저자: 짐크레이머 · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 빅테크(FANG) 주식은 고인플레·금리 인상 환경에서 투자하기 어려우니 비중을 줄이고 금융·헬스케어·산업재·석유 관련주로 무게를 옮기라는 주장. 빅테크 부진 원인: 2022년 4월 현재 연준의 인플레 억제(금리 인상)로 대형 기술주가 매도되었고, 디지털화는 금리 상승 앞에서 뒷전으로 밀렸다고 설명. 빅테크 펀더멘털: 성장 스토리는 여전히 훌륭하지만 현재 시장은 가치주를 선호하며, 성장률 대비 저렴한 종목은 알파벳과 페이스북(메타) 정도로 언급. 클라이언트 포트폴리오 조치: 기술주 비중을 축소하고 현금을 확보해 금융·헬스케어·산업재·소비 지출 수혜주, 유가 상승 수혜 석유 기업 및 서비스 기업으로 이동. 석유 관련: 유가는 러시아의 우크라이나 침공과 중국 봉쇄 영향으로 높게 유지될 것으로 보며, 품질 좋은 석유 기업 매수 기회로 제시. 식량 인플레도 언급. 인플레 전망: 곧 발표될 CPI·PPI 등 인플레 지표가 높게 나올 가능성이 있으며, 운송비 하락이 일부 완화 요인이라고 설명. 시장 주기 비교: 2000~2004년식 기술주 붕괴보다는 1984년·1991년 같은 전환 국면에 가깝다고 봄. 리스크: 포지션 축소 중 기존 보유 기술주 일부 매도로 큰 양도차익 발생, 자선신탁 기부 의무가 있다고 언급. 광범위한 분산투자 필요성 강조. 개별 종목 언급: 메타(페이스북)는 매수 종목, 알파벳은 저평가, 엔비디아·마이크론·AMD 등 반도체는 대만 공급망 리스크 언급. 엘리 머스크의 트위터 인수 이슈와 핀테크, 여행주(유가 반대 방향 움직임) 언급. LHX(L3해리스)는 계속 관심 있으나 가격 조정 대기, ULTA는 긍정적 평가. 출연자 전망: 크레이머는 주식 시장이 큰 폭의 하락을 겪은 뒤 S&P500이 과거 수준 이상으로 회복할 수 있다고 봄. 기술주 반등은 금리 안정 후 가능하다는 입장. 마무리: 헤시(Hershey) 등 패키지 식품주와 소매주도 언급되었으나 구체적 방향은 제시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
my mission is simple to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors there's always a homework in somewhere and i promise to help you find it mad money starts now hey i'm kramer welcome to mad money welcome to craig america i'd be one of my friends i'm just trying to save you some money my job not just to entertain but to educate put this one in perspective so call me at 1-800-7437 or tweet me at jim creamer on another ugly day on wall street where the dow shed 413 s p lost 1.69 and then nasdaq tumbled 2.18 let's get one thing straight i hate the big pivot i despise that the large cap tech bms have gone out of style along with their small mid mid cap enablers but ever since november when the fed decided to crack down inflation these stocks have been dumped into the meat grinder now i don't really want to pick on fang but it's time to retire this once great acronym that i created many years ago if only because three out of five change their names these stocks facebook now meta platforms amazon apple netflix and output along with microsoft the semiconductor stocks and the cloud-based software plays simply don't thrive in an environment with high inflation and rising interest rates it's not their fault digitization takes a back seat to interest rates now that they keep going up doesn't mean they're finished they all have fantastic growth stories they can pivot too but this is a market that covets value stocks and all these fang names the only ones that are really cheap related to growth rate are alphabet when you back out the cash and facebook one of which we bought today and the other i want to buy more of if it comes down investing club members of course get that call my chapel trust finished last year with a lot of tech because we thought the pain would be contained to the highest multiple growth stocks with no earnings that's how things played out during the 2015 inflation scare seemed like a decent blueprint at the same time there were so many junk companies that came public via ipos and spat deals and i thought we had a real opportunity to clean out the draws and focus on solid growth we were doing we were done we were done with the flying cars the electric vehicle battery parts multiple grills even as i kind of liked those these offerings had sucked up so much capital that they made it difficult to keep more mature growth stocks going i'm thrilled that we're able to get so many people out of these formerly high five higher flying price to sales names saw a bunch of people this weekend who said hey thank you thank you but what surprised me is that inflation has even gotten hotter the market didn't turn on all things growth not just the ones with no earnings including the ones that trade on earnings and not just sales now most of these are placed on cell phones or high performance computing and digitization of the plumbing behind the internet 5g i also misjudged how much money went into crypto that i thought was ready to go back into common stocks can we just admit it crypto trades with a nasdaq at a time you don't want to be trading with the nasdaq now i am load to sell all these tech growth things that would be a mistake i'm confident if we could just get a couple of interest rate days to stabilize it would allow the best of the growth names to make a comeback and we have plenty of room to buy our old favorites but i don't see that happening let's just say in the near term we're about to go into a series of terrifying inflation numbers it's entirely possible these numbers tumor price index producer price index will be better than feared since everybody fears them but even if they're peaking we still have a problem with food and oil inflation courtesy of the russian invasion of ukraine plus there's a gigantic coveted outbreak in china with the government imposing severe lockdown on the parts of the country that are most essential to the global economy the good news is the freight rates all across across the country and even the world are coming down that could put a lid on some inflation but not enough to save these big tech stocks even as they aren't in trouble over supply chain or labor or even freight unless they have semiconductors they're trying to get out of china and very few have that by the way most of them are locked up in taiwan now it's difficult to talk about the russian invasion of ukraine in anything but humanitarian terms the refugees death tolls the pictures oh my god the times with pictures it's all it's all horrific but there's also an economic cost ukraine represents 13 of all the world's calories and russia is the most important energy exporter to europe if you cut off versus oil and gas production that's enough for energy prices to stay elevated for a long time to come in fact i thought today's decline part of it's because of the the opening of the strategic petroleum reserve but part of it is just because maybe people aren't as frightened which is wrong oil has given you a good chance to start doing some buying of the quality oil companies but i want to get back to the rest of the market i think we're still in the midst of this great reset we have a pivot out of super growth companies especially the biggest growth stocks represented as much as 50 percent of the gains from the 2017 low so narrow and into a market looks surprising like the old days broad when we're led by a balanced group of sectors at various times health care