저자: Le · 외국인
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테슬라는 2021년 고점 이후 a파동 하락, b파동 반등의 c파동 마무리 단계로 보며, 2025년 말 무렵 b파동 고점 후 대폭락(시장 조정/경기침체) 가능성을 제시. 단기적으로는 4파동 조정이 350~360 부근까지 열려 있고, 이후 5파동으로 530~600 상승을 기대. 엔비디아는 200일선 지지 후 ABC 조정의 마무리 국면으로 보며 129~130 돌파 시 갭(약 140) 메우기 가능성 언급. 장기 강세 관점은 유지하나 2025년 경기침체/증시 고점 우려를 제기.
다듬은 글
hi this Le you hope you're well welcome to a brand new video update on the chart of Tesla Tesla stock and also in this video I'll cover briefly the chart of Nvidia later in this video as well so before we do that though I want to cover the chart of Tesla's stock look at the potential wave counts and also we look at this particular Ed wave model I will explain where it potentially could be in this eled wave model so let's go on to the charts and discuss Tesla and Nvidia all right guys welcome back let me just say before I begin that I've noticed that quite a lot of people who watch my videos on Tesla and Nvidia uh that you probably have not yet subscribed to my channel so if you haven't yet subscribed I would really appreciate it guys if you hit the Subscribe button and also please enable notifications for future video updates okay uh let's begin with the charts uh I'm going to talk about Tesla and then briefly we'll discuss Nvidia later at the end of the video as far as Tesla is concerned I will in a few moments uh so later in this video I'll discuss where I think we potentially could be in the overall bigger picture one of the reasons why I apply Ed wave theory is because it's the only method of analysis that gives you context no other method of analysis gives you an idea of the bigger picture or indeed of context and that's why we apply Elliot wave theory and also because Elliot waves are based on probabilities and risk models if you watch my previous videos then I'm sure you know that I don't pretend that I have some kind of crystal ball nobody has a crystal ball nobody can predict the future Elliot waves are not about predicting the future they're about understanding what is probable what is likely okay so not what is certain guys if you want certainty you're not going to find it anywhere in charts or market analysis before I begin let me also mention very quickly that some of you watch my video back in the summer uh so probably spring or summer of last year you probably know that I was not very optimistic or positive on Tesla in fact that was quite bearish uh on Tesla back at the time when the price of Tesla was here and of course the reason was that Tesla had failed to break through resistance and the charts and the structure just was not sufficiently bullish for me at the time and I have no regrets about that I have to follow my rules however in November after Tesla finally managed to break through resistance you can see here so in November of last year Tesla managed to with Force break through those two important resistance levels on the chart uh 299 to 300 and then at 270 because it broke through that resistance as you can see there then I changed my mind it became bullish again and fact here's what I said on the 15th of November in my video at the time so I think the wave three could extend higher to this region here again 395 $400 approximately and then we could see a pullback in what could be a wave four and then a wave five wave five taking us eventually to about 450 all right guys welcome back and thanks for watching that video as you heard in that video from from the 15th of November here's a screenshot of that video as you can see my expectation for the Wave 3 and 5 was actually uh quite modest I was looking for the wave three to extend to 400 and the wave five after a pullback for the wave four to extend to 450 these other the levels by the way 450 was the level that Tesla actually reached uh quite recently as we can see here so Tesla actually did manage to Rally quite nicely to the 161.8% golden ratio extension that a blue line at just near 450 and what that means is that the wave three is what we're looking at here and this is our most recent potential wave four okay I'll talk about wave five in a few minutes but let me just show you the bigger picture the bigger picture shows that this drop that occurred from 2021 okay so this is 2021 high this drop to 2023 was a likely a-wave a corrective a-wave down followed by a b-wave rally and b-waves as we are also corrective in structure and we can see this is a b-wave this would take us eventually likely to much higher levels again as long as we stay above I think as long as Tesla stays above 300 or 330 we're dealing with a large b-wave taking us up there to that region and as we can see B waves are also composed as we can see in yellow they're composed of smaller ABC waves that's the A wve b-wave and the c-wave within this larger b-wave structure as shown in blue so once again let me put this on the chart a wve down a large Mega a-wave down and a large Mega b-wave up itself composed of ABC waves okay and that means within this larger b-wave or should say large c-wave of the b-wave okay a large ABC structure So within this c-wave within this yellow c-wave where are we well the way I see it I think that we're quite likely this is our smaller degree wave 1 smaller degree wave two smaller degree wave three then this be a wave four pullback okay so we're currently seeing