저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인은 극단적 신념이 아닌 포트폴리오 헤지 수단으로 실용적으로 설명해야 대중화된다는 결론이다. 비트코인은 전통 금융 인프라에 대한 분산형 헤지로 설명하는 것이 효과적이라고 주장했다. 열정적 신념 대신 단순하고 실용적인 언어가 어머니 세대까지 확산시키는 길이라고 강조했다. 기업 재무책임자들이 다양한 이색 보험과 헤지를 사면서도 비트코인은 경력 리스크 때문에 보유하지 않는다고 지적했다. 해결책은 실용적 프레이밍이라고 덧붙였다. SPAC은 본인에게는 미래 실적을 상세히 말할 수 있고 대규모 자본을 투입할 수 있는 수단이며, 기업에는 18개월 IPO 절차를 100일로 줄이고 가격 확실성을 제공한다고 설명했다. 소셜미디어는 권력과 영향력을 재배분해 정치 지도자가 온라인 운동을 조직하는 인물로 바뀌고 있다고 진단했다. 정치 전략은 양 진영의 교집합을 잡는 중도주의로 수렴할 것이라고 전망했다. 온라인 신뢰와 딥페이크 문제는 블록체인이나 디지털 신원으로 해결될 수 있는 기회라고 언급했다. 9·11 이후 감시국가 체제가 강화되었다고 비판적으로 짚었다. 본 영상은 특정 종목에 대한 구체적 가격 예측은 제시하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
my whole view with bitcoin was always that it's much better to be pragmatic and lay out a moderate case which is that it's a hedge in a portfolio um against the sort of traditionalist financial infrastructure and so many people would get mad because they would anchor on this extremist view that it had to be everything it had to be the solution and fantasy at everything right when you think about products that really get to scale there's a simplicity and what that simplicity gives is people a very simple decision to make do i want to use this or do i not want to use it and so if you want you know for example bitcoin to get the mass market scale the most powerful thing that you can do is describe it in simple pragmatic terms that don't require zealous belief um and so it's just a it's just an example to me that sort of reinforces this idea that extremism never wins and kind of like centrism is sort of the the value maximizing function it just requires um sort of like a de-escalated like i find that a lot of people in bitcoin and it's so funny because like many of them got there well after i did they're just so arrogant about it and i don't know maybe i'm just dumber but like i just don't understand why people need to believe so much versus you know view it more pragmatically and unemotionally because i think they'll find more success in the more unemotional you know treatment of what it is so like another example is like the entire d5 movement i was i got laughed at because somebody asked me laura shin asked me what defy was and i was like i have no idea but i own bitcoin and and i was just telling the truth which is like i just don't i don't have the time to learn about all this stuff and you know at some point somebody will explain it to me and i'll know a little bit better but it's not to say that it's not important but it is to say that everything has a time in place and if we are going to focus our energies on making bitcoin mass market and scale we have to dial down this zealous rhetoric and dial up pragmatist rhetoric pragmatist rhetoric is what will get your mother and your grandmother to have bitcoin in their wallet i've started an insurance company that's doing a bunch of very very esoteric exotic insurance policies um and you know one of the interesting things that i've learned with my co-founder my partner in this he's the ceo i'm just the chairman but is how many of these corporations view their balance sheets and you know how they're buying all kinds of esoteric insurance and the instant thing that pops to the top of my head is wow these guys should also own bitcoin as something like that if they're going to own cat bonds and they're going to own business interruption risk insurance and all kinds of you know hedges on pmi my gosh why don't they own some bitcoin well it's because the presentation of that idea is done in such in such a way where they're forced to make a leap too far and because if you if you decompose what the treasurer or the cfo is is how the lens in which they're making decisions it's just career risk it's it's like it's that old adage it's just it's you're never going to get fired for buying ibm right and so you're never going to get fired for just having the money sit in a corporate account with earning zero at jp morgan then you know pounding your fists on the table for bitcoin um so what we need is again more pragmatism around what it is um i've i've always found the presentation of the idea as a deeply fundamentally uncorrelated hedge to the existing financial infrastructure to be kind of boring not that salacious but very pragmatic and effective the spac is really important well i'll give you why it's important to me and then i'll give you why it's important to an entrepreneur selfishly for me it allows me to basically be a conduit and act as a principal while i take companies public meaning i can use my balance sheet to basically empower companies to fulfill a mission that i believe and underwrite in and then i can be a big part of of them as they grow and scale and so you know the only places to make money in the in the private technology markets are all the way up front at series a you know the sequoias and the benchmarks and the andreesens of the world i used to do that at social capital we did a good job but it's very hard and the the returns are extremely long dated or you just wait for these companies to get baked and do it at the back end where instead of putting in tens of millions you put in hundreds of millions or billions if you're able to do it and you own the same amount as they end up owning anyways 10 12 15 20 um and then you can basically help them grow and scale so that's selfishly you know why i was attracted to a spec but then then now you get into the venn diagram part of why i like it and why it makes sense for an entrepreneur it's because you can talk about the future and the most important thing in underwriting returns as you and i know in disruptive technologies is all about future returns you know i don't care about 2019 and 2018.
