저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아는 막대한 설비투자 대비 수익 창출 여부가 불확실하며, 이는 과거 시스코 사례처럼 밸류에이션 하락 위험을 내포한다. 현재 AI 투자는 상당 부분 PoC·데모 수준이라 실질 수익 증명은 아직 부족하다. 발언자는 엔비디아 단기 매매로 139 콜 대각 스프레드 전략을 제시하며 144 행사가 근처 상승을 기대한다.
다듬은 글
larger idea Jason is that in capitalism when you ere earn for enough of a period competitors decide to try to compete away your earnings we have discussed this a lot when there is no Monopoly your time usually seems to be limited and decreases in the case of a monopo for instance take Google you can over earn for decades and someone trying to replace you takes quite a very long time that is only beginning to show up in things like uncertainty and other services erasing the Google Monopoly all of these extra revenues are eventually competed away though at some point regarding Nvidia what you are currently observing is their over earn in a really huge scale the real question then is who will volunteer to attempt to compete away from profits according to the old Bezos quotation your margin presents my opportunity and I think we're starting to see and you mentioned grock who had a really viral moment I guess this week but you're starting to see the emergence of a more deep knowledge of what this Market really means and the economics of it are simply getting recognized to now more and more people who will therefore compete away the inference Market who will compete away the training Market there are too many options here how can you feel safe I fear you are missing the mons Santa I want to link it keeping friberg's point in mind all of this expenditure must So eventually turn a profit right otherwise you will appear quite stupid for having spent 20 and 30 and $40 billion so Nick if you simply return to the Nvidia Revenue slide I can try to frame this at least the way I think about it therefore if you consider what you are talking about that is who is going to spend 22 billion $100 million look who is going to do it well Jason you stated it all of this is related to technology since they have idle balance sheet money but their investors will want a rate of return on that when you spend $22 billion therefore consider what an acceptable rate of return is call it 30 40 50% then factor in and that represents profit then you consider all the other things that must support that $22 billion of expenditure must yield most likely $45 billion of it and so Jason the question to your point and friberg's point The $64,000 Question is who in this last quarter is going to make 45 billion on that 22 billion of spend once more what I would advise you to be truly honest about is that what you are seeing is more about large corporations pushing people around with their balance sheet and able to visit Nvidia and declare I will provide committed pre- purchases over the next 3 or four quarters and less about here is a product I'm shipping that really generates income for which I absolutely require far more computational resources this is not the latter run as proofs of concept and demos most of the apps we are seeing in AI today are toy apps housed in a sandbox that is not production code we rebuilt the whole Boeing autopilot system and today it runs with Bots and agents using all of this training that is not the reality here thus this is a quite relevant issue the demand is evident today these are the big folks with enormous amounts of money and since Nvidia can now project demand for the next two or three quarters they are quite clever to seize it we still need to observe the next great event in my opinion looking back also reveals what the past has shown us the large players hardly create the innovative ideas that generate enormous profits these are the new people that come up with something quite genuine and fresh as they have to be somewhat more diligent and lack a lot of money indeed great art results from restraint all right as yet we have not seen that for NVIDIA I so believe the revenue scale will remain similar for like 2 or 3 years most likely what is the terminal value though is the true concern and Zach exhibited in that Cisco slide exactly this as well people finally understood that the application layer other areas of the stack would be receiving the value and less and less in multiple and credit was granted Cisco as more and more money was accured at the application Level of the internet and that is nothing against Cisco since their income kept growing correct they did an amazing job too but the valuation suffered 153 look at the chart it shows 15313 background 130 it's come down somewhat and is now beginning to solidify here around $137 now this morning it's almost trading $139 up a whole per sent what thus should we investigate at aidia this company is still one whose Aid driven expansion is unparalleled among others since nobody seems to be able to close the gap it's almost as if monopolies murmurs permeate all around but client needs are changing and Regulatory issues are just around the bend what will the future hold idia is in what inning idia has stalled here due to all the questions around it like we discuss with Tesla what is the next thing something related to a video we are not even aware of yet right we know Blackwell has a chip behind her we so want to trade this in really straightforward manner we going to buy the 139 call kind of at the money call give ourselves some time go out to February 14th buy the long call diagonal and sell the January 24th 144 call this week exactly buy the at the money around 1 month out sell look at the predicted move which for this week is roughly $4.50 $430 to be exact and sell that short call whenever the equities trade make that your long call diagonal that's our current Nvidia look you currently have roughly 37 long Deltas every day it is gathering Theta that figure will increase and you are aiming for a movement upward near the 144 strike now if it gets up there keep in mind that we record $530 in expenses right now trading for roughly $52 you should exercise some caution as that exceeds the width of the strike should it get up toward that short strike you either want to close the trade or change your strikes make sure you so grasp call diagonal the risk hence is the salary scale whatever the debit is you run Danger on the trade you are so seeking a movement from where it is today towards the 144 strike in Nvidia as indicated roughly 37 Deltas every trade all right today our trades are those ones ahead of their earnings and with their exaggerated implied volatility Netflix's short iron Condor is but one with a little ad itude yielding a small bit lengthy Delta and subsequently a long call diagonal in Nvidia our show today is the one that relates just to daily Trader I'm Kevin Hicks we shall see you tomorrow with another daily Trader episode although we have gone very far already especially in some sectors and so on the most impact will be what I am talking about since right if you have those multiples and interest rates rise there all right you are going to pop thus while we concentrate on the deficit question indeed it is fragment of course it is driven by the industries that are outstanding the disruptors the artificial intelligence and so on I doubt it has been brought down to the applications of artificial intelligence stated differently the applications for artificial intelligence therefore if you are observing from around the globe and find it really fascinating what is happening in China with artificial intelligence in terms of applications other countries AI uses are underestimated I believe and subsequently of course what is the multiple the multiple expands on the interest rate
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