저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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AI 반도체·메모리 강세 지속을 언급하며 엔비디아 실적 기대와 SpaceX 대규모 AI 인프라 발주를 긍정 평가. 다만 금리·유가 상승, 소비(K자 회복) 둔화, 자동차·소매 리스크를 경계하며 일부 차익실현 후 분산을 강조. 메모리는 수요 호조 속 경쟁 증설 위험을 지적.
다듬은 글
I am not against technology. I am not a Luddite. I love data centers so much that I wish I could live in one. And I slept next to a nuclear power plant during that rather shameful time when I lived out of a car. No police officer has ever woken up someone sleeping in a 1978 Ford Fairmont in the parking lot next to some long-closed new development in Sacramento .
However, on a day like today, when the Dow Jones gained 385 points and we were up 89%, and the Nasdaq jumped 1.29%. People talk about these guys running around with their hair on fire trying to pull you out of the biggest winners of all time, the stocks of memory companies, DRAM, the famous high-bandwidth companies like Micron and SK Hynix.
That's my nickname for SK Hynix because this monster from Korea, currently trading here, has taken over our trading and often determines how our chip stocks ultimately do . Yes, the addition of this stock to the Nasdaq 100, which is due to happen in the near future, plus the inclusion of SpaceX has added a bunch of volatility.
Something I don't think you really appreciate. Oh, and I wish I had some hair to set it on fire. But that's old news. Some of you complained to me that I didn't include you in SanDisk, whose stock is up 570% year to date . Micron rose 240%, Seagate 224%, Dell 221%, and Western Digital 218%. I don't know how this is possible.
I've liked Micron for a long time . And if you asked Michael Dell, who is the most positive person in the media about his amazing company, I bet he would say Jim Cramer. So I'm not against technology, but I like diversification. We've had some nasty days lately where all those stocks I just mentioned have been smashed.
I started this show in 2005, determined to keep people in the market and not go bankrupt. Many of you forget that an entire generation of investors was destroyed by online betting. Another entire cohort was wiped out, simply wiped out by the Great Recession because they owned too many financial-related stocks.
They just didn't know about it. These two events are the reasons why we all defaulted on index funds in the future. And Sarat, it's good to see you. It's been a while since I talked to you on set . Where do you think things are now? We've seen markets, some people think, at elevated levels. Jamie Dimon recently said he wouldn't necessarily invest in markets at these levels .
What about you? So, you know, it's kind of an assumption that this is the stock market. And if you look at where we are right now, yes, there is definitely a lot of foam in certain areas. The estimates are broad, whether it's semiconductors or technology. But in our opinion, a significant portion of the money beneath the surface has gone from value and even growth at a reasonable price to truly super growth.
And if we look not just at sectors but also at individual companies, high-quality companies have sold off or are simply trading at multiples that we haven't seen in 5-10 years. So we're still finding opportunities , whether it's in healthcare, like a company like Stryker, which typically trades at a price to earnings ratio of 25-30%, and now trades at a price to earnings ratio of 19%.
Uh, you know, it's in the orthopedic business. It will grow, or, you know, a high-end company like Ferrari . What traded for years at a price of 25% EBITDA is now trading at a price of 17% EBITDA. So if you want quality and high-quality growth, uh, without paying the price, I think the opportunities are there.
But listen, when you see the macroeconomic situation, rising interest rates, rising oil prices and the market rising along with that, it makes you wonder: do I want to buy the whole market, or do I want to wait, especially now that we're entering reporting season and there are big reports coming out in the next 2 weeks ?
Yes, but the idea that there is some concern is relatively new. Yes, because we've been operating without any concerns for the last few years, but now you've seen the markets essentially boom in the best-case scenarios for a lot of these companies, and you can see where the cash flow is going to come from .
Have you withdrawn money from some of these fast-growing tech companies? We reduced our exposure. Our biggest asset is still Nvidia. But we own Google, Amazon, but not as big companies as in the market. They are indeed present because we consider them to be high-quality companies, but the opportunities will be elsewhere.