of the financials will be the largest areas of investment with tech hanging in there but not nearly as important it's become and that's good now i don't think this would be as bad as the tsunami of pain that blanket at all tech from 2000 to 2004 you know what it's more like oh boy graybeard it's what happened in 1984 when tech had had a couple years run and it collapsed and it passed the torch to more traditional years or how about this one for more recent 1991 when the fed decided to raise interest rate short-term rates so the banks could make fortunes off of their deposits that's happening again so let me tell you what i did today for the investing club we cut our exposure some more after just brutal endless exposure to tech and a lot of them we got froze we told people to sell them last week but we couldn't because you know the rules if we talk about it we have to wait but you can do it we raise a lot of cash so we can profit from the pivot as we expect financials health care industrials oils companies that benefit from consumer spending or an increase in the price of oil meaning not just the actual oil oil companies but the service companies too we think they're the new winners i don't like having to do this it involves trimming some of my absolute favorite stocks also taking huge capital gains that have to get sent out to charity because of the nature of the trust like last year we had to send out 570 000 took these big gains don't get me wrong i'm thrilled to have such big gains because it means i can help those who are struggling including refugees escaping the brutality of the russian invasion uh i just fear that the heyday of the tech giants is over at least until the 20-year treasury comes down inflation peaks and then maybe we can pick among the texans to work for the moment i do think we have to forget most of fang focus on the money centers the oils retailers with tremendous scale health insurers big pharma when i say big pharma i mean only big pharma absolutely not biotech because they're the losers in the high inflation environment and you know i like oil so much we also have some scattered tech winners the ones that get private equity bids like a sale point of proof point today hard to predict we'll get excited by elon musk ultimately attempting to join the board of twitter and then trying to take it over or sell it who that knows we'll be bored by fintech from time to time we'll like the travel stocks on days that oil goes down and hate them on days that it goes up and we'll get moments where everything works but you'll still need to stay diversified and that's the real key those with too much tech need to bounce to reposition i think you're gonna get that i really do i we've been saying that for the chapel trust we had to do some sell you can follow it by joining the cnbc investing club we'll be doing some more you need a position with no ever waiting to anything except maybe oil because the industry's newfound discipline with drilling oil used to have twice the waiting it has now on the s p 500 i think it goes back to where it was if not higher you should be buying here's the bottom line because there's no new money coming in to speak of and because you're not able to get an actual inflation-adjusted return on charges but you might soon the great pivot won't be funded by money over the transom it will be financed by money managers selling expensive big tech stocks until alas tech becomes cheap to the s p then and only then will be safe running and gunning those stocks once more george in michigan george hi jim great to talk to you thank you george what's up jim a couple of months back you were real enthusiastic about l3 here and you got me interested too and i've been watching it for quite some time building position in it now with ukraine being invaded it would seem like it would be even more of a highlight for you but i haven't heard you mentioned it and what's your opinion of it you know what george you know why you having to be mentioned i keep waiting for a price break i keep thinking it'll come down and i'll be able to talk about it because you know how much i liked it it doesn't come in maybe that's the sign of a really great stock it just doesn't come in and that is a really great stock let's go to winis in new york winneth hey jim this is a winner's father i have a winner next to me uh she's 16 actually 16 today here we go hi mr kramer um my name is with i'm a sophomore at blindbrook high school in westchester my question is on ulta beauty the ticker's ulta i bought a little bit about a month ago in the 350s with the intention of adding more lower i've been surprised that the stock's gone straight up since what are your thoughts on the stocks from here well this kid's got horse sense because again just like um the lhx just like uh l3 harris ulta has not come in and yet i think ulta's terrific i just went into a new altar the other day i could not believe how gorgeous the merchandise is how well it's displayed alt is a winner just like oh and by of course happy birthday winner that goes without saying i think you get no it's the other guy at sephora you get the stuff for your birthday ah anyway look i hate the pivot but it is a reminder that we gotta stay diversified this great pivot will be funded by money managers selling expensive tech stocks until they drive tech down to where it's cheap relative to the s p only then we'll be able to safely run and gun those stocks omega money tonight growth at a reasonable price that's what we're talking about that's the new game in town i'm reviewing some travel and restaurant names to fit the thesis then could hershey be in a sweet spot in this market i mean the run of the package food stocks that keeps going on i'm going to give you my take and retail's in it right everybody's naked i'm turning to one of the best animals in the street get his take on the sector and you better believe it's not negative so stay with kramer don't miss a second of mad money follow at jim cramer on twitter have a question tweet gramer hashtag mad tweets send jim an email to madmoney cnbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc miss something head to madmoney.cnbc don't miss a second of mad money follow at jim kramer on twitter have a question tweet cramer hashtag mad tweets send jim an email to madmoney cnbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc miss something head to madmoney.cnbc.com
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