저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 레이 달리오는 분산투자로 위험 대비 수익을 높이는 것이 투자의 핵심이며, 시장 타이밍보다 저축·부채·분산 원칙을 강조한다. 투자 학습 방식: 실패에서 원칙을 도출해 규칙화하고, 이를 알고리즘으로 옮겨 과거 데이터(수백 년, 여러 국가)에 백테스트했다고 설명한다. 컴퓨터는 더 많은 정보를 더 빠르고 감정 없이 처리할 수 있어 의사결정 보조 역할을 했다고 말한다. 분산투자 원칙: 상관관계가 낮은 여러 베팅을 하면 기대수익은 유지하면서 위험을 크게 줄일 수 있다고 주장한다. 그는 이를 '투자의 성배'라 부르며, 위험 대비 수익 비율을 약 5배 개선할 수 있다고 말한다. 현금과 인플레이션: 변동성이 낮아 가장 안전해 보이는 현금이 인플레이션과 세금을 고려하면 장기적으로 가장 나쁜 투자라고 주장한다. 자산을 여러 국가와 자산군에 분산할 것을 권한다. 부채 관리: 부채가 소비에 쓰이면 안 되며, 집이나 자산 구입처럼 자산 수익이 부채 비용보다 높거나 강제 저축 효과가 있을 때만 유효하다고 본다. 시장 행동 원칙: 시장은 군중을 반영하므로 군중의 반대로 행동해야 하지만 감정적으로 어렵고 타이밍 게임은 권하지 않는다고 말한다. 미래 리스크: 다음 경기침체 때 연금·의료 등 복지 부채가 문제가 될 수 있으며, 재원 마련을 두고 정치적 갈등이 커질 것이라고 우려한다. 사회 문제: 자본주의와 민주주의가 하위 60% 계층에게 작동하지 않고 있다고 진단한다. 코네티컷 등의 교육 격차, 아편 사용과 자살 증가를 국가적 비상사태로 보고 공공·민간 파트너십과 마이크로파이낸스 같은 생산적 지원을 제안한다. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산의 단기 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
ago you built it into the most successful hedge fund in the world when you started how did you learn to invest and how did your investment strategy change over time well i learned i learned i learned from my mistakes in other words my instinct is um you know you go there and you place a bet um i've had winners and i've had losers and what i did every time i made a mistake they became uh painful mistakes but with time i realized that reflecting on those mistakes would give me gems what i would do is i'd say why did i make that mistake and i would learn from that mistake and i'd write down a rule so what was helpful for me is i put that rule principles these principles i wrote these principles down those principles that i wrote down i then put into algorithms in other words equations and what i learned by being able to do that is by if i took my decision criteria those principles and then i tested them back through time i gained a perspective that was fantastic i could test them in back a hundred years i could test them in different countries and i would learn how those rules work and i put by putting all those rules together and then how having these algorithms the computer could replicate my thinking but it could actually think better than i could because it what it would do is it would take it could process more information it could process it faster and it could process it less emotionally so it was like having a gps that was next to me while i was also making my decisions like you're driving in a car and you have both operating and to have that next to me was um you know invaluable it would learn that you as well because you're more diversified when i look at the way you set up your portfolio it's not as niche as that i'm big on diversity you're very big on diversification knowing how knowing how to adversely well is more important than almost anything people don't understand this is that an evergreen principle yes that's an evergreen principle interesting and the reason i'm saying that the way it is it's almost like a casino making its money okay okay the way that you do it is you get an edge so now when you have to make a bet i've got to bet against the whole world the world has view on something is reflected in the price so when i think something is attractive or unattractive that means i have to bet against the whole world and whether that's right or not that's difficult i get it right you know more often than i get it wrong but i'm going to get it wrong sometimes and so when you can take a lot of different bets what you can do is like the casino you'll get your average that your bet would be but you'll reduce your risk of one of those tables not being the table that's paying off and so that margin then so i can reduce my risk without reducing my return by knowing how to diversify and i'd say that's particularly true important for for the people who are listening your investors because what they've got to reduce risk without reducing return that's right that's the specialty that's right elaborate a little bit more if you don't mind on that so reducing risk without reducing the return because a lot of times if i'm reducing the risk it means my return is also going lower but you're saying no we're reducing it without even reducing the return right i mean that's a high paying skill set to have it's the most important thing that you could start off doing if you have a number of equally good likely bets but they're uncorrelated like the casino you know one table is going to gank me a margin like this but take another table and it makes me a margin like this but i might have volatility about those let me take all those investments that i think will make 10 so that's my return but they're uncorrelated with each other that means i'll still get to 10 i don't lower my 10 but my diversification means i lower my risk so i improve my return to risk ratio ah is that an art that you can teach oh yeah yeah i wrote about it in there's a what i call a section in this book the holy grail of investing it's a three pages long and it explains basically this important thing because when that epiphany happened to me and how i would do it it changed everything by being able to do that because i can improve through diversification i can improve my return to risk ratio by a factor of five so by diversifying okay the return relative to the risk i can keep my returns the same and reduce my risk to one-fifth if i know how to diversify well and that's why i'm explaining it's not all that complicated it's simply explained in the book but in any case that is the holy grail of investing okay that's a big thing if you start to know that that's what you're going for one of the problems is that the experience that you had as the last experience is the one that's going to stick in your mind and probably will not be the one that's going to get you so that the next experience will be very very different um i i know my my parents went through the great depression and then they missed out on the boom because then they're always thinking about that and so i think um i think that what they need to do is see all of those crises that's why you can see inflationary ones and see all of those and once you get that perspective i would say three things to your generation okay three recommendations the first recommendation is to is to think about your savings and how much money do you have for savings and the best way to think about that is to think how much money do i spend each month and how much money do i have saved so that i can how many months am i going to be okay without that and to value savings right and and calculate it because savings in that is freedom and security and think about what that is so that's that's the first what how much do i have for that the second thing is how do i save well what should i put my saving in and when thinking about what you should put your saving in realize that the least risk investment that you think from volatility is the least risk investment it which is cash is the worst investment over a period of time and you can judge