저자: DanIves · 외국인
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애플은 중국 부진에도 AI 기대와 현금흐름 성장(FCF 12~15%)을 근거로 바닥권으로 보며, 파란티어(Palantir)를 차세대 소프트웨어 강자로 긍정 평가. 엔비디아는 AI 인프라 buildout 초기로 Stargate 등 수혜 기대. 마이크론·반도체주 약세는 SK하이닉스 실적 가이던스(스마트폰 수요 둔화) 영향으로 언급. 은(silver)과 칩 간 상관관계 이탈을 관찰 중이며 엔비디아 조정 또는 은 반등 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
guarding the hyperscalers we should have a big week next week Apple the Bears have owned this story in my opinion they will show the Skeptics a little lacking in China they really do in general exceed numbers Apple seems to be one that this type of signals the bottom we would expect to see for the Year let us go to there Dan spend a little extra time on Apple year-to date the stock is down roughly 10% dot dot dot let's start here and before Dan can answer please I will explain why I decided to run the common sense Style on most major apertures and make it above x a little which is rather odd for that name in this context tell us about the issues particularly in relation to phone sales in China look and let's work through some figures too look in terms of what we have seen with the headlines China has been soft in the past few quarters regarding the AI release Apple intelligence however we think that's actually not going to be unveiled until April bite Dance 10cent by most likely will be the partner is it a little softer in China it is 2 to 3% softer so just surround it with numbers Street had projected 225 million units for the year right now we count roughly 230 million 5 million forward the ideal count was 240 million perhaps such is off the menu Paul also this seems to be as excessive selloff as I have observed on Apple over several years pthos sexu it relevant talk to us about paler Dan when one considers these large tech stocks perhaps few people are familiar with that moniker and I know you people have been quite outstanding but you have been hostile on this name the stocks rise over a trailing 12 months is 370% give us your call on paler I think it will be the next Salesforce or Oracle regarding the AI Revolution this is most likely the best Pure Play software available on the market like envid on chips this is how I see paler software side and that is why look many have detested this they dislike this as a SC citizen living in Florida at 80 right they load this as a teen starting the year 1213 hence and I think this could finally be a stock that finally when you consider who might be the next Oracle salesperson I mean this is pounds here Dan go down the apple income statement all right I have singled digigit income growth and the Gloom group hangs on it considering the multiple 2030 whatever the multiple is the magic occurs though down the income statement to produce cash is any component of that system given Paul's inquiry on China or honestly additional six concerns like you know this is what Silo season 3 is going to be like but with any Apple concern is the cash generating machine malfunctioning during the next 2 to 3 years free cash flow Will Rise by 12 to 15% what then is the stopping mechanism towards the end of the month what happens at 422 p.m.
when we go OMG China was light but cash flows up how much then I believe cash flow has probably beats 3 to 5% and free cash flow for the year will be up 12 to 15% which is why I feel this represents the bottom Apple seems to me to be a stock okay therefore good morning Mr Buffet Mr Buffet like listening while Dan IES is on are you advising berkshire's Warren Buffett on additional Apple purchases oh given what I see I believe it to be a table Bounder you say apple is light in the quarter still they will reveal an apple intelligent partner in a few months and then when they access artificial intelligence you will eventually have 25% of the world's population using Apple products integration at 10.1% my perspective is so simple many have missed Apple's last 2 and A2 trillion in markup this is a new book you don't sell Apple but your knowledge or expectation that soft bank will retain its current or mistaken arm will connect that back continues to be the Mantra here they focus on the Bears coming out own the narrative scare White Knuckles then cook and Cupertino come through and you're let's just consider Pharma investment and Drug development when you consider some of the things artificial intelligence will be able to enable drugs develop over 10 to 20 years starting at the base level 95% of those efforts fail we conduct animal lab tests still approvals wait a long period not just in terms of creating amazing treatments faster and sooner but also in terms of developing drugs we cannot even do today I.E cancer drugs especially on genome sequence AI can shorten all those develop velopment time frames therefore I believe there will be enormous massive return in many many disruptive spheres among the fields I most find fascinating is medicine and usually publish it elsewhere but the field most interests me is medicine hundreds of times the history of treatment is disruptive I listen very hard to contemporary AI specificity Tony looking at your science and technology funds percentage ownership Holdings not surprising in video clearly is your biggest holding at least as the figures I now have which might be somewhat outdated you know I do find Apple underweight at least in terms of a mirror of its market capitalization compared to some of the others why is this so indeed I believe over time that given my great optimism for the development of this artificial intelligence infrastructure you essentially have to create the infrastructure before developing the apps on it you know Apple still runs a fantastic business you know I doubt you could count them out in any sense their ecology remains rather robust I like both firms long term but as you know my framework is always like shifting you know positions vaita continues to be the platform that everyone kind of is building on we are in the early stages of AI infrastructure buildout and you look at their new products that are simply enhancing the performance by Leaps and Bounds and so on that's what excites me and because Nvidia is a full stack company I believe the Stargate announcement will show a lot of infrastructure still being built on Nvidia Vita called me to say that they're doing a watch for you norda syn and I wrote you know to me the multi-year here excites me for this all right Lauren you're staring at some movers Micron we mentioned already today what is going on I am therefore repetitious not sure not sure not sure by Micron was Dr Barton's advice perhaps you would like to purchase it at its decline at4 it's down nearly 5% so Nvidia you can see broadcom all the chip manufacturers are much lower here's the justification out of South Korea SK hinx a client of Nvidia a partner declared record profits for the last quarter nevertheless their Outlook was poor and they particularly mentioned a Slowdown in smartphone sales which has chilled that industry perfect and a warning from South Korean chipmaker HX sending its customer Nvidia as well as many other us chipmakers they are lower on the day as you can see Nvidia off only slightly rcom dropped more than 1% Micron down 4% although SK hinx reported a record profit for the fourth quarter these actions follow from warnings of more rapid demand decreases in commodity memory chips using SK hyx and such I know you have a chart looking at Nvidia You observe its relationship with silver kg hit me with it real quick since we will be actively monitoring the chips today indeed and for the next many days and weeks here we should be closely observing them still you know over the past year there has been a quite close correlation this is a six-month chart but over the past year of silver and chips in general especially considering Nvidia this is kind of the growth narrative clearly these gpus make use of silver really extensively among all the headlines we have seen with possibly 500 billion from the Stargate deal along with some conjecture there were some news stories that Saudi Arabia might be investing up to 600 billion dollars here in the United States This truly intrigues me here on top of that that's a growth story that calls for a lot of materials and infrastructure but what you kind of notice none of the associated Commodities are really grabbing a bit off of any of this news actually you are observing a quite good Divergence I will thus be simply observing this correlation here to see whether it returns an influence in the line here and is it going to be silver type of catching up to what Nvidia has done over the past few trading sessions alternatively do we observe an Nvidia breakdown typically year and a half from now what we have seen in the past or previous year is silver leads the chips and leads Nvidia right now that might not be the situation perhaps there's a disconnection here but lately I have been observing a lot of this and last year it was rather almost perfect right now among the more notable ones I have witnessed over years here is that great discrepancy all right quite fascinating all right therefore maybe Nvidia needs to close that margin or we see a major rally in silver but I kind of feel like we know it's driving the bus generally thus we will observe possibly close Association
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