the wave four pullback this wave four pullback by the way could be anywhere could complete anywhere in this region uh I would say the recent low that it made there just under 400 to potentially 361 350 perhaps and the 21 weekly moving average uh so that's the Blue Line we see there on the chart okay for the wave four and eventually a wave five so a wave five taking us perhaps the next several months likely by the spring or the summer period I would say the wave five could extend higher into this approximate region there uh so yeah between 530 528 that's the 2618 per golden ratio extension there shown as the Brown Line to potentially the 300% extension there that's the next Blue Line that would be about 57 78 or 580 close to the 600 level so I would say the wave five wave five could be anywhere in this region between uh yeah the wave five of the seawave could be between 530 to 580 to 600 approximately okay and that could take us several months to complete so that's what I have there on the chart uh for the likely structure for the seawave before we continue let me just say this portion of the video is sponsored by radex markets so if you're looking for a reliable trading platform with fast execution and great customers service then look no further than radex markets go on the link in the description and apply for an account and remember guys any money we get from sponsors we give to charity one more time I think that the higher probability is we're completing the wave four correction as shown there on the chart the wave four correction after the wave three top that we made there so wave three top there recently then a wave four correction is what we're seeing here the wave four could be anywhere within 350 360 to the 21 weekly moving average the blue line which is approximately 350 and then once we complete this wave four then a likely wave five towards 530 580 to 600 uh of course if if Tesla bottoms sooner and breaks through 440 that would mean we're starting the wave five much sooner so if Tesla manages with Force to break through 440 that means we're starting the wave five rally to 530 to 580 to 600 much sooner but actually my personal point of view uh based on what I'm seeing on the chart I think that it's quite likely that as long as as long as Tesla stays below 440 greenish line I think that we have a bit more of a lower low to go on Tesla to this region as I explained for the wave four so as long as we stay below 440 there is a risk there's a probability actually we could test this region between this Orange Line 360 to about 350 before we complete the wave four potentially in this region there and then finally once we complete wave four then it move up to the 530 to potentially 580 to 600 region there for the wave five for the c-wave of B to complete okay for this yellow c-wave of B to complete within as I mentioned within this larger degree structure and this region okay so that's what I think is quite probable and likely and yes going to this particular diagram the eled wave model I think that this on the balance of probabilities I think that this is where we likely are on the structure on the elevated model so if this was our the high we made back in 2021 and then the big drop for the a-wave which took us to 2023 then the big Rally from 2023 to 2024 2025 there okay and that's the b-wave that I explained and yeah I think as far as we are concerned the probability is that we're completing the c-wave of the b-wave so I think probably we're here more or less so I think we're completing uh the final waves the final structures of the rally in the c-wave of B before b-wave then tops I think we could see a potential top in this b-wave sometime by the end of this year it could be in the middle or perhaps by the end of this year and by the way in case you're thinking does that mean once the b-wave tops then we could see a big larger degree seawave crash and drop yes that is correct if you're wondering why well go and watch my previous video about the stock market and that yield curve inversion that I showed which spells out a likely recession in the economy and a likely top in the stock market sometime perhaps in the next several months likely this year most of the data suggests that we're heading towards a likely recession uh perhaps in the next 12 months and a top in the stock market likely this year by the end of this year in 2025 by the way let me just say this I realize some of the people watching this video probably will not like what I just said in this video about the price of Tesla likely topping in this b-wave in other words likely seeing a top in the b-wave the C wave of B sometime this year they won't like that they will say no you have no idea what you're talking about the SEO the price of Tesla will just go up forever forever and ever the price of Tesla will just keep going up all right guys listen if you if you actually agree with that point of view that the price will just extend forever and ever higher based on fundamentals fundamentals that nonsense go ahead follow that idea if you want to but just remember those were the same imbeciles the same num skulls who did not see that there was a major top coming in the price of Tesla in 2021 so those same people who said the price of Tesla will just keep going up forever those are the same people