저자: RealEstateNinja · 외국인
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결론: 버핏과 다이먼의 은행주 매도를 근거로 은행 위기와 대형 크래시가 임박했다는 주장. 버핏의 은행주 대규모 매도: 버크셔해서웨이가 2023년 상반기 웰스파고, 골드만삭스, PNC, US뱅크 등 은행주를 대거 정리했고 JP모건 지분도 일부 매도한 것으로 소개. 상업용 모기지담보증권(CMBS) 우려: 상업용 부동산 자산 가치가 장부가보다 과대평가되어 있고, 이 자산이 한 번 시장가로 팔리면 다른 대출 자산 전체의 가치가 재평가된다는 주장. 연준과 FDIC가 헐값 매각을 막으려 한다고 함. 만기 불일치: 은행이 단기 예금으로 장기채를 샀고, 금리 인상으로 채권 가치가 폭락했다는 주장. 은행 파산 규모: 스프링 지역은행 위기 이후 7~8월에도 은행 파산이 더 있었지만 언론이 축소하고 있다고 주장. 버크셔 현금 포지션: 역대 최대 수준의 현금 보유로 크래시에 대비 중이라고 해석. 아메리칸익스프레스 대손충당금: 신용카드 연체 증가를 대비해 대규모 충당금을 쌓았다는 점을 근거로 BoA 등 보유 은행주 추가 하락 가능성 제기. 출연자 전망: 발언자는 1~2분기 은행 위기를 예측했고 현재 추가 하락을 경고. 영상 내 부동산 강의 홍보 링크가 포함됨.
다듬은 글
ninja here I hope you're doing well now this is not my normal Channel this is the real estate ninja my brother people say we look like I don't think so we're going to talk about Bank uh information and what J Jamie Diamond just did by dumping a bunch of billions and billions and over hundred billion dollars in JP Morgan stock the reason why we're going to talk about something first Warren Buffett but first just you know it's my brother's Channel he doesn't really have a brohawk it's more of a fauxhawk if you don't mind subscribing it would help him out he asked me he's super busy Crush getting ready for his next venture with real estate and so he asked me to jump on his channel crazy I know all right so here we go and just you know this story is so big I have I have got the largest piece of cardboard I could get for this story but first we're going to talk about a story about banking socks out of Market Insider it's entitled this just came out Warren Buffett dumped a bunch of Bank stocks before their epic tumble this year escaping some major pain now just so you know they are the smartest guys in the room Jamie Diamond Warren Buffett they all know the reason why they're so smart not only because they've been doing a long time they have access to so much information the more information you have the better prepared you are for a crash the better you prepared you are for a boom cycle that's why I've been getting everyone ready for the real estate crash course there's 80% off links down below if it's not $199 that means it's not 80% okay but just so you know there's some uh few down below for today here's the deal in the spring started talking about how everything's collapsing blah blah blah and people were mocking saying that Warren buffer Buffett's buying like crazy I said you're going to find out in two cycles to when when I say a cycle I'm talking about a quarter two quarters how much you don't know about what Warren Buffett's doing and so right now it's just finally coming out this story of him dumping Bank stocks before now I warned about the banking crash last November I said it was going to happen in the first and second quarters of 2023 happened exactly like it was as a matter of fact I think we got like 30,000 subscribers on my channel um about that right very important for people to realize because it's easy to identify these Cycles all right now we've got Jamie Diamond selling a bunch of stock but let's talk about Warren Buffett says right here Warren Buffett's Mass sale of Bank stock is looking mighty shrewd given the Wall Street troubles uh given Wall Street troubles this year since the start of 20120 the fame investor birkshire hathway has exited a bunch of lenders that have seen big sell-offs this year Wells Fargo which is down 5% Bank melon uh b& melon sorry uh Goldman Sachs MNT Bank US Bank and PNC Financial one notable exception among the disposals is JP Morgan but even Jamie diamonds banking Behemoth has trailed the S&P 500 in 2023 but it's interesting because Jamie Diamond's about to sell or he's already working on it right now berkshire's second quarter earnings show the market value of its banking financial and insurance stocks was 67 billion at the end of June with a cost base of 24 billion that chunk of the conglomerate stock portfolio was worth2 billion and had a $40 billion cost base at the close of 2019 moreover it made up just 19% of the total value of birkshire Hathway's portfolio in June down from 41% under lining the scale of berkshire's disposals in the period Buffett explained in April that he soured on the banks because some of them were inflating their portfolios or sorry their profits and misleading investors by valuing their assets at Cost instead of the market value that's exactly what's happening right now with commercial mortgage back Securities and I have to explain this this is very very serious when these Banks crashed in uh the spring the one asset class that nobody no other Banks wanted to touch no hedge funds nobody wants to touch them is and it's this svb uh portfolio of uh commercial mortgage back Securities Now understand commercial mortgage back Securities encompasses all kinds of different properties uh large uh businesses and Commercial uh factories Home Depot centers you know retail centers things like that but it also encompasses multifam real estate right and so these are failing Across the Nation because of the hierar interest rates and that's the one asset class that no Bank wants to touch this is why it's a failed non-performing asset the second that because like what Warren Buffett's trying to explain to you right now is what I'm explaining to you they are overpricing they are inflating the price the values of these assets and the second that one sales because no one wants to touch it for market value right face value and they like hey we know that those are unperformed these are bad loans but the second somebody buys it it now revalues every other loan out there and that's how you have to understand it's just like a stock sale very similar a stock is only worth what the last share sold for in that millisecond that's it and it doesn't matter if it was a th a sale of a thousand shares or a sale of one share that's what values it that second boom boom boom boom boom and that's people don't understand that and so right now the whole world is looking at this one batch of commercial mortgage uh uh back commercial