저자: 미상 · 외국인
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비트코인 도미넌스(BTC.D)와 알트코인 가격의 역상관 관계를 설명하고, 이를 활용한 매매 타이밍 전략을 소개한다. 도미넌스는 전체 암호화폐 시가총액 중 비트코인 비중으로, 2019년 8월 18일 기준 69.34%였으며 2015년 99%, 2017년 약 35%까지 변동했다. 도미넌스가 하락하면 투자자가 알트코인으로 이동하는 것이고, 상승하면 알트코인을 팔고 비트코인으로 회귀하는 것으로 해석한다. 2019년 8월 16일 이후 약 11.6% 하락 과정에서 알트코인이 반등했다고 언급한다. 도미넌스와 ETH/BTC 등 BTC 페어는 강한 음의 상관관계를 보이며 USD 페어보다 BTC 페어가 더 잘 작동한다고 주장한다. 일부 구간에서는 상관이 약하다는 점도 인정한다. 전략으로는 도미넌스를 지지·저항으로 보고 저항이 지지로 전환될 때 알트코인 매도, 도미넌스 50일 이동평균선 하향 돌파 시 ETH/BTC 매수 등을 제시한다. 분봉 단위 단기 스캘핑도 언급하나 권장하지는 않는다고 밝힌다. 진행자는 기술적 지표에 대한 신뢰가 낮다고 말하며, 전략의 유효성은 백테스트로 직접 검증할 것을 권한다.
다듬은 글
Oh traitors welcome to a new video on Bitcoin dominance today's video is going to be on the relationship between Bitcoin dominance and all coins and what this can provide us is really when is a good time to hold all coins and when is a good time to probably sell our old coins and go to just to hold BTC so a pretty important metric for lots of traders out there who want to trade all coins or who are just curious and learning more about this relationship than about the show so first an explanation of what we're looking at this is btcd that's how you get this data taken exactly that this is Bitcoin dominance which means they take the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies they add them together they take the Bitcoin market cap they divide the Bitcoin market cap by the total market cap and represent that as a percent and that percent shows us of the total cryptocurrency market cap how much of that is bitcoins market cap now currently as of August 18th it's sixty nine point three four meaning that's sixty nine point three four percent of all capital of a cryptocurrency and cryptocurrency is Bitcoin you know the total market cap 69 percent sixty nine point three three percent of it is just big way you can see that back in 2015 this level was insanely high we went to 99 percent of the entire crypto space was just Bitcoin and then this actually completely flipped on itself in 2017 where we had something like 35 percent Bitcoin dominance now you may wonder okay that's interesting and all but how do I actually trade this you know what's the strategy that we can use when Bitcoin dominance is high when it's low when we think it's gonna rise we think it's gonna fall well I can answer that with a visual let me just show you the F BTC rate and I think you'll see it's in purple lovely I think you'll see exactly when's a good time to load up on those old coins so you can see right here I mean first of all mizzu man this is the daily chart of FB TC on Finance of EPT cm finance and Bitcoin dominance when Bitcoin dominance made a high beef BTC actually made a very low low as you can see here he was all way down to here and it didn't reach that low for a long time this would have been you know I mean this is 20/20 hindsight understand me but this would have been a really good time to buy EP BTC because you can see Bitcoin dominance begins to fall and as Bitcoin Dom it's begins to fall and this really becomes and do a downtrend of the Bitcoin dominance you know if PTC just goes way up it just goes from here all the way up to here and it actually tops out when Bitcoin Dom its bottoms out you can see it's kind of like it's just a perfect negative relationship here negative negatively correlated relationship here and you can even quantify this mathematically if you want oops I don't mean to do that I'm going to do this guy with a correlation coefficient okay I don't know why it's all caps it's very angry today all right so this is going to show us the gist mathematical correlation yeah and you can see that basically I mean that this is hilarious the it's almost negative one a lot of the time so what that means guys is that the correlation between the market the Bitcoin dominance and if BTC on Finance is basically it's very negative there are some points of time where it gets a little bit you know higher correlation but I think the only reason before that was because of very low volatility here very low volatility here and in very low volatility patterns you know some things can be kind of equal even if bitcoins kind of going up any pcs kind of going down they're gonna be more similar than in times like this where it's just such a you know cookie cutter clear negatively correlated asset now you may think is this just coins that are traded to Bitcoin you know that's a fair assumption you might make but let me show you guys FP USD let's do it on us let's do Biff next sure so this is you can see very similar where it is ET USD make a top here where Bitcoin diamonds mix bottom and then if USD makes a bottom or point dominance makes the top and then it does it again bitcoin dominance makes a bottom and eath USD in purple makes the top so it's not just gonna be these BTC pairs but what I found personally from analyzing this relationship is that BTC pairs work better so if we look at xcm BTC LT c bt c x RP BTC intend to trade those rather than just treating you know X or PUSD or LTC USD because if you want to trade in this kind of manner I'd recommend probably just sticking with the BTC pairs now let's go to a lower timeframe where things get a little bit more funky and interesting you can still see this kind of negatively correlated this beautiful negatively correlated relationship between each PTC and Bitcoin dominance you can see makes the top Bitcoin dominate Phoenix bottom if BTC you know makes a bottom and Bitcoin makes the top currently we are in a downtrend of Bitcoin dominance and each BTC where you know is in an uptrend now let's let's sub in another guy because I've talked a lot about BTC let's just do a random coin I'll do CIL no let's see this relationship here yeah this one's just completely almost like falling apart