저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
연준의 채권 ETF 매입 등 대규모 유동성 공급으로 주식시장과 실물경제가 괴리되어 있으며, 이는 자산 인플레이션만 키우고 소득 격차와 완전고용 회복에는 도움이 되지 않는다는 주장이다. [시장-경제 괴리] 경제지표(실업, GDP, 기업실적)는 악화되는데 주식시장은 상승하고 있으며, 이는 실물경제가 아니라 중앙은행의 정책이 주가를 움직이고 있음을 보여준다. [연준 정책과 디플레이션 우려] 연준의 채권 ETF 매입으로 자금이 대형 기술주에 몰리고 있으며, 이 흐름이 지속되면 일본식 장기 디플레이션과 10년간의 실업이 올 수 있다고 경고한다. [재정정책 방향] 정책 효과를 높이려면 기업이 아니라 미국 납세자에게 직접 재정 지원을 해야 하며, 자산 인플레이션보다 소비자의 소비 여력을 높이는 방향이 필요하다고 주장한다. [회복 전망] 사람들이 집에 머무는 상황에서는 경제가 회복되기 어렵고, 안전하게 고용과 소비를 되살리는 것이 우선이며 회복에는 긴 시간이 걸릴 것으로 본다. [결론 전망] 주가가 실물경제 수준으로 내려오거나 경제가 주가 기대치에 맞게 개선되어야 두 시장이 다시 연동될 것이라고 본다.
다듬은 글
today we're gonna reflect on what billionaire investor Tomas Pali Hypatia had to say about the disconnect between the US economy and the stock market welcome back everyone this is the first video of a series that covers some real interesting takes coming from one of my favorite people to listen to when it comes to talking about the state of the economy investing and how to approach looking at businesses during these uncertain times if you don't know Chema he's the CEO of social capital chairman of Virgin Galactic which is a commercial spacecraft company and he also owns the Golden State Warriors he was the youngest VP at AOL back in a day and later on became an executive at Facebook who was a big part of growing facebook early on that later led to them achieving 1 billion monthly active users and being worth hundreds of billions of dollars I'm not sure it fits because he's doing more interviews now but I have noticed that in the last two months samatha has become a little more popular more and more people are finding out about him and quickly get drawn to him because he is truly a great mind he's very rational and there's a great speaker you know he really measures his words and is very good at articulating himself without sounding too sophisticated while at the same time not dumbing it down too much and obviously most importantly in my opinion at least he has a very good investing insight and I really enjoy as well as have learned a lot from his views on the world as well as how effective businesses are supposed to be run so back to the topic it's obvious that the US stock market is not a representation of the economy at the moment it's actually a representation of central bank actions what we've seen over the last two months is unemployment GDP company earnings everything is going down oh the economic data is going negative but the stock market is rallying so there's this dislocation between sort of the economic carnage on the ground and what stock investors are seeing all this money printing from the Federal Reserve is definitely inflating stock prices right now and it doesn't look like they're gonna slow down anytime soon which makes me really worried because that's not really good for the long-term health of our economy let's take a look at what tomate had to say about this jamala it's great to see you this morning I think where I want to start is the big news of day in what's become a debate the Fed planning to buy up ETFs backed by bonds and and what that means and what do you think it says about our economy and what kind of debate you think there's going to be in this country about the steps the government's taking well I think that if there was any doubt before there should be no doubt now that we have completely divorced the economy from the stock and the bond markets and you know the Fed has been the principal agent of that obfuscation and so you know what these guys are doing now is with the ballooning balance sheet and all this money going in to prop up companies what you're going to start is a really bad or you're going to accelerate a really bad deflationary super cycle here so you know if you think about this Andrew like the best technology companies in the world have literally been training billions of consumers to not really spend money right the whole idea is if you wait tomorrow you'll get more for less whether that's YouTube or Facebook or Google or Amazon the point is that these guys have really conditioned people that you know you you want balance want to actually not be spending that much money because we'll just be giving you more and more value and when you on top of that then add to the fact that the Fed comes in pumps in all of this money that has to go someplace consumers respond by picking these companies that give them more for less that's where all the profits get trapped as a result a handful of companies really disproportionately perform and inflate the equity markets the companies had actually traffic in traditional business models that don't necessarily have technically as Seoul get decimated and so that cycle is just going to get exacerbated and exacerbated so in the real world things might contain get cheaper for the future now that's a very interesting point but what do we do what is the right way to allocate stimulus money so that it is proportionally spent or used throughout our economy honestly in my piñon I think this is an impossible task for anyone but especially for our politicians they are being asked to come up with a highly complex solution to a highly complex problem that has so many variables but to also do it while hundreds of billions of people are watching not to mention that they have to come up with a solution on a frantic timeline because so many people need help immediately let's see what tomate had to say when asked about this Jamaat though here's the question and I'm not advocating the Fed doesn't do these things because I don't think that there's many other options the problem is that it's a blunt instrument to a large degree and while you would love to make the the stimulus if you will more effective or get it to the right people we don't have a system of government that necessarily is at least you can or is willing to do that well we have to figure out how to break this cycle of deflation and when we're a debtor when you are a debtor the best thing for you is some form of inflation or at least to minimize