저자: AlexandreGerbier · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인 단기 상승 기대와 FOMC 의사록 해석, 미국 경제지표 일정을 다룬 2023년 7월 6일 트레이딩 브리핑이다. 결론: 비트코인은 3만1,000~3만1,300달러 목표로 단기 상승 기대, 금·유로·파운드 등은 별도 포지션 운용. [비트코인] 3만430달러 부근 유동성 확보 후 3만1,000달러, 3만1,300달러를 목표로 한 단기 상승 시나리오를 제시했다. 중간 조정 가능성을 인정하면서도 전반적으로 강세 구조로 본다. 이더리움은 상대적으로 덜 긍정적이라고 언급했다. [미국 증시] S&P500은 약세 흐름이 강화돼 4,320포인트 또는 그 이하까지 조정 가능성을 언급했고, 관련 포지션 가능성을 시사했다. 나스닥·다우 포지션은 수익 중이라고 밝혔다. [유럽 증시] CAC와 DAX는 하락 추세를 보고 숏 포지션을 유지 중이라고 밝혔다. [외환·원자재] GBP/USD 롱, EUR/USD 숏 포지션을 유지한다고 했다. 금은 1,870포인트 방향 하락 시나리오를 제시했고, 미국 원유는 52달러 부근 하락 추세를 언급하며 재고 발표를 주시했다. [FOMC 의사록] 추가 금리 인상 가능성(7월 26일 인상 확률 약 88.7%)을 재확인했고, 노동시장 완화 필요성과 긴축 기조 유지를 언급했다. 경기침체 위협을 상대적으로 가볍게 보는 점은 우려 요인으로 지적했다. [경제지표 일정] 7월 6일 ADP 고용, 수출입, 실업수당청구, 서비스 PMI, ISM 비제조업 PMI, JOLTS, 원유 재고가 예정돼 있고, 다음날 시간당 임금, 농업 고용, 실업률 발표를 주목했다. [블랙록 발언] 래리 핑크가 비트코인을 국제적 가치저장 수단이자 안전자산으로 언급한 발언을 소개했다. 다만 ETF 판매 목적의 커뮤니케이션일 수 있다고 덧붙였다. [리스크] 지표가 예상과 크게 다르면 변동성이 커질 수 있다고 경고했다. 디스코드 유료 채널 홍보가 포함돼 있다.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone! I hope you're all doing well. We're back this morning for another trading session with lots of interesting things to discuss. We'll start with a technical overview of the markets, given the significant volatility we're experiencing and expect to see even more this weekend. Next, we'll review the FO MC meeting that took place last night at 8 PM.
Following that, we'll look at today's and tomorrow's economic calendar, highlighting several catalysts. Finally, we'll discuss the arbitrage statements from BlackRock's SIO, who spoke about Bitcoin. Frankly, what he said was incredibly interesting, so we'll delve into all of that in detail today. Before we begin, as usual, I encourage you to subscribe if you haven't already, like this video, and most importantly, join the Discord server.
You'll find the link in the description. Alright, let's get started! We'll dive right into the heart of the matter with Bitcoin being slightly down this morning, which will... to head straight towards $31,000 as we said yesterday afternoon. We'll look at that in detail right after this. For the moment, the Alps are a little more in the red, but I think they should go back up.
They should follow Bitcoin depending on what happens. So, there's a slight imbalance this morning in the crypto market, but nothing serious. As for the Ferrengrine index, at 56 today, we've lost a little confidence in the market simply because Bitcoin has come back towards $30,000 and hasn't managed to definitively break through $31,000.
Also, the hype around ETFs is simply running out of steam. Regarding long/short ratios, we remain fairly balanced on the daily chart, as you can see. So, while it updates, we 're still on the 55-year chart, so there's still a fairly significant sense of indecision in the market. It's true that in the short term, well, if we look at the 5-minute chart, as I just showed you, on the 5-minute chart we have long positions that are mostly in the market.
Why? What's happening? Well, the price is rising. People are buying, then selling, then selling, then selling. So that's quite interesting. A very good reaction from Bitcoin, by the way, since last night, since yesterday afternoon. Remember yesterday afternoon when we were together during the trading session?
