저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 크레이머는 기술주 비중을 줄이고 은행·헬스케어·에너지 등으로 분산할 것을 권한다. 시장 상황: 고점 대비 과매도 상태이며 CPI 발표 후 기술주 방어 랠리가 나오고 있다는 진단이다. 임금 지표는 나쁘지 않았다. 기술주: 기술주 전반은 방어할 대상이 아니며, 상승할 때마다 매도 공격을 받는 구조라고 본다. PC 출하량이 1분기 7.3% 감소해 약세 요인이라고 지적하며, 개인 투자자는 기술주 비중을 낮춰야 한다고 조언한다(2017년 이후 긴 상승). 사이버 보안: 우크라이나-러시아 전쟁 영향으로 사이버 관련 종목에 대한 강세 의견은 계속 나오고 있다고 언급한다. 중국: 상하이 봉쇄로 소비와 생산이 막혀 있어 소비재·스타벅스 같은 종목에 부담이며, 시티가 스타벅스를 중립으로 낮추고 목표가를 120달러에서 91달러로 내렸다고 전한다. 에너지: 유가가 10년 전 대비 절반 수준이라 석유주를 긍정적으로 보며, 유가 하락 시 매수 기회라고 본다. 은행: 은행주는 과도하게 하락하지 않을 것으로 보며 방어 가능한 섹터로 꼽는다. 주가가 조금씩 오르는 점을 주목한다. 헬스케어: 인플레이션 둔화 시 매수 기회가 되는 섹터이며 관심이 크다고 말한다. 실적 전망: 기술주 실적 하향 조정 가능성을 경계하며, 제이시 CEO 발표에서 큰 놀라움은 기대하지 않는다고 말한다. 금리: 중국 봉쇄 영향으로 금리 하락 기대가 제한적이라고 보고, 상대적으로 은행·헬스케어를 선호한다. 전반적으로 기술주에 대해 단기·중기 약세 쪽으로 기울어 있고, 분산 투자를 권장한다.
다듬은 글
look am i bullish i i you know we got oversold people were expecting a really bad print we finally got a print that was just bad and we did get some average wages that weren't so bad so it's a good relief rally i see a lot of stocks that are are going up because today's a day where this street's really defending a lot of tech i think the streets should be defending everything meaning that there's much i mean i would defend bond uh banks uh because i think that they're not gonna be so bad i would defend uh a lot of the consumer practice goods i would defend the drugs i just think that the problem with defending tech is that every time it runs somebody now comes out and whacks it because tech is expensive well we're going to get to some of the downgrades today of hpe right and the cell on cisco although we got we got uh goldman up in crowdstrike which we'll get to right i mean look there's just endless bullishness on uh anything cyber because of ukraine russia but there were a lot of notes yesterday about pc weakness and i think that caused a lot of the weakness i know that dell's been a big winner big share taker over eulog packard uh year over year growth 6.9 uh you'll packard your viewer growth minus 40.
whoa a lot of that is is chromebook now i would say that worldwide pc shipments declined 7.3 in the first quarter and that was a lot of yesterday's weakness and you know it's undeniable carl that p that there's a slowdown in tech uh but do people want to fight that i think you should be pivoting lower your tech weighting if you're an individual it's been a great run since 2017.
i don't know look for a stock that you like that look for a hormel if you want to i mean just look for something else besides tech i get a lot of questions when we play am i diversified and the average the average guy has two tech stocks out of five make him one make him one that's okay well um back to cpi though i mean in the coming months the year on year compares are going to get a lot easier yes right and the annual rate's going to ostensibly slow isn't that going to create the kind of environment for nasdaq that we're seeing this morning well i would like to think that but i would rather be in a drug stock or a bank stock if only just because uh while interest rates may be better this shutdown in china is just mind-numbing and it's very hard to see people making their quarters when you can't leave your house so you can't make the stuff and i think that that's you know look you got two problems here right you got the war ukraine russia and then you have china lockdown and when i i i watch eunice i mean what kind of commerce do you have in china if you can't go anywhere i mean you know then i would say well hold apple direct to the consumer those guys can't go anywhere so i think the china slowed down or someone said to me this morning ben stotto why would i want to own starbucks when you can't go to starbucks and the answer is well let it come in yep uh city today does cut starbucks to neutral they take their target from 120 down to 91.
that said some are arguing this morning that the action in oil is a reflection of the easing of the shanghai lockdown well i happen to like oil again i think oil is half of what it was in the s p 10 years ago so why not be looking at oil stocks and when oil dipped yesterday you got an opportunity so i'm just saying be more balanced is all i'm saying i i like a lot of tech as much as i have but i just think that i also like others more just because i don't want to come in here and see number cuts and all the techs have with the exception of cyber are faced with the possibility of number cuts now we have andy jassyon what a great booking on uh on squawk and i look he's not going to tell the numbers or but he's going to tell you how he's fighting inflation and i just think that you know what the freight is coming down so maybe that can help him do spot freight but i don't think he's going to wow us we were getting wow with tech i don't think we get wow i think we get wild with banks i'm very intrigued by bats i think we get wow with with drugs because you buy them when there's a slow down in inflation but i look at the bank stocks and i'm watching them creep up and i'm looking at tech stocks and think they're just recovering
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