저자: Rob/영상내인용:PeterLynch · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 단기 가격 예측은 불가능하니 장기 관점을 유지하라는 메시지이며, 진행자는 암호화폐 장기 상승을 낙관한다. 영상 개요: 진행자 Rob이 1997년 Peter Lynch 인터뷰를 소개하며 장기 투자 조언을 전달한다. Lynch는 1977~1990년 Magellan 펀드로 연평균 약 30% 수익을 냈고, 워런 버핏 내기에서 헤지펀드들이 S&P500을 이기지 못한 사례를 언급된다. Lynch 발언 요지: 공포(대공황, 핵전쟁, 유가 급등, LDC 부채, 일본 붕괴론 등)는 늘 있었고 대부분 빗나갔다. 시장은 장기적으로 우상향하지만 단기 방향은 아무도 모른다. 하락 통계: 96년간 10% 이상 하락이 53회, 25% 이상 하락(약세장)은 약 6년에 한 번꼴로 발생한다. 하락은 피할 수 없으나 장기 보유가 보상받는다. 사례: Hertz는 파산 후 회복되어 그때 매수한 사람들이 큰 이익을 봤다. 진행자 의견: 웰스파고의 암호화폐 투자 상품 제공, 카르다노의 일본 시장 상장 승인과 스마트 계약 업데이트 등 긍정 소식을 열거하며 현재 약세장 이후 암호화폐 상승 사이클을 기대한다. 다만 구체적 시점·가격은 밝히지 않는다. 리스크: 단기 하락 가능성을 인정하며 시점 예측은 불가능하다고 명시한다.
다듬은 글
welcome digital asset news this is Rob and uh this week I'll be out uh for vacation but there was a video we did about a year ago and the information that we put out back then is just as valuable as it is today I'm going to talk about is some Sage words of advice uh from one of the only gentlemen one of the few to beat the S P 500 as far as the hedge fund that is Peter Lynch and he's going to give you some of probably the best investment advice I have ever heard in my life and how it pertains today in this bear market and of course in the eventual bull market which are just a natural cycle so without further Ado I'm going to just turn it over to Peter Lynch today just like the thumbnail suggests this is some of the best advice I've ever seen as far as investing and we're going to do is we're going to take a look as uh we're gonna take a trip down memory lane and take a listen to Peter Lynch he was the president of the Magellan hedge fund which one of the most successful hedge funds almost evolved time it's out to the S P 500 numerous years and he's going to talk about how there's a lot of things to be concerned about and you really shouldn't be too concerned about these things on top of the fact that what goes up must come down and then if we just kind of let go of some of the fears usually things work themselves out and we'll take a look at what's going on there on top of the fact that Wells Fargo starts offering crypto Investments to clients which is kind of odd because they just told everybody to stay away now all of a sudden just like every other bank and institution out there now they're all getting back into cryptocurrency digital assets and offering it to their wealthy clients surprise surprise and then we'll take a look at cardano with finally getting approval for listing in the tough Japanese Market this is great news as far as in the Asian markets but this is right on the heels of cardano coming out with their smart contracts as the Alonso integration rolls forward and we'll see that around September and then finally we'll take a look at what's going on with the charity for the D news cardano stake pool so what I really want to do is just get into today's top story which is of course the Peter Lynch crypto lessons and I found this one fascinating this one it's from a YouTube channel called investor center it's a definite uh subscribe to I actually tweeted this out uh two or three days ago and uh I'm just gonna have Peter Lynch talk to you about what this was this was back in 97 this is quite some time ago and you might be asking yourself you're not familiar like who's Peter Lynch and why is Rob's talking about Peter Lynch who cares well Peter Lynch manager of the Magellan fund at Fidelity Investments between 77 and 1990 Lynch averaged a 30 percent annual return which is consistently more than the S P 500 making it the best performing Mutual fun in the world I think maybe perhaps ever and what was shocking to me is that a 30 return people like oh well it's just a mutual fund but you know how good is that well over time mutual funds don't do that hot and if you remember this thing called Buffett's bet uh but Warren Buffett came out and said look you guys are overpriced and everything you're making too complex everybody should just invest in the S P 500 as far as an index fund and he's and in 2008 he issued a challenge to the hedge fund industry all of them and said uh look I will pay you a million dollars if you can beat uh the S P 500 over a specific amount of time it was like a 10 years and the only one that took him up was Protege partners and uh here's what happened project co-founder who left the fun in 2015 can see the defeat ahead of the contest schedule the wrap up on December 31st 2017 States for all intents and purposes the game is over and I lost so that's very telling just so you know that all of the hedge funds out there I mean a million dollars is nothing to sneeze at right and they all just said nope we're not taking that only one did it and they got the pants beat off them so that's why it's so impressive to me that Peter Lynch could come here and do 30 percent which is way more than the S P 500 which is roughly 10 so he could 3x it so this is why I like to listen to Smart money so I'm just going to let Peter talk to you about why it's just important just to calm down take a look at the big picture and uh it doesn't really matter if you don't know where things are going because guess what neither did Peter Lynch let's take a listen see everybody's got the brain power to do all the stock market questions whether you have the stomach that's the key organ in the body there's always something to worry about in the 50s it was depression and nuclear war the 50s was the best decade of the century let's talk about except for the 80s only slightly better these are only slightly better people they expect a lot we had an okay it wasn't a great uh decade they just didn't expect much we made it through and uh stock market was terrific do you remember when oil went from four to forty remember that remember period oil went from 4 to 40.