I told you, "Okay, we're falling, we're going to try for 32,200 and it's going to react." What did I tell you? I told you, " Look what happened, we came to clean up, we came to collect liquidity around $30,430.20. Now we're going to have to redirect ourselves towards $31,000 to also collect liquidity." So we simply made that move.
Okay, so we weren't positioned in that one, but we... was able to position itself on this, so a very nice position, a very, very nice position. So this morning we potentially opted for what was presented in the VIP morning trading session for a repositioning. If there was a small retracement, it didn't happen, so we're continuing in this first position with the target of $31,000 and then $31,300.
Bitcoin is in a very nice bullish configuration today. What's interesting is that we still have quite a bit of volume, there's intensity. Okay, when we look at the open interest, we see that it's following as well. There's intensity in the market, so that's rather positive. And so, as I was saying this morning during the VIP morning trading session, there's a good probability that we'll be able to reach $ 31,000 or even $31,300 during the day.
Now, be careful, that doesn't mean we're going to go there in a straight line. It's very possible. So now I'm going to We can eliminate that since we didn't see the first retracement, but it's entirely possible that we'll now target this zone, go back to test the break-off structure, and recover the FVG before aiming for 31300.
Obviously, we're not going to trade Bitcoin in a straight line, so for the moment we're staying in a bullish configuration. We're continuing to maintain our long positions towards these different targets. And I want to make it clear that this is n't investment advice for Ethereum. So, if there's a good reaction there too, but I'm still a little less bullish on Ether.
I find it less interesting, contrary to what I told you at the beginning of the week, when I thought Ethereum could do great things. This week we had Bitcoin dominance, which was retracing, and we had an Ethereum/ BTC pair that was quite bullish. In the end, this scenario was completely canceled out, so I'm a little disappointed with what we saw, with what Ethereum showed us at the beginning of the week.
I'm a little disappointed, so I'm... Keep an eye on it, but not necessarily with a setup or interesting configuration to take a position on at the moment. Otherwise, regarding the stop-losses, we're really enjoying some great trades. I'm thinking in particular of the ING trade, which we completely validated.
A really, really great trade with a RR of 3.4. For those who want to know more and see all our trades, it's happening on the Discord server. You have the link in the description. So, that's it for the crypto market. There are going to be quite a few opportunities, quite a lot to do on the crypto market this week, this weekend.
So, once again, do n't hesitate to join the Discord server; that's where everything happens. On the traditional financial markets, now on GBP/USD, as you know, we've repositioned ourselves long. We've reinforced our long position on the H4 timeframe with a bullish target. So, for the moment, it's going very, very well.
We were a little hesitant at the beginning, but now it seems to be taking off for good. So that's a very, very good thing, and on the EUR/USD pair, conversely, we're still shorted for the moment. These are the two gems we're closely monitoring this week. There are some small setups that might emerge at certain times, for example, on the GBP/USD, which we took a long position on at the beginning of the week, and on which we also had a great time.
But it's mainly on these two forex pairs that we'll be trading. On the gold side, over the 12 hours, we're still in our bearish trade, heading towards 1870 points. A nice, very quick, very brief test of the structure yesterday afternoon, to which we reacted immediately to head back down. And in the shorter term, we're taking small positions on gold that allow us to simply capture daily profits within this large movement.
So I haven't noted them all down for you because the one you see on the screen is the one I sent you, and it There's Matteo's too, so Matteo also sent you some gold trades. There was this position that was sent to you on gold, and there was one here as well. So frankly, a very, very good week on gold.
We're on one, two, three, four, five, six winning positions in one week on gold, even within a single 12-hour medium-term position that is also winning. So on gold, we're taking it from every angle and achieving very, very good performance. For those who were there yesterday afternoon, we repositioned ourselves short, taking liquidity, absorbing liquidity.
We arrived at a bearish reaction, everything we needed to enter well. So, once again, all these positions are shared with you on the Discord server. On the US oil side, however, it's a little more complicated. We're not seeing the initial reaction we had at first. Okay, so the long position initially went very well.