who said that back in the year 2021 before that major drop which occurred dropping the price of Tesla by about 60 to 70% by the way those same people who said the price of Tesla will go up forever were the same people who at this point in 2023 said the price of Tesla will crash even further to $50 go ahead and watch my previous video go and watch my previous video from November I showed you the comments the comments I was getting at the time in 2023 at this time when we were bullish so I was bullish on Tesla at this point but the comments on my videos was no the price of Tesla will not go higher it will drop further to below 100 to below $50 okay so just remember that that sentiment is what drives the market not fundamentals all right guys so that's what I have on the chart of Tesla before I go on to Nvidia again one more time I'm still remaining bullish on Tesla so I think as long as Tesla remains Above This 21 weekly moving average as long as we stay above the 21 weekly and the 330 level I still think the higher probability is for the wave five once the wave four completes I'm still looking for that wave five for a move eventually higher okay other words for a move eventually to 530 580 600 levels some still remaining for the next several months I'm still remaining bullish let's go on the chart of Nvidia now I don't have a lot to say about Nvidia here because I think it's quite simple to explain so I don't want to make this video too long so as far as Nvidia is concerned I think the the path of lease resistance here is still to the upside again we're still remaining in uptrend yes I do realize that Nvidia has broken this uptrend line here but overall we're still pulling back to the 200 daily moving average there it's a daily chart of Nvidia and we can see we're still pretty much in an uptrend we're making higher highs higher lows and we're just hugging that 200 daily moving average there and I think that this recent drop here this recent drop was an ABC correction a-wave b-wave c-wave to the 200 daily moving average there we're holding that support at the moment we're holding support there at the 200 daily moving average and the 382 Fibonacci extension there about 117 we just hit that level and bounced so even if video were to extend a bit lower let's say to 111 110 I still see this as a larger ABC correction so even if Nvidia were to drop a bit lower to let's say 111 112 110 again I'm still seeing this is a large ABC correction before the seawave of this ABC correction then completes and then likely rally higher uh for a new move to higher highs so in other words in a nutshell I'm still seeing Nvidia here pulling back to support at the 200 daily moving average there uh and I think once Nvidia gets back above the trend line once Nvidia manages to get above 129 130 if we get a nice green bar rally above the trend line above 130 that could be a strong sign that like the nvidia's bottom there okay and I think we could then fill this gap on the chart there's a gap here let me just zoom in you can see this large gap that formed recently on the chart of Nvidia there it is so I think this Gap could fill in the next several weeks uh again gaps don't always get filled especially on stocks so there's no guarantee this Gap is going to get filled and I think it's quite probable that once Nvidia gets above this trend line 129 130 uh then I think we could go ahead and fill this Gap near the 140 level there if we go on the weekly chart of Nvidia so notice that on the weekly chart it's quite interesting that we're just holding that 50 simple moving average on the chart there so Nvidia even though it broke that trend line notice where it dropped down to it dropped down to the 50 simple moving average it's grayish white line and we held this level and bounced now that does not necessarily mean that Nvidia has bottomed although I do think it is in the process of bottoming so I do think we're getting close to a potential bottom here in Nvidia so even if Nvidia were to extend a bit lower to let's say again 111 112 110 I think that we're in the process of bottoming in this c-wave of this ABC correction okay so a b c I think we're in the process of potentially bottoming in the seawave all I'm waiting for for confirmations I would like to see confirmation of a bottom by a move i' like to see a nice green bar some Rally or close Above This resistance about 129 130 once Nvidia manages to hold support and then get above 130 that would be a strong indication of a potential bottom in in the price and the correction and a likely sign that we could potentially rally to new highs above the levels that we formed last year okay that actually is my higher probability expectation for NVIDIA so at the moment I do not see a top uh on Nvidia that's really what I have here on the chart of Nvidia let me just also mention a couple of things firstly if you haven't yet joined our membership please do so we covered the stock markets and Bitcoin and gold and if you're not a member you can join the link in the description uh plus also I've made a video about why we use Elliot waves if you haven't yet seen that go ahead and you can see it right there uh click on that video it's a very important video but I want to thank you very much indeed bye for now
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