because Bitcoin dominance rows the cil BTC fell as you can see and when Bitcoin dominance was was really rising as EIL BTC was was really falling as you can see here and then when Bitcoin Dominic's began to fell we saw people beginning to buy up zeal at the CIL BTC and zll PTC actually rose a bit as you can see here now before we go on any further of me showing these correlations I want to explain the why the reasoning behind why this is happening because without the reasoning you know this probably isn't gonna be as important so when Bitcoin dominance is falling what does that mean well if Bitcoin dominance is falling what what that typically means is that people are becoming more comfortable with buying all coins and I say that because if a lot of people leave Bitcoin to buy all coins a lot of people are let's say buying XRP be BTC buying you know see BC by EF BTC and they're selling Bitcoin to buy these coins well they're selling Bitcoin and they're buying these coins which is going to raise the market cap of those all coins which is going to diminish the Bitcoin market dominance which is going to make it fall when BTC dominance is rising what does that mean well that's an even way more clear thing what that typically means is that people are selling their all coins just to stay in Bitcoin okay so right now to put that theory into direct application what's happening right now what's happening right now since you know August 16th and we fell about 11.6 percent well what's happening right now is people are from here to here I'm not saying this is gonna continue happening the people have become a little bit more comfortable with buying all coins and consequently all coins have risen bit as you can see they're you know I could take any other el cajon I could take this one's a kind of a strange all coin at times but it look at that it's got a very similar relation relationship it makes its bottom when Bitcoin dominance makes it stop and when Bitcoin dominance and this is just a beautiful relationship right here you can see that if X or P BTC just really skyrocketed when Bitcoin dominance began to film begin to fall began to fall and you can see here when Bitcoin diamonds made a high in beta low that would have been a great time to buy extra P BTC by the way and then as Bitcoin diamonds began to fell people became a little bit more comfortable with by X or P X or P BTC went a lot higher so there's a pretty clear relationship here you know I could just keep popped out my coins most of these coins move together as you can see you know xcm makes a bottom point bitcoin Dominic's mate when Bitcoin dominance dominance makes a top but this would say it doesn't have as much of a clear correlation yeah I mean it kind of does it goes lower when this goes higher it goes a bit higher when this goes lower but not as clear as some others but what strategy can we actually apply now we went from we talked about with the correlation the relationship between Bitcoin dominance and these all coins but how can we actually put this into theory well I had a few ideas with this guy's can this guy go away the left scale is just gonna be kind of annoying good that whatever we'll deal with it you could try to think of Bitcoin dominance as an asset meaning that you're trading it like support resistance where resistance becomes support support becomes resistance and actually I gotta be honest with you guys and say that I kind of do see that here we had very clear resistance of Bitcoin dominance oops very clear resistance on Bitcoin dominance and it actually became support so what do we do with this information well if you noticed Bitcoin Dominic's dontnod Dominic's Bitcoin dominance making resistance here and it's strong resistance well after price rises when you see Bitcoin down it's coming back to support and you believe that support will become the resistance become support then this is the time where you may want to sell all coins because you believe that Bitcoin dominance is about to rise okay and that actually happened again it happened here again guys wear resistance became support I mean this one's not as beautiful you know I can just I can just show it here it's kind of beautiful but it's not like you know very clear but resistance became support here as you can see we broke resistance we retest its resistance as support and price rose this would have been a not terrible time to sell all coins as you can see here so if you had bought all coins here you know it's weird for me to say buy here and sell here but there's such a negative relationship with the Bitcoin dominance and all coins that you would want to PI all coins here you know you do want to buy xcm BTC when it was up here I mean that was the lowest rate it had possibly gotten too great time to buy all coins and then you probably do want to sell it when Bitcoin dominance makes a you know when resistance becomes support because if you had done that you would have gotten in here and you would have gotten out around here as you can see and let me just put up my handy dandy FB t FB TC because this one's relationship is probably by far the best it's just so clean you know selling FB TC eath BTC here would have been a beauty buying BTC if you had known to buy it at you know when when diamonds reach 71.5 and body BTC here that would meant pretty nice too so that's one thing that you can do you can you can try to look at resistance and support that way we give it a PTC because in another way you don't always have to use resistance as support and sub in support becoming resistance let's say you see resistance here resistance here when youth believe that this is going to become resistance again you could think about buying all coins when Bitcoin dominance breaches of resistance level that seems like a