저자: BernardodeGarcia · 외국인
요약 보기
나스닥 연초 대비 약 25% 하락 속 엔비디아와 인텔을 비교. 엔비디아는 혁신성·성장성 강조, 단기 역풍(암호화폐 연동 수요 감소, 실적 가이던스 하향) 경고하며 조정 후 반등 가능성 제시. 인텔은 밸류에이션 매력과 배당을 들어 가치투자자에게 유리하다고 평가. 9월 연준 회의 등 단기 충격 가능성을 언급해 지금은 본격 매수 시기가 아니며 분할매수를 권함.
다듬은 글
Este texto está en inglés, así que lo reviso y lo edito en inglés, sin traducirlo.
Ladies and gentlemen, it's no surprise, we all know, that the Nasdaq index has fallen approximately 25 percent so far this year. Many stocks, especially semiconductors, have experienced even larger sell-offs throughout the year. In addition, concerns about a possible prolonged recession, other macroeconomic pressures that will affect the market in general, manufacturing problems, and geopolitical risk factors with China and Taiwan have also led investors to abandon these stocks.
In this video, we're going to talk about Nvidia and Intel, which in my opinion are the leading chip companies today. We also have other examples, but these two have experienced significant sell-offs, and their stocks are trading very low, down 41 and 53 percent this year respectively.
So, which of these two major players is a better investment right now? Should we talk about Nvidia or Intel? Indeed, because right now Intel is at $29.
Well, let's start with Nvidia, if you agree. The first thing we have to say is that it has a truly proven capacity to innovate. As we were talking about years ago, this is one of the factors I rate very highly when considering an investment in a technology company.
If it's a technology company but it doesn't have the capacity to innovate, or it hasn't been proven that it can, well, it doesn't really interest me, right? That obviously means more than just developing an excellent product or service. It means having a trick and taking over the market that way, you could say.
Nvidia has demonstrated its innovative capabilities by repeatedly improving its graphics processing units, or GPUs, which its founder Jensen Huang created years ago. Those highly sought-after computer chips power practically all gaming devices, cloud servers, and cockpit displays in cars and airplanes. Today it's almost as necessary as the air we breathe for our technology and also for our economy, if I'm not mistaken.
Obviously, solid customer demand has boosted Nvidia's revenue. In 2016 it was generating some $4.1 billion, and by 2021 it was generating almost $27 billion. That's no small feat.
Of course, sales skyrocketed after the start of the pandemic, since people were investing in offices, computers, homes, and games. All of our lives ended up revolving more around microchips, the metaverse, and everything else than going to the mall. And digital native companies needed more capacity for their own servers.
Nvidia took advantage of the change in consumer behavior, selling its products at higher prices and generating a gross profit margin of over 62 percent for three consecutive years. In fact, Nvidia's hard-to-replicate products have allowed the company to grow earnings per share at a compound annual growth rate of over 32 percent over the last ten years.
It's true that if we take another look at Nvidia's stock, it seems to tell us there are problems. There are headwinds, especially in the short term, as economies have reopened and consumer behavior has changed rapidly. Let's look at a 15-minute chart to see how it's changing right now after this huge sell-off yesterday. We were down 10 percent on the video.
As we said, Nvidia's sales were strongly correlated with cryptocurrency prices, because they helped and still help people obtain digital assets by mining Bitcoin and so on. This is a warning sign for Nvidia right now. They could reduce sales, and in fact they already are, as they warned in their last quarterly results. And we ended up cutting their forecasts and earnings estimates for the next few quarters even further.
Yes, now we're talking about Intel. For those who want to invest long-term, this could be seen as a tremendous opportunity to acquire shares of this innovative company at extraordinarily low prices. We're talking about prices, not formation, but we're still trading at almost 40.
Look, here we have a forward price of 38.65. So it's not cheap, but realize that with the whole situation, we jumped ahead a couple of years, and now we're simply going backwards. What does all this mean? Let's put it on screen. Imagine this is the trend for Nvidia. During the pandemic it skyrocketed, and now, let's say, we have to return to normal.
Right now, in my opinion, for Nvidia we're at this point. No, we're not yet in the zone where we should be. Excuse me, I think we're at this point. We've already passed, let's say, the average price at which Nvidia shares should be trading. We haven't reached the bottom yet, in my opinion, but in one or two quarters, I think we have a lot of upside.
But this was for the Nvidia section. If you're more oriented toward value investing, you say, "Bernardo, how are you going to buy a semiconductor company at 40 that's totally cyclical, with everything that's going on, with inflation, when you have a forward P/E of 13? What do you say about Intel?"
Intel is and has been struggling due to weak demand and competitive margins, especially in its server and desktop product categories. The company's second-quarter performance was certainly very disappointing, with revenues plummeting 17% year over year to below $15.5 billion and adjusted earnings per share falling 79%.