We then reacted perfectly in the zone of FVG, on which we had positioned ourselves for a reversal, and then it actually went back up, quite abruptly, so we'll remain patient, we're staying with the plan, our SL is well positioned this evening at 5 PM, we'll see later, but we'll have the US crude oil inventories, which give us some indications on supply and demand and on the potential continuation of the downward trend in oil prices, since I remind you that on the US market we're rather in a recessionary phase with a return to $52 given the rather significant drop in demand, anyway I won't go back over that, so there you have it.
And finally, to finish with the US stock indices, on the Nasdaq, after a nice boost yesterday, well, we've gone back down, so our position, which is completely in the green, is doing extremely well, and on the Dow Jones it's even better, in fact, on which we 'll soon take our first TP and move up our slab, but frankly, there are some very good results.
Positions on the indices: the SNP 500 isn't currently positioned, but I still find it increasingly weak, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if we were to see a retracement now, with a nice double top and a breakout structure that isn't being validated. It wouldn't surprise me if we were to return towards 4320 points, or even lower, so potentially a positioning is also coming for the SNP 500.
We'll see how we position the Stop Loss then; I'll keep you updated on the Discord server with the details of this position, but the idea would be to find a target in the direction of 4320 points. I'll keep you updated there as well, again on the Discord server; the link is in the description. Finally, regarding the European indices, we continue to short the CAC, which has resumed its downward trend.
We've repositioned ourselves twice, strengthening our position on the structure twice, so it's going wonderfully. And on the DAX, it's noticeably The same thing is happening again; we've been heading down very strongly for the past few days. So overall, very good results once again this week at Blockchain Capital, and very strong performance considering our various positions, which are shared with you daily on the Discord server.
So that's a little update I could give you on the market today. Again, if you want to go into more detail and delve deeper into our different scenarios, positions, and analyses, that's what the Discord server is for. Now we can take a look back at the FOMC minutes from last night. Overall, there weren't necessarily any major new developments.
During the minutes, it was mainly reaffirmed and reiterated that there will be further interest rate hikes in the coming months, particularly as early as July 26th. Currently, we have estimates of an 88.7% chance of a rate increase. Overall, the majority of FOMC members agree on seeking another rate hike, and we can clearly see that.
Here, regarding the Fed's terminal interest rates, during the minutes of the meeting, the need for easing in the labor market was reaffirmed. The labor market is far too inflationary at the moment, and that's why we'll be following the economic data we get today and tomorrow very closely. If you give us a lot of information on this labor market, we'll see it right after.
And the last thing that was said last night, which caught my attention a bit more, concerns the recession. Apparently, the Fed still isn't taking the potential threat of a recession for 2023 seriously, or at least not seriously enough, given the latest economic data showing a recovery in economic activity in certain sectors in the United States.
The meeting considers that today the recession isn't a real threat, and that for the moment, well, it's being put aside a bit, it's not necessarily being taken too seriously. So that concerns me a little because despite Indeed, the most recent data highlights a certain resurgence of economic activity in some sectors.
However, we've had a number of warning signs that have gone off, alerting us to a potential recession during 2023. That's what caught my attention a bit more. But overall, to give you a quick recap of yesterday's FOMC minutes, here are the most important data points we had. It was mainly a reminder and reaffirmation of the restrictive monetary policy that has remained and will remain in place for the coming weeks and months.
To put it simply, that's the key takeaway. So, as I was saying, we can now transition directly to the economic data we'll have today and tomorrow. Today is a very big day, and tomorrow will be too, obviously. That's why I've included two Big trading sessions on the Discord server from 2 PM to 5 PM today and tomorrow, so be there if you want to interpret and follow all these results live and take positions at the same time.
Today, starting at 2:15 PM, we'll have the ADP non-farm payrolls for June in the United States. Job creation is expected to be down. At 2:30 PM, we'll have exports and imports, and at the same time, we'll have the weekly jobless claims, as every Thursday. Then at 3:45 PM, we'll have the services PMI.
So, we're getting some results on the labor market, which shows a need for easing and rebalancing between demand and demand. Next, the services PMI, so we'll have data on economic activity in the services sector, which is very closely linked to what we were just saying. Then, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI, also in terms of economic activity.