and if the expert said it was gonna go to 100 and all the countries of the World Bank and then in the big Banks go bankrupt and we're gonna have a great depression and the stock markets go down and we don't wind up selling pencils and apples no the uh well I'm going to order one from four to 40 and the experts said it was gonna go 100.
within two years oil was at 14 the experts now much higher paid at this point are saying it's going to go to four and we have a depression and people believe it again you know the uh I remember when the money supply was going too fast they said we're gonna have a depression there was going too slow we're gonna have a depression remember the LDC debt remember the lvc debt all the banks our banks are very smart they lent all their net worth to Zimbabwe and Botswana and all these countries Chile a lot of times they can't pronounce is Chase Manhattan and chemical or manufactured Hanover these countries weren't doing so well then they were called undeveloped countries or less developed countries now you have to call them emerging countries it's not politically correct to call anybody an undeveloped country sorry I just found out the other day that the term for somebody that's overweight is laterally challenged yes it says there's a laterally challenged yeah but these are LDC debt they're all going to go bankrupt and we have a depression in the Mideast was gone the world remember that one mid East around the world and we're going to buy our bonds and market crash and we have a depression then Japan was going to work another one Japan was all layouts and they were going to buy a bonds and we're having depression within three years the Nick nikai died gone from forty thousand to sixteen thousand the banking system is in trouble and people said Japan was going to collapse and we're gonna have a depression so I have no idea when the markets can go down and uh no idea ones go up I'm totally shocked the market was four thousand one half years ago or a while ago it's eight thousand uh I had no idea about this uh very surprisingly but I'll guarantee you the Mark will be a lot higher in 15 years it'll be a lot higher in 25 years what's gonna do the next one or two years I don't have any idea and if somebody in this room knows about it they're not telling it or they're not in this room they're down in um so yeah again so how many people do you know that could have gotten into I mean even just stocks uh and or mostly cryptocurrency years ago but they were told no no too risky no no it's gonna get banned no no China's doing this no no American government's doing this no no the banks don't approve for it down down you go and now here we are and um nobody knows nobody has any idea but I mean again one of the best investors of all time is like I had no idea but all he did was play the long game and that's the ones who usually make the best games just ones that played a long game and are patient and then the last one I'm gonna just finish up with this and this is just a quick timeline of just how much how expansive things are as far as in the traditional market and how I think it's going to carry over the crypto markets take a listen I don't worry about that I know we've had uh 96 years of century and the Market's Fallen 53 times we have 53 declines of 10 or more so 15 declines in 96 years once every two years we have a 10 decline of the 53 declines fifteen one five I've been 25 percent so 15 and 96 years but once every six years Market Falls 25 percent that's we call a bear Market and it's going to happen I don't care everyone is going to happen I would love to know I obviously it would be very useful to know when to happen it doesn't make any difference to me Cobra products will be a lot higher eight years from now a lot higher 16 years now a lot higher 30 years from now that's what I deal with exactly he just he pretty much just told you his whole secret he's like I don't care what's going to happen the next month two months six months a year two years I'm in it for the long haul and that's what I'm all about and that's pretty much the same thing here I don't know what's going to happen tomorrow or the next week or a month I see good things uh you know coming up but I can't tell you when and again what goes down I think will go up eventually it's not like it goes all the way down even like here's a great example even Hertz Rent a Car which was being made a fun of by everybody because all the millennial investors and Gen X and Gen Y and gen Z or whatever else it is they were piling into hurts because it was such a low stock to buy but guess what it was in bankruptcy and they're making fun of like you morons you have no idea but guess what all they had to do is wait and they came out of bankruptcy and guess guess who got rewarded the most the ones who paid for her to rent a car and I don't know how much it is right now but uh those guys made a killing so again uh just taking a look at history from the you know lessons from the past you can kind of see where things are going don't look at the short term when in doubt zoom out I see there's a lot of good things I could care less I couldn't excuse me I couldn't care less about what's going on today or tomorrow or next week or a month or six months I see some good things happening I just don't know when foreign
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