strategy that I would call moderately sound moderately sound yes and we don't always have to use you know support resistance I'm not the biggest fan anymore of technical indicators however what if we were to put on SMA you know a smooth moving average and let's say we're gonna do a I don't want to seven wait is this a normal moving up okay now I just want a I just want my normal moving average I haven't used these in a long time nope just my moving average and I do not want to add nine that's okay is it not gonna let me do settings okay I think it's like frozen for some reason I want this guy to go to fifty dude come on okay I just keep clicking the Settings button you think it's gonna eventually eventually you know get happier and allow me to change the setting I've noticed this today I don't know what's going on with trading view maybe it's me maybe it's not thumb but they just don't want me to change the settings here yeah oh but of course I can change the settings in the second one because that makes perfect sense right that makes perfect perfect perfect sense yep but I can't change this guy okay enough complaining about me not being able to change it what I was gonna say is something you could do is compare the Bitcoin dominance and then putting moving average on Bitcoin dominance maybe if I actually get rid of this guy here it'll be a little less mad I'm gonna try this one more time and if this doesn't work I'm just gonna give up on these technical indicators okay I have fully given up on these technical indicators they have let me down that is no okay you got to go away give me f bt ptc thank you you're back what I was gonna say is yeah you could use a moving average on Bitcoin dominance where you can do something like a 50 or in a hundred and if you see let's say Bitcoin dominance rising above this moving average and that could be a sign that Bitcoin dominance will likely continue rising which would mean that it might be a good time to sell off points if you notice that there's a moving average that you're 50 moving average is like let's say it's like hovering here it's like hovering around here and bitcoin dominance was here at this point time and you see cross below this you know moving average here then that may be actually a pretty good time to buy out quince and if you would if you had bought here I mean this would have been a beautiful that exact spot that was talking about would have been a pretty good spot to buy each BTC because that's right before price rose here consulted and then rose more as you can see here so this would have been if you'd seen you know this moving average break and Bitcoin diamonds Pablo you buy each BTC and that would have a nice there are a lot of things that you can do to take advantage of the correlation between Bitcoin dominance and between all coins another one you could do is even some all coins that are less or known you could go test those so you know these coins down here I could look at power BTC you know and see its relationship yeah so very very very correlated you know Bitcoin diamonds makes a high-power BTC makes a low Bitcoin down when it's Falls a bit higher BTC Rises Bitcoin down this begins to rise power BTC begins to fall you know the coin dominance Rises power BTC Falls it's just a it's a pretty it's a pretty clean correlation between most all coins because most all coins do move together you can trade these kind of relationships with Bitcoin dominance now how you use this information is up to you you could if you want go lower timeframe I probably wouldn't recommend this but this is kind of a cool asset that you can trade it's kind of like an SNP you know if you've ever traded stocks before because if you see hey like a sharp rise in this on a very short time frame such as the 5 minute like I can look at I don't know if this is gonna be as clean but I'm assuming power BTC just fell yeah and it did part me to see did fall but let me get a prettier guy prettier all coin here yeah and look at the head isn't that beautiful Bitcoin dominance just kind of skyrocketed here and eath BTC just yeah fell apart it fell from 196 down to like 182 so pretty big jump down just because Bitcoin down that's in the very short term I can even go one minute and you can see that you know it's kind of crazy this relationship another example I do not know what's going on here that is a strange pattern of Bitcoin dominance that's just like I think the artists kind of screw that screw that part of the painting up there okay what you see here is this quick fall in Bitcoin dominance each BTC rose and if you believe that Bitcoin diamonds was gonna continue to fall you could buy each BTC here for a scalp and Bitcoin down this just falls apart again Bitcoin dominance falls from 70 down to I think like sixty nine point eight eight and on that tiny fall youth BTC rose now if we go to the present time oops you can see the same relationship playing out even on the one minute time frame isn't that cool you know we have HPT see Sully falling because Bitcoin downs is slowly rising if you think that their coin dominance is gonna continue to rise then it may be a good time to sell youth BTC however if you think that Bitcoin dominance is in long-term downtrend then this may be a good time to buy youth BTC because if Bitcoin dominance Falls eath BTC will rise it's a cool indicator guys I hope that this can help you on the 1 minute on the one hour of the four hour the one-day the one-week whatever timeframe suits you do some back testing with this and you can try to add this into your arsenal to try to trade all coins in a kind of a different way by trading it with an index the BTC dominance index which again you get by typing in that see you guys and happy trading
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