저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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도어대시 IPO 급등 후 시장이 흔들린 것은 시장 버블이 아니라 일시적 과열 정리로 보며 강세장 자체는 유지된다는 결론. 도어대시 IPO 첫날 공모가 102달러에서 시초 182달러로 급등했고, 기업가치 약 600억 달러 수준으로 매출 대비 13배에 거래되는 등 과열이 나타났다고 설명. 시장 충격의 원인으로 시장가 주문 매수자들의 과도한 가격 지불과, 상장 수익을 본 기관 투자자들의 차익 실현 매도가 지목됨. 장중 저점 170달러대 이후 종가는 약 190달러로 회복. 나스닥은 1.94% 하락, 다우는 105포인트 하락했으나 Cramer는 이를 '건강한 조정'이라 평가하며 강세장이 꺾이지 않는다고 봄. 에어비앤비 상장과 로빈후드 상장이 이어질 예정이라 추가 IPO 물량이 시장 부담이 될 수 있다고 언급. 스노우플레이크 사례를 들어 고평가 성장주도 시간이 지나면 횡보 후 회복할 수 있다고 설명. 투자자들에게 시장가 주문 대신 지정가 주문 사용을 권고하고, 과도한 레버리지 베팅을 경계. 알리바바는 중국 기업 중 미국 규제를 충족하는 소수로 매수 관심 종목이라고 언급. 킴벌리클라크는 P&G와의 가격 경쟁 등 우려가 있으나 배당 포함 시 나쁘지 않아 보유 입장을 유지. 1969년 이후 연말 산타랠리 확률 등 계절성도 언급하였으나 구체적 방향 전망은 제한적. 전반적으로 장기적 강세장에 대한 낙관을 유지하며, 단기 IPO 과열 조정은 시장 건강성 회복 과정으로 해석.
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other people not just to educate entertain holy cow is this market just one big game of jenga was the door dash ipo the piece that took down the whole edifice felt like that when it started trading this morning didn't it at a price it was almost double what we thought it would be worth sure seems like it the averages were holding up fine until we saw where doordash was headed and priced at 102 then eventually opened it 182 and that's when the market rolled over the dow ultimately sinking 105 points hasn't been fallen 0.79 in the nasdaq plunging 1.94 don't get me wrong doordash is a good company i like the ceo tony zoo interviewed him just this morning we used his delivery service at our restaurants it was admirable just a great way to generate incremental revenue and learn more about your customers however at these levels doordash is being valued at roughly 60 billion dollars a little crazy isn't it i thought there's a stretch of 30 billion i'd be thrilled if it got there and that's where the deal was supposed to price i told you not to pay up more than 100 per share because i didn't think it was worth more than seven times sales hey believe me that's a hefty moldable given the competition and the lack of consistent profitability but the buyers paid 13 times sales 13 time sales seems like a little bad luck doesn't it as the indications for doordash open kept climbing and climbing ever higher and ever higher no doubt fueled by over exuberant fires the image of my jenga tower it just kept dancing in my head i mean after a remarkable borderline miraculous one for the broader market a piece had been pulled that sent a big chunk of the thing tumbling down it gets worse tomorrow airbnb comes public and a deal that could potentially be bigger than doordash we have to hope that the rest of the jenga tower doesn't fall but there's a reason i'm always warning you about the danger of the big ipos to the rest of the market right so what's going on here has the younger cohort finally decided that they've just gotten way too exuberant or did they just buy doordash at the opening using market orders forcing them to sell something else to pay for it when the price came in higher than they expected i have to believe that actually we're gonna see we could see the same thing tomorrow and that would produce two back-to-back really ugly days bring out a lot of bears remember how the market got slammed in september after the last wave of red hot ipo is like snowflake by the way i couldn't find snowflake's name in the jenga game we've got doordash and then we've got airbnb oh and then there's the robinhood deal right around the corner three jenga towers and then three collapses can the market handle it uh maybe it's just a game first off i don't think this will slay the bull market no i mean even if it weighs us down for a few days yes it's true that people using market orders took door dash to levels that maybe they were far higher than they thought they should have paid with the market order you never know what price you're going to get which is why i always tell you to use limit order sometimes you just got to take a pass with a limit order the transaction won't go through if the price goes beyond the level you're comfortable with of course maybe some buyers thought the doordash would be like snowflake that's a stock that opened a hundred times sales then traded sideways for a couple months for rallying another 50 like a moonshot but as much as i like the dasher okay or airbnb for that matter hey love staying in airbnb uh use the dasher uh they're not in the same league as snowflake remember snowflakes a data warehousing company with business as far as the eye can see i don't they can't handle their they've got too much business their software saves client support because it allows them to hire less experienced information technology people and then train them up rather than needing to hire and we're bidding for expensive stanford graduates with computer science degrees doesn't any other school have computer science yes they do but people love stanford because it's like really cool anyway the company's in a league of its own when snowflake came public there was nothing accidental about this explosive opening with doordash you don't need a computer science well i got some computer scientists there but i don't know i mean i got to presume that buyers didn't expect to pay so much and judging by the decline in the nasdaq away from the dasher they weren't as well capitalized as they needed to be in other words they didn't have enough money to take delivery of their dash shares without selling something else and that's what you saw remember it was really the nasdaq that they did the selling right that's the same kind of guys at the same time the money managers got a piece of the deals decided to start ringing the register and why the hell heck not they're up 80 percent they expected to ride this thing from 100 say to 150 over the course of months so when this taco opened 30 points above even that level how could they not want to sell and that's why doordash quickly rolled over quicker than jenga uh falling from 182 down to the low 170s and you know what at that point it was looking pretty ugly it would have been the first big deal to break down after the opening since lyft and uber both of which took ages to recover but then a funny thing happened a door dash