing in undervalued companies and reaping substantial profits over time the majority of the enterprises in which charlie manga invested were american whether through daily journal or berkshire hathaway there were just a few foreign investments such as byd that gave good returns over time charlie munger has made his money at home apart from that one of the most compelling reasons to invest in alibaba was the company's shares trading at a discount to its western counterparts in actualty he is entirely correct alibaba is currently trading at barely two times forward sales but western iot behemoths like amazon and apple are trading a 3x and 7x forward sales respectively alibaba on the other hand operates in a more hostile environment which explains its smaller premium and is one of the key reasons why it will likely continue to trade at a discount in the future don't forget that daily journal bought its first alibaba stock after beijing's crackdown had already begun while it made sense to buy the business's stock only on the basis of its fundamentals a year ago given that the price had depreciated by more than 20 from its highs the environment in which the company had operated over the previous years had already altered dramatically the issue was that alibaba had grown too powerful and political in china and in authoritarian and totalitarian governments such as china's any subject that grows too powerful historically is neutralized as a result it's impossible to ignore politics when investing in companies operating in nations with weak legal systems where the ruling party can interpret laws as it sees fit to achieve its political objectives daily journal lost a lot of money because of that one mistake furthermore while beijing's attack on alibaba began more than a year ago it is still ongoing alibaba is now compelled to pay more in taxes after paying a record fine of 2.8 billion dollars to the government and 20 of its liquidity will be deposited in beijing's common prosperity fund furthermore the recently enacted algorithmic restriction may prohibit alibaba from making big profits from the digital advertising sector whilst beijing is explicitly attempting to undermine alibaba's supremacy in the cloud and digital payment companies with all of this in mind it becomes far more difficult for even experienced investors like charlie munger to predict which way the firm will go and how much money it will create because the answers to those questions are only known in beijing nothing has changed since then which is why it's difficult to assign any value to alibaba at this time regardless of how many times bullish investors claim that alibaba is a bargain at its current pricing based on the pe ps and other traditional valuation metrics the reality is that those metrics are meaningless at this point alibaba was already cheap when it was traded at 250 dollars per share 200 per share 150 per share and especially now at 100 per share according to several multiples however this did not prevent the stock from further falling that's why given the political risk i'm not excited about the company's newest intention to spend 25 billion dollars on share buybacks it could have been feasible to justify purchasing alibaba if it were based in the united states for example due to the radically different power dynamics that exist there for years there has been talks of dissolving the big tech monopoly yet conglomerates like apple meta alphabet and others have continued to grow and thrive even the european union has done a better job of regulating american big tech than the us government that's why it was difficult for even charlie munger to predict how far beijing would go in its crusade to regulate the country's biggest tech behemoth given that the majority of his portfolio was made up of american companies that operated in a completely transparent environment and were taking aggressive actions against the private sector was difficult in china things are very different worse the revival of kobit 19 in china combined with the lingering effects of the property crisis triggered by evergrand's bankruptcy last year will have a direct negative impact on china's economy officials in china have already predicted the slowest economic growth in decades and alibaba has already disappointed investors by missing revenue and gaff ebs projections for the third quarter which it announced in late february alibaba now has even fewer opportunities to promote growth and drastically improve the state of its business as a result of these new developments add in china's forthcoming elections and it's clear that beijing isn't going to back down anytime soon charlie munger is an investment legend without a doubt we're sure a lot of us learned how to invest by reading for charlie's almanac in our spare time and most of us will never have the same track record as charlie manga in our lifetime even the finest though may make mistakes charlie munger and daily journal hinted that the chinese juggernaut is not that appealing to purchase even at the current price by reducing half of their investment in alibaba after just holding it for slightly more than a year did you find this video informative or helpful let us know in the comment section below make sure to subscribe so you don't miss out on my future videos don't forget to like and share
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