저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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연준의 금리 인상과 양적완화가 인플레이션을 잡지 못한 채 경기 침체를 낳는 스태그플레이션 구조라고 주장. 실질금리가 여전히 낮고 정부 재정적자가 인플레이션의 원인이며, 상품가격은 조정 후 재차 신고점을 갈 것이라 봄. 주택은 가격 하락에도 월 상환액 부담이 커져 위기가 온다고 경고. 명시적 자산 매매 추천은 없음.
다듬은 글
all the costs of home ownership are going way up and Americans most of them they don't buy the house they buy the monthly payment doesn't matter what the house costs what matters is what do they have to pay every month to live there and that's going to go way up even as prices go down and of course the falling prices creates a big problem for the people who own homes who have borrowed against the homes or a big problem for banks who have loaned against those homes and now the homes lose value and and the the guys that that live there don't want to stay there and now they have to sell these homes in a market where mortgage rates are way up and so people can't afford to buy them so it's it's a real disaster uh that that that's coming in in housing but it's not going to reduce inflation inflation is going to go up even as the economy uh goes down so you know the FED has has put us into a box and there is no way out and I've been warning about this for more than a decade I knew exactly where we would end up I just didn't know how long it would take to get there or maybe the exact route we would take but I knew where we would ultimately end up and that is exactly where we are what is your solution to that do you think we should have never had QE should we just not have a Federal Reserve to begin with what's uh what's the Peter shift solution to uh this um yes we would be better off had we never created the Federal Reserve in 1913 but you know it's possible that we could have created something even worse uh but but you know the way they originally envisioned the Federal Reserve wasn't that bad the problem is they they changed it and they you know because the original Federal Reserve Act the Federal Reserve wasn't even allowed to buy us treasuries it was prohibited by law from even owning them and of course the original Federal Reserve notes were backed by gold uh 40% gold 100% commercial paper and the mission of the Federal Reserve was to have an elastic money supply and what that meant was when the economy expanded they would expand the money supply along with the economy but then when the economy contracted they were supposed to contract the money supply so but we don't do that I mean we do the opposite of that what the FED does now is when the economy is strong they expand the money supply and then when it's weak they expand it faster right so it's not a last you know when that switch occurred when did we start doing the exact opposite of of the initial you know I don't know exactly but certainly probably a during the Depression you know everything started you know with Roosevelt in the 30s and then and then really kicked into gear uh in the 60s with the Great Society programs and the war on poverty and the Vietnam War and you know that's why we had the big Outburst of you know price inflation you know in the 1970s and it's going to be worse now in fact I think the the last year or two was already worse than the worst of the 1970s because when they go back and say hey inflation was 10 11 12% in the 70s and it's only 7 8% now that's apples to oranges because the cpis are different I mean if you took the 1970 CPI and you used it to calculate the CPI today you had the same metrics we would have had 15 to 20% inflation last couple years much higher or if you took our CPI and brought it back and redid the 7s numbers using the CPI of today they would have had inflation maybe no higher than that 6 7% something like that so we're we're already worse but we're just getting started and you remember the way they were able to bring that inflation to an end was Paul bul or in 1980 who allowed real interest rates to get to a positive 6 or 7% the highest inflation got was 1981 at 13 A5 by CPI and we had interest rates at 20 you know we're we're nowhere near there we're still got interest rates half the inflation rate and where's the cuts the government spending I mean you're not going to re in inflation without getting to the source of inflation which is government deficit spending we just passed this ominous spend Omnibus foran slip Omnibus spending Bill uh you know that's all financed by inflation you can't fight inflation and create inflation at the same time uh so I I don't see any end in sight to the inflation spiral that's that's only only now just getting started and and that's why it's so important that people act to protect themselves because the vast majority of people are going to get eviscerated by really amounts to a tax I mean this is how the government is paying for all the programs all the spending we're not getting anything for free from government everything government gives you cost money and the way most people are going to pay for the cost of government is through higher prices and uh we've only seen the the beginning of the price increases that are coming um so you mentioned the importance of uh fiscal spending there and and the Great Society lbj's big big welfare push being partly to blame for the inflation and then Reagan's welfare Cuts helping to reain it in so let's say let's say Jerome pal you know holds true and keeps raising interest rates but then President Biden you know continues various stimulus programs unemployment welfare things um in that sort of scenario could you still could you get Rising inflation um Rising CPI um despite interest rates also Rising you know given what the oh fiscally fiscally what oh sure and remember interest rates are another price too I mean if I'm a business you know I've got raw material costs I got labor costs I got rent and I got interest if I've borrowed money and as my interest rates are going up I mean that's another cost that I going to look to pass on to my customers through higher prices so all else being equal Rising interest rates are adding to the inflation problem the way Rising interest rates are supposed to slow inflation is by slowing spending and increasing savings that's what has to happen but that hasn't happened if you look at consumer consumption patterns they're spending like crazy the savings rate is near an all-time record low it has collapsed and credit card debt Mortgage Debt Auto debt student alltime record high so the rising rates have done nothing to alter consumer behavior and so they're going to do nothing to bring down inflation the only thing that's happened is we've had a pullback in commodity prices oil prices other things that that moved up the most the quickest they've pulled back and so that's creating some hope that maybe we've seen the worst of the inflation and now it's coming back down but no those prices are going to consolidate and hit new highs probably even this year and the other thing that's causing some Hope Is that real estate prices are finally coming down but that doesn't matter right real estate prices are not even part of the CPI what's part of the CPI owner's equivalent rent so and you know that still has a long way to go up but the other factors that are there utilities are in there insurance is in there maintenance costs are in there all those things are going to go up so even if the you know the price of a house goes down let's say a house that was 400,000 comes down to 300,000 it's actually going to be more expensive to buy the $300,000 house than it was to buy a $400,000 house a couple of years ago because the mortgage rate is much higher your insurance cost is much higher your maintenance your property tax I mean all the costs of home ownership are going way up and Americans most of them they don't buy the house they buy the monthly payment doesn't matter what the house costs what matters is what do they have to pay every month to live there and that's going to go way up even as prices go down and of course the falling prices creates a big problem for the people who own homes who have borrowed against the homes or a big problem for banks who have loaned against those homes and now the homes lose value and um the guys that that live there don't want to stay there and now they have to sell these homes in a market where mortgage rates are way up and so people can't afford to buy them so it's it's a real disaster uh that that that's coming in in housing but it's not going to reduce inflation inflation is going to go up even as the econ economy uh goes down
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