But definitely, we take a portion of the profit. I mean, some of these companies have been successful for so long that it begs the question of where else to find other opportunities or just diversify your operations because you don't want to get stuck holding these big positions. Are there reasons for some of these other companies why they are backing away?
You mentioned Stryker or some other companies in healthcare. You mentioned Ferrari. But if you look at the potential for government spending, if they're cut when it comes to healthcare, if you look at higher oil prices, is there a reason why you would pull back, say, in consumer companies or something like that?
Do you feel that the consumer segment is still very strong? So, the biggest concern is the K shape, right? If K's growth continues, these companies will feel good. Lower K, I think, will affect many other companies. And these are things that we're not really prone to, and I'm worried about retail. I think it could seriously hurt .
I think in the automotive industry , you know, Ferrari is a high- end car, right? It's not really dependent on income levels, but I'm worried about auto parts, auto parts suppliers, automobile companies in that sense. But the experience of people that we see now after COVID is that they want to travel.
They want to do many things, even with a lower income. So the question is, what then influences it? And I think the higher the prices, the less people travel. You will see some of this too. But we have n't seen it yet. Yesterday we received a report from GM. And they came in with strong numbers and actually said they expect some of these positive trends that they've seen, not only in terms of consumer strength but also in terms of their ability to continue to improve operating profit , and they expect that to continue into 2027 .
Isn't it enough when companies say things like this? Are you still skeptical that this can remain true? Yes, because the thing about GM is not just about them, it's a macroeconomic situation. And the first thing people recoil at is, well, I don't need to upgrade my car. But I'll go for the experience anyway.
So I think that's why these stocks are trading at such low multiples. Therefore, it is very difficult to invest in the long term. That's why you want to succeed. Nvidia just received an important vote of confidence. Trading in artificial intelligence semiconductors has been incredibly volatile. A week ago, investors were convinced that the artificial intelligence boom was unstoppable.
The next day, they question whether the whole cycle has gone too far. But something important happened this week. Nvidia received an extremely powerful vote of confidence from Elon Musk. SpaceX is expected to systematically expand its artificial intelligence infrastructure, discussing plans for several gigawatts of additional computing power.
And a significant portion of that infrastructure is expected to rely on Nvidia. This is important because this is not just another analyst raising the price target. This is another big customer capital directed towards AI infrastructure, and the main thing is what it says about demand. Hyperscalers have repeatedly told investors that they are still limited in supply.
They want more computing, they need more computing, and in many cases they still can't get enough. And that's when Nvidia's upcoming earnings reports could be extremely important. The company's report is due on August 26, and investors will be watching for much more than just headlines. They want to know how fast the wearable platform is evolving.
They want to see if demand remains stronger than available supply, and they also want another update on the cycle of large-scale spending on AI infrastructure. So far, the evidence continues to point in one direction. Demand remains strong, but NVIDIA isn't the only company benefiting. Broadcom has also been one of the main winners in the field of artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Its AI semiconductor portfolio is vast, and its portfolio provides extremely strong visibility into future revenues. And the story of the assessment becomes interesting. Following the recent semiconductor correction, several large AI infrastructure stocks are trading at valuations that look much less extreme compared to their earnings growth.
And this is important because the market does not need these companies to increase dramatically in price. They just need profits to keep catching up with stock price. Now Micron presents a completely different opportunity. The company is at the center of one of the biggest bottlenecks in artificial intelligence infrastructure – memory.
The world can't make more GPUs . The world can create more GPUs , but if there isn't enough high-speed memory to pair with those GPUs, the entire system becomes constant. And that's why memory has become such an important part of the AI supply chain . Micron already has huge liabilities enshrined in a take-or-pay agreement.
And that gives the company what investors love during an uncertain market – at least visibility. But an important issue still hangs over the memory trade – competition . When margins become extremely attractive, competitors have a reason to increase capacity. We have already seen a massive investment plan from major memory manufacturers.
China is also aggressively developing its semiconductor capabilities. Ultimately, revenue will increase.
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