저자: TomLee · 외국인
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결론: 톰 리는 S&P500이 올해 신고가를 경신하고 비트코인은 5년 내 20만 달러에 도달할 수 있다고 전망했다. 주간 전술적 매수 배경: 고용지표 강세로 금리가 오르고 긴축 장기화 우려가 커진 상황에서, 근원 CPI가 0.2% 이하로 나올 것으로 보고 전술적 매수를 권했다. 실제로 CPI가 예상보다 낮게 나오며 S&P500은 주간 약 107포인트 상승해 4505에 마감했다. 시장 전망: 4200선 돌파 후 4505는 2022년 고점과 저점 사이 피보나치 76% 되돌림 지점으로, 이를 돌파해 지지선으로 전환됐다고 봤다. 이에 따라 과거 고점 4819 재도달 가능성이 높고, 올해 신고가 및 5000 근접 가능성도 언급했다. 단, 연착륙과 실적 가시화가 전제 조건이다. 실적·유동성: 이번 분기 S&P 편입 기업의 약 절반이 이익 성장을 보이고, 연말에는 전체가 이익 성장을 보일 수 있다고 전망했다. 현금 5.5조 달러가 대기 중이라 추가 상승 여력이 있다고 봤다. 금리 전망: 7월 25bp 인상은 확실시되며, 이후 1~2회 추가 인상 가능성을 열어뒀다. 다만 1~2회 인상은 신고가를 막지 않으나, 최종금리 6%대면 주식에 역풍이 된다고 경고했다. 비트코인: 5년 내 20만 달러 전망을 유지했다. 근거는 금융 접근성 한계와 자금 유입으로, 비트코인 ETF 승인이 중요한 촉매라고 봤다. ETF 유입 1달러당 시가총액 약 4배 효과를 가정했다. 리스크: 연착륙 실패, 실적 둔화, 금리 장기 고착이 주요 하방 요인이다.
다듬은 글
last week I think almost exactly week was it 6 15 Tom I think it was right about the same time last Monday fun starts Tom Lee joined us with a tactical buy uh he said it would be a 100 Point gain or more in the s p uh when the CPI came in cooler than expected here's what he said we thought a tactical sort of opportunity was emerging because last week the market sold off because the jobs reports are strong yields really popped so investors are kind of fed higher for longer a little bearish into this week and I think core CPI could come in at 0.2 or better so it could be a huge downside to project and that CPI reading did indeed come in cooler than expected and the s p i finished this week at 4505 I think was 33.98 is where it closed the previous week so that's 107 points joining us now to follow up Tom Lee a co-founder of funstrac global advisors and a CNBC contributor the thing is Tom you had to be right about the CPI and that that's pretty good that was kind of expected but then you had to be right about the reaction which is on any data that comes in you never know because it's good is bad bad is good good jobs numbers bad jobs you just never know so in that case you had to be right about both and you had to be right about the you know how large it was in in the timing which is not something you want to do a lot you're not going to do that this way uh as you mentioned last week it wasn't wise to do that last week and yes I I I don't think it's it was wise to do but I thought it was important at the time because our clients were quite nervous about hot inflation after those job report numbers so we just thought it was it was an opportunity to make a trade but it's a trade but what was more important for me was that as we tested the 4200 level which most people saw as a reflex Rally or a rally in a bear market and even when we got through it it was like well we're still at the high end of the range and to to make the call that we will significantly go above 4 200 and break out of that range to almost a new bull I don't know whether the s p actually is up 20 but that was what was significant now I don't know what that means from where we get we could still turn and go back down to four thousand that's what we need you here for is that going to happen uh well 4505 is a very important level for markets because it it is a 76 percent recovery you know a Fibonacci from the 2022 highs to the lows so now that we closed above it I I actually think the probabilities favor us going back to the to the prior highs so we've cleared 45-5 essentially become support now that's interesting uh so most people I've seen the latest thesis is that we got here but new highs might be a couple of years away we could do more threading you think we hit new highs this year uh yes all time on in the s p yeah I think we'll we'll be well above the prior highs well above the prior highs yes what do you put the prior high at what's the exactly 48 19 48 19.
so that's another you think another 10 percent this year or more or more yeah I mean I I think there's even a chance that we could be you know close to 5 000 but a lot would have to go right to get towards five thousand like a soft Landing a soft landing and earnings visibly have to start turning I think this quarter you know about half of the s p is going to start posting earnings growth and you know by the end of the year it may be 100 of the s p posting earnings growth uh there's still five and a half trillion in cash sitting on the sidelines um you know that's almost a trillion higher than it was at the start of the year so there's still a lot of skepticism and then inflation has to be on that Glide path lower which we're we're pretty confident that what we saw last week on CPI the core being 0.2 you know you might see 0.2 or less in July and August so if we get a few more of those then how much of this is dependent on where are you on what the FED does then in all this uh well I think they've committed to a July hike so that that 25 basis points is there but then I think that there's going to be a debate whether that's the last hike for the cycle is that part of your Calculus in terms of where are these numbers uh you know one one more hike I think you could still get to all-time highs so something in November not even two you think 50 I was thinking 25.50 it that we're sort of splitting hairs here that's right yeah one or two more hikes I don't think um hurts all-time Highs but if the Fed thinks inflation is a lot stickier and and then maybe terminal rates of six that that would obviously be a headwind for stuff so tell me your crazy Bitcoin stuff again because it always seems crazy and then sometimes it happens but a hundred thousand by one uh you know something around 200 000 within five years two hundred thousand yes within five years yes and there are this is a better prediction than 100 points in a week five years I think is much smarter for you because we could all be dead it's a better time frame right we may not be there to uh our window might be closing 200 000 yeah because what just give us the the like the underlying thesis here well are Bitcoin is very useful I think in the U.S there's a tendency to think the financial system works well for everybody but for people who have money it does work well but you know even in the US 46.
you need an ETF for for that to happen for example do you need all sorts of other things in the regulatory scheme to change for your numbers to get to where you want them to be you do it's it is flows okay I think the Bitcoin ETF I think people underestimate how important that will be because if you think mutual funds will then buy it and other people do learn and and the multiplier right now is is roughly four to one meaning a dollar of inflows is four dollars to the change in the price of bitcoin's market cap so you know if you get a 100 billion or 200 billion of demand that's right you know if you don't get an ETF for example then what well then then you're going to rely on sort of organic Network effects but I do think an ETF you know is very likely but that would also be an important a very important and underestimated catalyst great got a lot uh a lot of predictions there that are going to be testable once again which you're not you don't shy away from which is why we love you Tom thank you
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