tell me about 2028 and 2029 what is your plan and the only way that you can talk about that when you're bringing a company public is through an s4 process because it's a merger because the s1 process doesn't allow that the sec rules are very strict around you know basically talking about future prospects future strategy future cash flows you can't even produce a forecast so the s4 and a spac you know at the intersection between now my desires and the entrepreneur's desires is about talking about the future in detail and then for the entrepreneur what they get is you know a couple of things that are not as important to me but important to them which is speed you take an 18-month process and compress it to 100 days and certainty of price so you exactly know what your cost of capital is and you and your board can underwrite that and decide whether that's too expensive or not when you see how the establishment reacts to social media today you know i would say that the u.s election is a great window into this the 2016 election was about sort of you know castigating um facebook 2020 has really been the election of you know throwing twitter under the bus um but really what it is is an emerging realization by both the left and the right that social media reallocates power and influence in a way that disrupts the allocation of power and influence um meaning you know it's much more likely and donald trump i think is the canary in the coal mine it's much more likely that future leaders of politics are really people that can um coalesce movements online and in that you're much more likely for the rock or kim kardashian or you know charlie dimiglio to be the next great politician than you are um you know some uh person who's steeped in policy and who really understands what to do social media and just like the way that we organize ourselves now is becoming highly fragmented because you have a tendency you know to seek confirmation bias and what that puts you into is your own echo chain whatever that is that could be um you know believers of climate change versus non-believers you know vaxxers versus anti-vaxxers um you know q anon people versus you know non-qn people across any dimension no matter how normalized or no matter how extreme you know political views are you can find your own echo chamber and you'll you'll stay there gladly because it's it's confirmatory um but you know in a place like the united states where there's still only two political parties and the allocation of power is a binary decision between two people i think what it means is that you then optimize for the lowest common denominator and the political strategy in the future to win i'm not saying it's right but the strategy to win is one of centrism because the centrist platform now embraces you know 50 of the left's agenda and 50 of the rights agenda because that's the only way mathematically to get a plurality just the way that the us has governed the way the electoral college works the way that you know these 50 states are really completely discontinuous bodies of of electoral and political will so basically building a venn diagram and looking for the suggestion of this connection that's it that's that's exactly it i think politics in america for the foreseeable future is a cold calculation of the intersection of venn diagrams and one of the things that that interests me that i'm sure you've got a view on is obviously online trust and digital identity and you know because somewhere within this there's fake news and deep fakes and you know it's becoming it's going to become an issue we don't really know how to deal with it yet how do we how do we solve for this is this a blockchain solution digital identity how do you see this evolving because i think something big is going to come out of this because out of crisis comes opportunity i think you're incredibly right here um my my view on this is that we are um and i've said this before and i think it triggers people but it's true but after 2000 and you know the the attacks in the world trade centers um on 9 11 we had the creation in the united states of something called the patriot act and what that essentially allowed was a level of government oversight that we still have and if anything has gotten even more dramatic than it was even 20 years ago and what it is is basically the creation in over the last 20 years of a modern surveillance state and it's not just an american phenomenon it exists all over western europe it exists in russia it exists in china it exists in every single country but we we made it okay and it was under the guise of our of our physical safety you
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