저자: AlessioRastani · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인이 급등한 이유는 공매도 세력의 숏 스퀴즈 때문이며, 이는 과거 예측이 맞은 결과라는 주장. 과거 예측 검증: 일주일 전 영상에서 비트코인이 바닥을 쳤다고 주장했고, 개인투자자 다수는 하락을 예상했다고 주장(CNBC 여론조사 64%). 근거 지표: 시카고거래소 데이터상 비상업적 투자자(개인 투기세력)가 비트코인 숏 포지션을 강하게 잡고 있었다고 주장. 구글 트렌드에서 'how to short bitcoin' 검색이 늘었다고 언급. 기술적 분석: 비트코인이 피보나치 61.8% 되돌림 지지선에서 반등했다고 주장. 자체 시간저항 지표상 7월 17~19일 전후가 큰 움직임의 가능성이 높은 시점이라고 제시. 숏 스퀴즈 논리: 공매도 세력의 손절(매수 스톱)이 연쇄적으로 체결되며 가격을 더 밀어올린다고 설명. 이 상승이 대규모 랠리의 시작이라고 주장. 전망: 비트코인이 추가 상승할 것이며, 기존에 3천 달러 또는 0달러, 2천 달러를 말하던 숏 세력이 청산당하고 있다고 주장. 조건·리스크: 영상 내 언급된 명시적 리스크 및 반대 시나리오 제시 없음. 방송인 특유의 확신성 주장이 대부분이며 근거는 주로 차트·심리 지표에 의존. 출연자 전망: 비트코인 단기 추가 상승 강하게 예상, 단 구체적 목표가는 제시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
hey guys alessia estonia leading trader hope you're well guys i don't know about you but i think that christmas has come early for bitcoin and bitcoin investors and in fact if you listen very carefully i think you can hear something can you not listen very carefully and you can probably hear the sound of screams by bitcoin short sellers the people who are betting against bitcoin they're now getting squeezed out yes guys as i'm speaking right now in the last couple of hours and i'm sure you probably noticed it yourself bitcoin has had a dramatic surge a dramatic surge which we in fact predicted would happen about only a couple of days ago we said a big move in fact let me show you let's examine the evidence before i continue here and show you the exact reason why bitcoin is surging and skyrocketing here as you may remember just about a week ago i posted a video and in that video i showed you this i said look it's time to do the opposite of the herd in other words everybody else on bitcoin and i said bitcoin has very likely bottomed that was my shocking prediction now in case you're thinking i'm doing this in a braggadocious way you know to brag no absolutely not i just want to show you the reasons to explain what's really going on here firstly we know that the majority of the dumb money okay the majority of the non-commercials were betting against bitcoin i showed you that in this particular video that i just about a week ago i said look the the dumb money the non-commercials are betting heavily heavily against bitcoin they're short in other words they're opening strong short positions against bitcoin they were expecting bitcoin to drop as you can see here by these figures released from the chicago board of exchange so number one the sentiment was against bitcoin among dumb money according to a cnbc poll and again i mentioned this only a few days ago they found that 64 of people and i showed you this 64 of people expected bitcoin to drop lower they said the bitcoin had not bottomed we disagreed as i mentioned before what is the likelihood how likely is it that the dumb money is correct about bitcoin they were clearly wrong here as jim rogers said guys when everybody is thinking the same thing somebody is not thinking we should at least examine the other side now the other piece of evidence i showed you was that according to google trends people were googling this particular phrase is bitcoin did and the other phrase they were googling was this one how to short bitcoin so these phrases were being searched a lot by folks out there who are essentially trying to short bitcoin now in my video about a few days ago i also showed you this i said what is now the most likely move for bitcoin and i showed you this i said look bitcoin has retraced to a 61.8 fibonacci level which by the way in case let me just show you exactly what i meant by that so if i just do a quick fibonacci retracement tool here there it is there it is guys so you can see that was the level i was showing to you you see i came back to the 61.8 percent retracement held this level really nicely and i said look pay attention now this could be a start of a big major move higher and that of course is what has started and let's not forget the last piece of evidence which is this one i showed you this in my sunday video i said bitcoin's next move will likely happen on this date and i showed you this according to my time resistance indicator my lt time projection indicator the most likely dates for a potential big move as i showed you in the video was between the 15th to 22nd of july peaking around the 17th i showed you this between the 17th to the 19th of july in other words the peak the highest probability time period for this to happen was between the 17th and the 19th of july so guys yes without a doubt this is a phenomenal move and i think this is just the start this is just the start of a major rally in bitcoin in case you're wondering why i think it could go higher here's why let me show you this in case you're not familiar this is what's called a short squeeze and by the way just in case anyone is not familiar with this term that's not the kind of shorts i'm talking about no i'm talking about a short squeeze which in financial terms and i'm sure most of you know this anyway so a short squeeze according to investopedia is a situation in which a heavily shorted stock or commodity or crypto could be a crypto moves sharply higher so it moves sharply higher forcing more short sellers to close out their short positions and adding upward pressure to the stock or commodity or the crypto in other words guys short sellers are being squeezed out they're short positions let me just explain that very briefly by the way if you look in the if you look in the journals the articles online and a whole bunch of nonsense out there in the media they will tell you a whole bunch of nonsensical reasons okay which is nothing to do with the real reason the real reason i just showed you guys is because short sellers the people who are betting against bitcoin had a lot of stops here they're putting the stop losses here again these are buy stops remember that short sellers the only way they can close out their position is by putting a stop loss and that's called a buy stop so what's happening is as bitcoin is hitting these stop losses as it's going higher it's triggering these stop losses these buy stops which short sellers are placed as a result that creates a short squeeze okay and guys what's happening is that these short sellers these very same people who are saying that bitcoin is gonna go to three thousand dollars okay these are the same people by the way who are saying that bitcoin is going to go to zero gonna go to two thousand yes guys these guys are being destroyed their positions are being taken out and you know what they deserve it guys i look forward to seeing you guys in my next video update very soon thanks a lot
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