At the same time, this chipmaker has a valuation that hardly depends on growth, and its shares are trading at only 13 times next year's expected earnings. Intel also pays a fairly reasonable dividend yield of 4.98%. It's good that the company shouldn't reduce its dividend payout and should concentrate its resources on growth initiatives. That's a question on which investors in general, and markets in general, seem to be divided.
But Intel's ability to support the payout has improved thanks to the financing options derived from the new Chips and Science Act recently passed by Joe Biden's Democratic administration. That could provide some short-term protection if volatility continues to affect the overall market. Intel is also preparing itself to improve its competitive position in key categories, a move to secure early access to next-generation semiconductor manufacturing machines.
On the holdings swaps screen we have right here, it's up 154 percent today. This could suggest it has some promising chip designs that, in theory, could help it start to recover in a few years.
Historically speaking, every time we've seen Intel at these prices, it seems to have been a good opportunity. Look at the monthly chart: we have to go back to 2017 to find Intel at these $29. Every time Intel, over the last four years or so, has fallen below $38 or $40, it has been a pretty clear buying opportunity, and it has given us some short-term stabilization.
The chip product portfolios also seem weaker than Nvidia's, and its recent slowdown is more dramatic. As we understand the corrections in Intel's stock, of almost 80 percent, the selling was running out of steam. Meanwhile, Nvidia trades at approximately 41 times next year's expected earnings. We're using a forward multiple, as we said. Right now, the sales multiple is 12.6 times expected sales, even after these big liquidations.
The more conservative valuation of Intel makes it, in my opinion, more attractive to value investors. Apart from its possible turnaround potential, it could make it the best buy in the current market. However, the strengths Nvidia has right now, apart from its GPUs and high-performance chips, which can be used for data centers, artificial intelligence, and basically everything the future holds for us, are hard to match. Without Nvidia, our future would be much slower. In recent years, it has helped the industry grow at a much faster pace and generate higher margins. It can probably continue to do so, as its position and the overall semiconductor industry seem more solid than Intel's.
Nvidia is probably the best stock for growth-oriented investors. But if you're really worried right now, with the kind of volatility we're seeing in the market, and you don't want to buy something so expensive, and you're worried the Nasdaq might keep falling, Nvidia might have to fall a little more.
Intel seems to find itself quite comfortable at these 29-27 levels, although, as you can see, it surprised us by falling below 32. Nvidia, however, could still have a little more room to fall, especially if it breaks these $124 levels. And if it breaks them, we don't really know where the bottom might be.
So if you're more worried about valuations and volatility, Intel might be the best buy for you. If you want something cheap in terms of earnings, Intel is probably the best option for your portfolio. We prefer companies with less conservative valuations and more long-term potential, like Nvidia. The choice between these stocks should depend on each person's appetite and risk tolerance, as well as on the relationship between each company's valuation and our growth prospects.
Also, realize that in my opinion it's not yet time to jump headfirst into both companies. In about seven days we have the Fed meeting, and I expect a pretty big shock. It doesn't matter if you go up 5 percent. I hope that Powell after Jackson Hole isn't the same. Powell before Jackson Hole, after Jackson Hole, he's someone else. Keep thinking about what we're seeing: more and more headlines about big tech companies laying people off. And what happens when tech companies lay people off because they don't need more computers? They're not hiring. You need less demand, and there's not going to be much demand for these kinds of stocks in the coming quarters.
We still have uncertainty with the US, which is threatening China to prevent an invasion of Taiwan, and Xi Jinping wants to be declared president for life next month, and so on. We're not out of the woods yet.
If you want to build a position of 100 shares, I would calmly buy 10, 15, 20, and 25 shares right now, buying the rest as the price falls over time, applying a scaling-in strategy to end up with a good average price. Let's be honest: we'll never be able to buy the top and sell the bottom. That only happens in fairy tales.
Ladies and gentlemen, let me know if you're buying Intel, Nvidia, or Johnson & Johnson, which today reaffirmed its position. They've launched a $5 billion share buyback program, 0.25 percent of their market cap. And the truth is, it's a way of... and where are we headed? I think defense won't hurt us either. Carlos Sobera down here.
What are you buying? What are you not buying? Are you not interested in semi-annual interest? And as always, I decided to give them my vote. Thanks. I like it. Subscribe to the bell icon. Check the links in the video description if you want to invest with me in our private group. I spend a lot of time in it. We chat, exchange ideas and opinions, get exclusive content, and much more. Every time I buy or sell stocks or options, I let you know.
Ladies and gentlemen, as always, I hope you enjoyed it, and we'll say goodbye until next time.
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