Finally, at 4 PM, we'll have the JOLT report on new job openings. So, employment figures are coming up again, and here we're back to labor market data. This is something that will be closely scrutinized, and at 5 PM, as I mentioned earlier, we'll be monitoring crude oil inventories given our positions on the US.
Okay, so we're going to have a very busy day with many catalysts, and therefore probably quite a bit of volatility in the markets. Obviously, we'll be keeping a very close eye on how the dollar performs throughout the day. Okay, so that's for today, and tomorrow will be pretty much the same. Tomorrow we'll have the average hourly wage, job creation in the agricultural sector, and the US unemployment rate.
So, here again, three economic data points that perfectly align with the labor market, and therefore, naturally, results that will be closely scrutinized and will have their share of consequences on the markets. So, if the data meets the estimates, this volatility should have less of an impact on the market because the market will probably have already priced in.
These are the estimates we're relying on. If, however, we get completely different results, then we can expect some rather unusual movements. In short, that will be the big surprise. I want to tell you again about this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon, I invite you to join the Discord server if you'd like.
There are two trading sessions, but it's going to be a very, very interesting weekend. If you'd like a little more detail on all this macroeconomic data, I've also provided quite a few explanations on the Discord server, where I've posted charts with explanatory text to give you a better idea of where we stand.
I've also given some brief explanations about the bond market and the US, which is very interesting to watch right now, particularly the overbought situation on the SNP500. And of course, I'm currently providing quite in- depth coverage of the situation in Germany. We talked about it this morning on the VIP trading show, and the situation in Germany, which is...
This is being closely scrutinized, firstly because, as you know, Germany and Rouen play a very important role in Europe, but also because we're invested in the DAX, so naturally it's going to interest us and directly impact us. We'll now conclude this video with statements from the CEO of BlackRock.
As you know, BlackRock is the largest investment fund in the world, and BlackRock, in particular, submitted a Bitcoin ETF application to the SEP a few weeks ago. As you know, they're partly responsible for this huge Bitcoin ETF hype of the last few weeks. Of course, you know, there were ETF applications submitted two years ago, so it's not exactly new.
But the hype was reignited with BlackRock's application, and so, in fact, Larynk stated that, in his opinion, Bitcoin is an international asset that will serve as a store of value, a safe haven, and that will potentially become a digital North. So, it's obviously a very positive statement from the very top.
BlackRock, who, as we know, haven't always been very enthusiastic about Bitcoin, okay, you have to know that BlackRock has very often made rather negative statements about Bitcoin, considering it only used for illicit activities, for criminals, for terrorism, etc., etc. So it's rather surprising to hear Larryfing speak this way.
And then this will allow for the large-scale adoption and democratization of Bitcoin. Now, let's not kid ourselves, he's clever, okay, to say that. Now, of course, he's offering a Bitcoin ETF, so of course he also has to start opening up about Bitcoin if he wants people to buy his ETF. He offers a Bitcoin ETF to his clients, and then in the end, he says that Bitcoin is rubbish.
His clients aren't going to go for that Bitcoin. So, obviously, it's communication, we know, but there you go, it's still a good thing anyway. We have these powerful leaders who communicate. The growing awareness of taking Bitcoin seriously was also evident in recent statements by Jérôme Boel, particularly before the US Congress two weeks ago.
He clearly stated that cryptocurrencies were being taken seriously and that they had an impact on the American economy. This contrasts sharply with just a few months or years ago, when institutions and leaders were somewhat skeptical and arrogant towards cryptocurrencies. Now, there's a real sense of seriousness regarding cryptocurrencies, for reasons we know, including financial ones.
But it's still a positive point, and we'll be discussing this further throughout the day. So, folks, that's the end of this video. Thank you so much for watching. As always, I encourage you to like this video, subscribe, and especially join the Discord server. I'll see you there right after this and throughout the day.
And of course, we'll meet again at 2 PM. Today's trading session is here, folks. Thank you so much for watching this video, thank you so much for listening and watching. I wish you all a very, very good day. This was Alex for Blockchain Capital.
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