the effects of deflation and the reality is that we do have a system and you don't have to pick who the quote-unquote right people are the right people is every citizen of the United States and I've said this before but this is a point in time where direct fiscal stimulus should be going to the hands of US taxpayers it is the most effective way to blunt is unnecessarily rampant asset inflation in the markets and at least balance it with incentives in the hands of consumers to buy things and if you don't break this cycle and teach a new pattern of behavior we're going to be looking at a japanese-style deflationary period where we'll have ten years of unemployment the economy will just be stagnant and we'll wonder why equity markets keep going to all-time highs when it doesn't actually map to what you see in the real world on a day to day basis we would say that that kind of the Greens actually happen when the Fed just signaled that they were going to do something you're absolutely right we've calmed the markets down enough where the best companies could go and actually get the capital that they needed but then if you've actually separated and look at it now the feds primary and secondary facilities aren't necessarily going to affect or help the best companies because in order to sort of all apply for these programs you need to have you need to go through a whole bunch of Hoops you need to sign up for you know supervision on executive compensation you are going to self-select at least in their primary facility for probably the worst performing companies and when you go and buy in CX you're buying baskets of things that also contain a bunch of these zombie companies the best companies can and will continue to sell finance in the markets by themselves and yeah you're right the Fed did calm the waters but by now actually stepping in and spending more and injecting more capital what you're going to see is the equity markets rip higher you're going to see the credit markets continue to basically go towards negative rates and none of that stuff does anything to actually fix the economy and so asset inflation we learned this from 2008 to now asset inflation does not solve income disparity it actually doesn't solve full employment it doesn't do any of the things we needed to do for it to be a robust economy what it does is allow people who play in the financial markets to make money those don't trickle down to normal people and until we actually admit that to ourselves and until we realized that this dogmatic idea that inflation is bad that's a dated idea we're not gonna move forward and so I appreciate the fact that the Fed did something I think it was critical I think it was great that they said it but now actually acting and pumping in all of this money on top of the money that's already gone in is creating a deflationary super cycle in the United States that is not helpful consumers are not going to spend hey they are going to say those are some powerful words from Chema as soon as the Fed signals that they're gonna do something the market shoot up even though everything else is going negative this is literally the worst possible outcome because s-sure mod mentioned asset inflation does not solve income disparity it does not get us closer to full employment it does not give the average consumer confidence to go out there and start spending again at the same rate which is what drives our economy and millions of US businesses so I'm hoping that moving forward our government realizes this and really starts to trust what some of the great minds of today are saying and I think they will I think eventually they will get it right and at some point after that the US economy and the stock market will regress back to being aligned and moving in tandem again there has to be either the stock market coming down to meet the reality of the situation that we're in or the reality of the economy has to improve to meet those high expectations that we're seeing in stocks right now but there's definitely a disconnect at the moment that's being driven by our central bank so I know there's a lot of people out there that are wondering how long this economic downturn is going to last what time frame are we putting and how long is everything going to take to recovery I think we have a long way to go in my opinion first of all the economy is not gonna recover with everyone sitting at home right so before anything else we have to figure out how to get people back to work safely and get them spending money again and consuming but this is a tall task because so many things haven't fully played out yet things that are difficult to measure like how certain businesses or event-driven businesses like concert stadiums theaters are going to open up with social distancing what the revenue is gonna look like if they're gonna change prices or not the willingness of people to get back out there and enjoy these highly social crowded areas where you are essentially having all these anonymous interactions with people that you don't really know all so let's think about what's happening with so many of these businesses I don't think that as a business you can shut down two older employees to go home tell your customers that you're closed down and then one day on a random day open back up and expect to have all of your employees and all of your customers running through your door again I mean it takes time to do that what do they say it takes about 30 days to form a new habit well currently right now at the moment everyone is forming new habits of spending money and saving money because they just don't know what's gonna happen or if we're gonna get a second wave or what not that is it for this video guys thank you so much for watching look out for the next video in my chammak poly Hypatia series and if you'll enjoyed this video please hit the like button subscribe to my channel if you haven't yet and let me know what you think about your mouth in the comment section thank you
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