back Securities and they're afraid that when somebody comes out and goes okay we'll buy them at this price and even I'm telling you the Federal Reserve is afraid the FDIC is afraid they're like and I know what they're doing right now they are telling banks no you're not allowed to pay they're sitting there though hey we'll pick it up for pennies on the dollar like no no no no this is the base price because if we go any lower than this everything's screwed this is very akin to what happened the horse trading that was happening while Leman Brothers was collapsing in 2008 they were trying to get the Japanese investors investors from all over the world to come in and buy nobody wanted to buy the Federal Reserve was telling Banks they have to pick up certain parts of the their uh books uh their P buy certain Paper because if they uh released it to the world how much these assets went Pennies on the dollar everything else crumbles including these other Banks so certain Banks like Wills Fargo were forced to buy these assets all right hope people understand how that works but that's what Warren Buffett's saying right now he also them for making the basic error of mismatching their assets and liabilities for example they took in customer deposits that could be withdrawn instantly and use them to buy long-dated bonds very very important this is now again we've talked about this before on my other channel long-dated bonds and these bonds that Banks were holding to maturity it screwed them because as the FED started running rates up it made the face value of these bonds or not the face value the hold of maturity but but the worth of these bonds collapsed all right because why would anyone invest $10,000 in a $10,000 Bond yielding let's say 4% when they could go out and take 10% $10,000 and go buy a bond that's yielding 4.5% see my point they they it's the same dollar amount why would I do that so the value has to come down and that's what it's collapsing all these Banks balance sheets right now and that is why they're putting those on loan with the fed and taking cash to lick re uh you know make their Bank solvent again all right very very important that this is happening Bank stocks have tumbled this year for a few reasons investors fear a repeat of this Springs Regional banking crisis when a trio of lenders imploded after worries about unrealized losses in their bond portfolio spurred customers to yank their deposits and droves it's interesting that they don't even bring up what happened in July and August because we had another couple of banks fail but they don't want to bring it out that oh no it's it's three Banks it's not five it's not six it's not seven they're trying their hardest to keep this out of the news while all the while Warren Buffett sells his stock Jamie Diamond sells his stock what are you doing right now to prepare for this crash and I want you to understand as the banks fail and interest rates keep going up more and more banks are getting tighter in their lending standards yet they're not there are banks out there like rocket mortgage and other lenders home lenders that are easing things they're saying hey instead of 3% to get a government conforming mortgage we just give us 1% okay anyone that's coming in with just 1% should not buy a house right now because I guarantee you they don't even have the right reserves set up but that's another thing that people skate they go oh you know what you could use your 41k as reserves it's this light thing and they know that most people will never have the extra money in the bank when they lose their job to to to stay solvent and keep their house it is a massive plan and that's why you see birkshire hathway moving to a large cash position they have one of the largest cash position they've ever had in history right now because they're getting ready for the crash are you now let's dive into this uh next story because I think it's very very important oh wait hold on there was one more thing check this out it says it's worth emphasizing that Buffett and his team haven't sworn off Banks entirely and they haven't escaped this year's downturn unscathed Bank of America is still berkshire's number two holding after apple and its stock has plunged 23% since the start of January birkshire also holds positions in other Banks like City group and Jeff and credit card providers like American Express in Capital One so the reason why want to bring that up is this everybody was sitting there because all the news stories in the spring were like trying to build up the bank stocks don't worry don't worry Warren Buffett still number two position is Bank of America and even Warren Buffett got caught in that so he sold off a bunch of Bank stocks and he took a massive loss in Bank of America right so he was wrong there but check this out there's a little bit more behind the scenes because I believe he's getting ready to take a big hit on Bank of America American Express announced back in the spring that they have set aside a massive horde of cash for to prepare for people not paying their credit cards now what's more important about that it's not like City group or City Bank came out and said hey we're we're going to with our Capital One card or whatever we're going to set aside money because you got to look at the level of borrower that qualifies for an everyday run-of-the Mill credit card or an AMX card totally different level of borrower so when anex comes out and goes hey we're seeing on the horizon a ton of default and people are going to stop making their credit card payments that is gnarly that is not good at all and and when because their level of borrower is a higher level of borrower okay I'm not saying that if you you know you could be a high level borrower um great credit score and not one AMX card I don't want one you know and and we've got 800 780 850 credit scores but my point being is that uh and so we have different ones for different reasons my point being is by and large MX is known for their type of borrowers okay now this is the big
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