that by judging the rate of inflation in relationship to the after-tax income you're going to earn so if you have an inflation rate that's two or three percent and you're earning one percent and you have to pay taxes on that one percent or the one or two percent that you're going to get you're going to get taxed essentially at two percent a year and that's going to be a problem so you have to move into assets that are um other assets that are going to do better over a period of time and when you do that the most important thing i i can convey to you is to diversify well because i can guarantee you that one of those assets and you won't be able to pick the right one will be disastrous in your lifetime that you will lose half of that savings if you're in the wrong one and you won't know what the right one is and so pick different countries pick different asset classes and i could probably take too long explaining how you might do that but but so that would be the the second thing to learn first thing is think about how to save be cautious about debt when you're thinking about debt think about is that debt going to help my savings or is it going to produce an income sometimes debt like buying a house or buying an apartment or buying an asset it produces forced savings forced savings is a good thing or if you're taking on debt and you're thinking am i going to have that debt in an asset that asset better produce more income than the asset than the cost of your debt if you're using debt for consumption that's not a good thing to do okay you're giving up that uh that safety so i want so number one is think about how much you save and think about whether that should be and what how you borrow number two make sure that you think about the diversification of that not in cash and number three do the opposite of what your instincts are if you're going to play the game it has to be the opposite of what your instincts in the crowd says because the market reflects the crowd so you want to buy when no one wants to buy and you want to sell when no one wants to sell right so and that's emotionally difficult and probably you're not going to play that game well because it takes a lot of resources to play the i'm we spend hundreds of millions of dollars each year to try to play that game well and it's a tough game to play well so i would caution you about the market timing game but i would say that if you're going to do it do it in the ways that are uncomfortable because they're opposite your instincts that's really good advice right um one more thing that really resonated with me in the book was if in the next downturn some of the implications could be the impact on pension obligations health care is my generation are going to be on the hook for that yeah so we pay a lot of attention to debt and we should but pension obligations and health care obligations are just like that there are obligations that require cash to fund those things and when you think about that we don't have enough money to fund those things and so there'll be a squeeze and i think that's also part of this political conflict because when you say to somebody that you're not going to be able to fully fund their pension or how are you going to fund it what are you going to take it away from in order to fund it or if you think about the health care issues and so on with the demographics and those require taking things away from people that have been promised to people and or do you print the money these are issues that will be important for your generation and you know not only are you an incredible money manager but you're also a really big philanthropist and when you're talking about the next downturn you're also bringing up some big social issues the wealth gap how do you think about that how do we address this issue because it sounds like it's going to be a very big problem yeah i think uh capitalism has got to work for all the people and democracy's got to work for everybody and and we're in a situation right now because of a lot of things that it's not working for a large portion of the bottom 60 percent i separated the averages to the bottom 60 percent of the top forty percent i could have done it the eighty percent or even ninety five percent um and it's not working for a large percentage of population we don't have adequate education we don't create bottoms in many cases my wife um works in connecticut to try to help uh what are called disin uh disengaged and disconnected youth let's give you a picture connecticut which is the richest state in the country or or equal to the richest state in the country has 22 percent of its high school students are disengaged or disconnected disengaged means they attend high school but they don't really study they just sort of get through and disconnected means they don't even know where they are 22 percent those students those people are going to be on the street that's a problem there are school districts in which they have to share books or in some cases even have to share pencils they literally will break a pencil in half and shut and sharpen it from both ends or pass it around and so on and those that issue about opportunity in terms of education or even income opportunity um there's a population um that in that bottom 60 percent where opiate use is rising and um and suicides are rising that i think there has to be considered a national emergency in which we create metrics what are those conditions and that there should be a dealing with that i think that these things can be done dealt with much much better but it has to be treated in a way that that's dealt with and i just by making them productive i don't mean by giving money or being by giving welfare but by doing certain things probably in private public partnerships in which the private sector that could be business sector together with the government sector can can do the checks and balances to make those things productive i see many of these cases i fund for example uh microfinance grameen america is one but a number of those and and the capacity to lend somebody a thousand dollars and get paid back not 99 98 payback rates um and and that thousand dollars can create a the purchase of a rug cleaning piece of equipment and that person's in business to be able to be productive those kinds of things need to be thought about because if we don't have capitalism working for the majority of people it's not it's going to be threatened and the same thing is democracy the democracy is based on notion of compromise to be able to bring people together and so on i think if we have too much fragmentation i think that these are the biggest risks i think debt crisis can be managed but when you get into a bad situations as a basic principle if you have rich and poor living together and they have to decide how they're going to spend a budget how they divide a pie and you have an economic downturn you're probably going to have a conflict and i think that has to be dealt with
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