rebound that's right dwartash stock bounced back near the end of the session with the stockholm only closing at just under 190 up five bucks from the opening turns out there were enthusiastic enthusiastic buyers who genuinely liked the thing even at the 60 billion dollar valuation and that actually is huge the way it closed made me more bullish i couldn't resist doing the jenga thing though i mean doordash had finished down from where it opened you would have had a bunch of angry disillusioned buyers who felt like dopes for participating enough deals like that and it breaks the market spirit fortunately doordash rebounded so the deal only caused some temporary it takes so long to build it but you get the picture right anyway still unlike doordash the averages stayed down but you know what i think today's action was i'm actually calling it healthy all right it was like a brush fire clearing out dead wood lots of gravity-defying speculative stocks finally got their comeuppance today and maybe we'll see a little repeat performance of that tomorrow in the wake of the airbnb deal for the bargain hunters of things that are not bargains but we do need things to come down i can't tell you how many times i've heard this mark is getting frothy with all the red hot spark names and ipo's it is too much even for me and i i kind of you know i like what the younger people are doing now you don't want a situation where the money seems so easy to to make that people start making big bets with borrowed cash and that's that is what's happening because they're operating under the assumption that they can't lose now i am all for speculation i'm actually really the only person who comes on tv and says that but at some point you got to bring the register if you let your gains ride forever then what's going to happen is you're going to end up being pancake like you were today this is not a bad sound i kind of like it between doordash today airbnb tomorrow and then robin hood in the near future we're clearing away the froth leaving us with a healthier bull market underneath now one thing i've learned when money managers sell everything to pay for the next big ipo very few people will come on and tell you that the weakness is a buying opportunity instead you'll hear the jeremiah's right the whole rally was a figment of the idol rich imagination now we're reverting to the good old days when investors cared about nothing but earnings per share price targets whisper buying spy sell hold dictatorship of the brooketarian well nothing could be further from the truth we're not going back we got millions of new very different attitude people very different attitudes than their parents these are the new generation buyers these young stock pickers they don't know when to fold but they can get too greedy at times yep they've what they have to learn that there's a price where they can lose money and that all stocks just don't go up now they're only just discovering that market orders are the devil's playground but the bottom line this week's nightmare of the over ipos won't collapse the whole jenga tower let's just knock off a few unstable pieces from the top after we process the new supply from these deals we'll revert to a sturdier edifice based on the promise of these cova vaccines and the reopening economy real positives that will produce real wealth phil and new jersey phil hey boo you jim how are you i am good how about you good happy hanukkah to you oh done done your way thank you when did they ask you a question that pertaining to alibaba um you know with the trump administration facing the law that the listing of chinese stocks that don't comply right with u.s regulations within three years uh-huh and then the chinese postponed the ipo and do you think alibaba is a good buying point yeah yes it is remember that the reason i recommend alibaba consistently is it's the only one in china or maybe jd too and and to some degree by do that really does have u.s finances look i got to tell you alibaba looks just like any american company and it's really well-run company i like alibaba i've been warming up to the jd i know a little late to do that but alibaba has been on my buy list forever and i think you're in a terrific shape on that one can we go to robert north carolina robert hey jersey jim kramer hello from topsail beach north carolina oh it's a beautiful place my beach house is okay that means nothing to rainbow yeah write home about yeah you play golf down here not a golfer can you believe it i don't really have the temperament i think that i'm okay with the question you know so what's up hey i got a question kimberly clark yeah back in april it it depth charged to 112.
well i like that term i'm going to use that okay august it went to 158 right then they had bad earnings the third quarter i mean and they weren't like a deaf charge submarine down to 136 okay what's wrong with the management in that company oh they're fine i mean look they're in price wars with procter and gamble all the time proctor's bigger the chinese give them a hard time they don't have the raw cost down rate but you know what it's been an okay stop when you include the dividend so i'm not gonna back away from kimberly clark all right listen to me it sure seems like a market is just one big game in jenga doesn't it i mean it does feel that way at times all right uh don't worry this week's ipos will not collapse the tower look it's still here all right well man money tonight since 1969 34 out of 45 years have seen a late christmas or december rally so is a santa claus rally on the horizon this year i'm going off the charts to find out in new york state's pension fund one of the world's largest influential investors will drop many of the fossil fuel stocks in the next five years as more shipped away from more oil and gas companies how is the best of the best chevron positioning itself why don't we bring in the ceo mike worth why not and americans with diabetes related heart conditions are 12 times more likely to die of kovid 19 than those without man those are tough outs so let's bring on the ceo of dexcom to find out if it can if he can continue to help patients during the pandemic and stay with
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